Marc505 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 It's not nonsense 😃 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter MickyD Posted February 15, 2023 Site Supporter Share Posted February 15, 2023 26 minutes ago, jmjhb said: They spent loads and they're underperformed according to that xG nonsense, basically 4 minutes ago, Marc505 said: It's not nonsense 😃 Go on then, explain how it (the xG stuff) isn’t nonsense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marc505 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 It's a statistical model measuring the quality of a chance or a shot based on the outcomes of hundreds even thousands of other similar chances or shots. It's not guesswork or gambling or witchcraft, it's based on reams of statistical analysis. I don't claim to be an expert in it, or even claim to understand it thoroughly, or even care too much about stats as a whole. But those that do consider it to be extremely accurate and useful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TM Trotter Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Crikey. 2.5 seasons of Evattball and we've got a WW thread that looks like the screen of a hedge fund manager's laptop! Whatever happened to screams of GERRI'IN'T'BOX!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmjhb Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 (edited) This from a few weeks ago basically To me, all this shows is that Ipswich's strikers are ridiculously profligate and that's why they're not winning games, but I'm not an xG nonce Edited February 15, 2023 by jmjhb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter MickyD Posted February 15, 2023 Site Supporter Share Posted February 15, 2023 11 minutes ago, Marc505 said: It's a statistical model measuring the quality of a chance or a shot based on the outcomes of hundreds even thousands of other similar chances or shots. It's not guesswork or gambling or witchcraft, it's based on reams of statistical analysis. I don't claim to be an expert in it, or even claim to understand it thoroughly, or even care too much about stats as a whole. But those that do consider it to be extremely accurate and useful. To me, if it was all that accurate, we’d all be making a fortune knowing the result of games before they were played. That’s the thing though; they aren’t accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marc505 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, MickyD said: To me, if it was all that accurate, we’d all be making a fortune knowing the result of games before they were played. That’s the thing though; they aren’t accurate. Someone's made an absolute killing convincing people that it is then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted February 15, 2023 Site Supporter Share Posted February 15, 2023 XG obviously has lots of data about how good a chance is, but it does it take into account the qualities/form of the fella who is trying to finish? A human factor involved which is almost immeasurable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrycowdrill Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 More shots on goal the more chance of scoring. I’ll keep with the old skool approach Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Casino Posted February 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 15, 2023 22 minutes ago, Marc505 said: Someone's made an absolute killing convincing people that it is then! Its good enough for garp, so its good enough for me Pretty sure it was brentford, ironically enough, who were massively underperforming to xg Gamblers made a killing sticking with them Id expect xg is a big one in the moneyball world Buy low and sell high needs you to be able to spot somebody with numbers that scream potential Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Casino Posted February 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 15, 2023 18 minutes ago, barrycowdrill said: More shots on goal the more chance of scoring. I’ll keep with the old skool approach 10 shots from 30 yards, or 1 from a yard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Lt. Aldo Raine Posted February 15, 2023 Members Share Posted February 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, Casino said: Its good enough for garp, so its good enough for me Pretty sure it was brentford, ironically enough, who were massively underperforming to xg Gamblers made a killing sticking with them Id expect xg is a big one in the moneyball world Buy low and sell high needs you to be able to spot somebody with numbers that scream potential I once read that Brentford compile a league table based on xG and judge their progress during any given season on that i.e. they might at one stage in reality be in the relegation zone but if the xG league table has them comfortably middle of the road they don't panic I'm a bit unconvinced myself, especially on it being a statistic because the measurements are subjective, unlike, for example, shots on target Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green genie Posted February 15, 2023 Author Share Posted February 15, 2023 39 minutes ago, MickyD said: To me, if it was all that accurate, we’d all be making a fortune knowing the result of games before they were played. That’s the thing though; they aren’t accurate. Isn’t this how Brentford owner made his fortune? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ani Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 47 minutes ago, Casino said: Its good enough for garp, so its good enough for me Pretty sure it was brentford, ironically enough, who were massively underperforming to xg Gamblers made a killing sticking with them Id expect xg is a big one in the moneyball world Buy low and sell high needs you to be able to spot somebody with numbers that scream potential Garp who said teams never score from corners ? Wonder what he thought last night 😂😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Feelgood Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Marc505 said: It's a statistical model measuring the quality of a chance or a shot based on the outcomes of hundreds even thousands of other similar chances or shots. It's not guesswork or gambling or witchcraft, it's based on reams of statistical analysis. I don't claim to be an expert in it, or even claim to understand it thoroughly, or even care too much about stats as a whole. But those that do consider it to be extremely accurate and useful. It's a pile of owd cack. Pure guesswork from some button-pressing shitehawk's instinctive view of how close, or not, an attempt came to going in. Given that what matters is whether it did, or didn't, go in the guesswork in this made up pile of old doodie is pure Emperor's New Clothes bullsit disguised as a quasi science. Tomorrow, my views on Nicola Sturgeon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jol_BWFC Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Who the fuck is Garrp? 😉 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 9 hours ago, Traf said: We might as well just win them all and remove any doubt. 9 hours ago, green genie said: 101 points. No doubts ? Even allowing for you beating Weds top 2’s max is over 110 and current ppg is 99-100 As tongue in cheek as my suggestion was, do you really think a team would fail to go up with 101pts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green genie Posted February 16, 2023 Author Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Traf said: As tongue in cheek as my suggestion was, do you really think a team would fail to go up with 101pts? My reply was tongue in cheek as well but think the high 90s will be required for top spot. Think third place will be around 90. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter MickyD Posted February 16, 2023 Site Supporter Share Posted February 16, 2023 20 minutes ago, green genie said: My reply was tongue in cheek as well but think the high 90s will be required for top spot, Bolton to follow with mid-90s. Think Plymouth, in third place, will be around 90. That’s better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green genie Posted February 16, 2023 Author Share Posted February 16, 2023 57 minutes ago, MickyD said: That’s better. Let’s see where we are after Wembley (if we’re going for counting chickens) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter MickyD Posted February 16, 2023 Site Supporter Share Posted February 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, green genie said: Let’s see where we are after Wembley (if we’re going for counting chickens) I’m not sure if your own chicken counters are already proclaiming “We’re going to Wem-ber-ley, que sera, sera!” or “Wem-ber-ley, Wem-ber-ley, we’re the famous Plymouth Argyle and we’re going to Wem-ber-ley!” Ours certainly are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marc505 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 7 hours ago, Dr. Feelgood said: It's a pile of owd cack. Pure guesswork from some button-pressing shitehawk's instinctive view of how close, or not, an attempt came to going in. Given that what matters is whether it did, or didn't, go in the guesswork in this made up pile of old doodie is pure Emperor's New Clothes bullsit disguised as a quasi science. Tomorrow, my views on Nicola Sturgeon. Cheers for letting me know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 4 hours ago, green genie said: My reply was tongue in cheek as well but think the high 90s will be required for top spot. Think third place will be around 90. 3 hours ago, MickyD said: That’s better. I think Plymouth will go up with far more than 90. Wednesday have to be our target. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter desperado Posted February 16, 2023 Site Supporter Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Marc505 said: Cheers for letting me know. 😂 Sure you were delighted to receive that insight. Pretty sure I’ve heard Evatt quote expected goals more than once. Like you I’m no expert, but there’s too many professionals use it for it not to be considered useful when looking at data to analyse performance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Feelgood Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 13 minutes ago, desperado said: 😂 Sure you were delighted to receive that insight. Pretty sure I’ve heard Evatt quote expected goals more than once. Like you I’m no expert, but there’s too many professionals use it for it not to be considered useful when looking at data to analyse performance. Subjective, quasi-scientific bullshit. If the apparatchiks get hold of this they'll be awarding 0.73 of a goal next. If it goes in the net, offside/folks not withstanding, it's a goal. If it doesn't it's not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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