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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

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Posted
26 minutes ago, jmjhb said:

They spent loads and they're underperformed according to that xG nonsense, basically 

4 minutes ago, Marc505 said:

It's not nonsense 😃

Go on then, explain how it (the xG stuff) isn’t nonsense. 

Posted

It's a statistical model measuring the quality of a chance or a shot based on the outcomes of hundreds even thousands of other similar chances or shots. It's not guesswork or gambling or witchcraft, it's based on reams of statistical analysis.

I don't claim to be an expert in it, or even claim to understand it thoroughly, or even care too much about stats as a whole. But those that do consider it to be extremely accurate and useful.

Posted (edited)

This from a few weeks ago basically 

FmQ95YxXoAAaa9M.jpeg

To me, all this shows is that Ipswich's strikers are ridiculously profligate and that's why they're not winning games, but I'm not an xG nonce

Edited by jmjhb
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Posted
11 minutes ago, Marc505 said:

It's a statistical model measuring the quality of a chance or a shot based on the outcomes of hundreds even thousands of other similar chances or shots. It's not guesswork or gambling or witchcraft, it's based on reams of statistical analysis.

I don't claim to be an expert in it, or even claim to understand it thoroughly, or even care too much about stats as a whole. But those that do consider it to be extremely accurate and useful.

To me, if it was all that accurate, we’d all be making a fortune knowing the result of games before they were played. That’s the thing though; they aren’t accurate.

Posted
2 minutes ago, MickyD said:

To me, if it was all that accurate, we’d all be making a fortune knowing the result of games before they were played. That’s the thing though; they aren’t accurate.

Someone's made an absolute killing convincing people that it is then!

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Marc505 said:

Someone's made an absolute killing convincing people that it is then!

Its good enough for garp, so its good enough for me

Pretty sure it was brentford, ironically enough, who were massively underperforming to xg

Gamblers made a killing sticking with them

 

Id expect xg is a big one in the moneyball world

Buy low and sell high needs you to be able to spot somebody with numbers that scream potential

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Posted
18 minutes ago, barrycowdrill said:

More shots on goal the more chance of scoring. I’ll keep with the old skool approach 

10 shots from 30 yards, or 1 from a yard

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Casino said:

Its good enough for garp, so its good enough for me

Pretty sure it was brentford, ironically enough, who were massively underperforming to xg

Gamblers made a killing sticking with them

 

Id expect xg is a big one in the moneyball world

Buy low and sell high needs you to be able to spot somebody with numbers that scream potential

I once read that Brentford compile a league table based on xG and judge their progress during any given season on that i.e. they might at one stage in reality be in the relegation zone but if the xG league table has them comfortably middle of the road they don't panic

I'm a bit unconvinced myself, especially on it being a statistic because the measurements are subjective, unlike, for example, shots on target

Posted
39 minutes ago, MickyD said:

To me, if it was all that accurate, we’d all be making a fortune knowing the result of games before they were played. That’s the thing though; they aren’t accurate.

Isn’t this how Brentford owner made his fortune?

Posted
47 minutes ago, Casino said:

Its good enough for garp, so its good enough for me

Pretty sure it was brentford, ironically enough, who were massively underperforming to xg

Gamblers made a killing sticking with them

 

Id expect xg is a big one in the moneyball world

Buy low and sell high needs you to be able to spot somebody with numbers that scream potential

Garp who said teams never score from corners ? Wonder what he thought last night 😂😂

Posted
2 hours ago, Marc505 said:

It's a statistical model measuring the quality of a chance or a shot based on the outcomes of hundreds even thousands of other similar chances or shots. It's not guesswork or gambling or witchcraft, it's based on reams of statistical analysis.

I don't claim to be an expert in it, or even claim to understand it thoroughly, or even care too much about stats as a whole. But those that do consider it to be extremely accurate and useful.

It's a pile of owd cack. Pure guesswork from some button-pressing shitehawk's instinctive view of how close, or not, an attempt came to going in. Given that what matters is whether it did, or didn't, go in the guesswork in this made up pile of old doodie is pure Emperor's New Clothes bullsit disguised as a quasi science.

Tomorrow, my views on Nicola Sturgeon.

Posted
9 hours ago, Traf said:

We might as well just win them all and remove any doubt.

 

9 hours ago, green genie said:

101 points. No doubts ? Even allowing for you beating Weds top 2’s max is over 110 and current ppg is 99-100

As tongue in cheek as my suggestion was, do you really think a team would fail to go up with 101pts?

Posted
2 hours ago, Traf said:

 

As tongue in cheek as my suggestion was, do you really think a team would fail to go up with 101pts?

My reply was tongue in cheek as well but think the high 90s will be required for top spot. Think third place will be around 90.

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Posted
20 minutes ago, green genie said:

My reply was tongue in cheek as well but think the high 90s will be required for top spot, Bolton to follow with mid-90s. Think Plymouth, in third place, will be around 90.

That’s better.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, green genie said:

Let’s see where we are after Wembley (if we’re going for counting chickens)

I’m not sure if your own chicken counters are already proclaiming “We’re going to Wem-ber-ley, que sera, sera!” or “Wem-ber-ley, Wem-ber-ley, we’re the famous Plymouth Argyle and we’re going to Wem-ber-ley!”

Ours certainly are.

Posted
7 hours ago, Dr. Feelgood said:

It's a pile of owd cack. Pure guesswork from some button-pressing shitehawk's instinctive view of how close, or not, an attempt came to going in. Given that what matters is whether it did, or didn't, go in the guesswork in this made up pile of old doodie is pure Emperor's New Clothes bullsit disguised as a quasi science.

Tomorrow, my views on Nicola Sturgeon.

Cheers for letting me know.

Posted
4 hours ago, green genie said:

My reply was tongue in cheek as well but think the high 90s will be required for top spot. Think third place will be around 90.

 

3 hours ago, MickyD said:

That’s better.

I think Plymouth will go up with far more than 90. Wednesday have to be our target.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Marc505 said:

Cheers for letting me know.

😂

Sure you were delighted to receive that insight.

Pretty sure I’ve heard Evatt quote expected goals more than once. Like you I’m no expert, but there’s too many professionals use it for it not to be considered useful when looking at data to analyse performance.

Posted
13 minutes ago, desperado said:

😂

Sure you were delighted to receive that insight.

Pretty sure I’ve heard Evatt quote expected goals more than once. Like you I’m no expert, but there’s too many professionals use it for it not to be considered useful when looking at data to analyse performance.

Subjective, quasi-scientific bullshit. If the apparatchiks get hold of this they'll be awarding 0.73 of a goal next.

If it goes in the net, offside/folks not withstanding, it's a goal. If it doesn't it's not.

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