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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

Let’s wait 10 games!


tomski

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7 minutes ago, L/H White said:

that wigan one still pisses me off, they've only picked up 3 points since ffs 

Wigan will consider this to be a great start to the season just because they beat us at our place 4-0

Edited by MickyD
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18 minutes ago, Dr. Feelgood said:

The Wigan match affected us waaaay more than a mere 3 points. Led to a near collective nervous breakdown.

Agreed, one way or another the club from manager to players to fans has completely lost the plot when it comes to them. We've made them seem like giants physically and mentally last couple of home games.

When really, they're relatively shite, and we're relatively decent.

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1 hour ago, Marc505 said:

Agreed, one way or another the club from manager to players to fans has completely lost the plot when it comes to them. We've made them seem like giants physically and mentally last couple of home games.

When really, they're relatively shite, and we're relatively decent.

Proven by their 23 place in the league and a grand total of 5 points. 3 of which were gifted by us.

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On 04/10/2023 at 08:25, desperado said:

Just for you @Johnnyrotten 😊

Bit of help from Twitter with a cut and paste job below. 

Ploughing through the complexities of this not being an accurate day of judgement, it’s still fair to take a benchmark of our progress 10 games in.

3-0 V Lincoln City 🏠
0-3 V Cheltenham Town ✈️
3-1 V Fleetwood Town 🏠
0-4 V Wigan Athletic 🏠
1-1 V Burton Albion ✈️
2-1 V Derby County 🏠
2-1 V Reading ✈️
1-1 V Peterborough United 🏠
0-1 V Port Vale ✈️
3-2 V Stevenage Town 🏠

With our ambitions being automatic promotion, it’s been an ok start without being spectacular.

1 awful game/performance against Wigan and a massively frustrating one against Reading are the anomalies.

We dismissed a couple of poor sides early on and we’ve been able to beat a few sides around us which is a positive.

Our squad depth has been tested recently and so far has come through commendably.

Finding a consistent and quality strike partner for Dion has been a struggle. 

Importantly, despite some questionable behaviour from the manager and minority of fans, the squad has shown that they are very much together, it has character in spades (since Wigan!) and has shown glimpses of the quality needed to get us promoted.

If we continue our 2 points per game that will have us there or thereabouts. 

It won’t be plain-sailing and no doubts sterner tests to come, but a moderately pleasing start to the season. 

 

 

 

Been away a couple of days so late to the conversation...

I can't disagree with any of your points (I'll have to get over that disappointment!).

Yes, a moderately pleasing start to the season, no more or less.  Taking a relatively small number of games as a guage means each result has more impact, so if we'd beaten Reading & Burton (very possible) we'd be clear top and laughing.  If we'd drawn 2 of the games won (2 of the narrow wins v Derby, Vale, Stevenage) we'd be 2 points above 16th place and there'd be a meltdown on here.  Its narrow margins of victory/defeat, not to mention that a third of our home games have had 45 minutes with 1 team down to 10 men, throwing normal tactics and assessments out of the window (but yes giving an opportunity to show great character and different skills than 11 v 11). 

I'm looking forward to seeing more evidence of where we're at in the next few weeks, such a wierd start to the season to get to the end of October before the 5th away game, in another month we'll have a better idea when we've played 8 at home and 7 away and the injuries have (hopefully) cleared.

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5 hours ago, Wanderlust said:

10 games and 20 points - same as last season isn't it?

Since the Derby match it's been a struggle but there's plenty of reason to be optimistic that things will improve.

If you judged us after 10 games last season and got all excited you soon got brought back down to earth with FGR and Cheltenham away as games 11 and 12

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3 minutes ago, Zico said:

If you judged us after 10 games last season and got all excited you soon got brought back down to earth with FGR and Cheltenham away as games 11 and 12

Interesting that we are level to what we were. It’s a good return no doubt. But can’t stop feeling these fixtures have been a lot more generous this time round.

Losing to 2 below average sides has defo been frustrating.

Keep this up though and 92 points sees us up. 
 

Hopefully we’ve 6 more points after 12 games. 

 

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1 hour ago, tomski said:

Interesting that we are level to what we were. It’s a good return no doubt. But can’t stop feeling these fixtures have been a lot more generous this time round.

Losing to 2 below average sides has defo been frustrating.

Keep this up though and 92 points sees us up. 
 

Hopefully we’ve 6 more points after 12 games. 

 

Spot on there.

The next 10 games have 6 very tricky aways: Wycombe, Charlton, Shrewsbury, Cambridge, Oxford & Portsmouth! 

I’d snatch your hand off for being where we are now, after 20 games, in touching distance of top 2.

If we are top or 2nd after Portsmouth then we are genuine title contenders. 

Edited by desperado
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The other aspect of wanting to wait 10 games to see where we are was to have had a decent chance to assess the players/signings - but 10 games in and we still haven't seen anywhere enough of Maghoma or CMG to know what they can really bring.

Nor have we seen JDB on the pitch for long enough to see if there's a chance he has the stamina/fitness to play a full game as some are hoping for.

And to top that off we've had a fair few players who have blown hot and cold plus a couple of games where the team as a whole underperformed at the same time as each other - but also some bright cameos from Ashworth. Khumbeni and especially Matheson.

What we have learned is that there are a few surprise teams that we haven't played yet this year and as Desperado says the next ten games are potentially tricky - so overall, whilst the mists are clearing, there's still a fair bit we don't know when it comes to assessing our prospects for the season.

If the first ten games hadn't been so disrupted with red cards, suspensions and injuries we'd already know a lot more but it was what it was.

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The issue isn't really the start but the ambition/aim and that's automatic promotion this season.

When judged against that we're 3rd, so ultimately we're currently failing.

I think some people need to understand that to get automatic promotion you need to win almost every game, we haven't done that.

So as good as the start has been, we need to be doing even better in the next 10 games. Are we capable? I hope so but only time will tell.

If we're not there by the start of next year serious questions need to start being asked.

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18 minutes ago, Zog1 said:

The issue isn't really the start but the ambition/aim and that's automatic promotion this season.

When judged against that we're 3rd, so ultimately we're currently failing.

I think some people need to understand that to get automatic promotion you need to win almost every game, we haven't done that.

So as good as the start has been, we need to be doing even better in the next 10 games. Are we capable? I hope so but only time will tell.

If we're not there by the start of next year serious questions need to start being asked.

Our performances have been poor after the whirlwind three games. We haven’t a clue how to play against teams that press high against us with no plan B and even the poor teams give us problems. 
 

It’s a long way to go but we need to ship out a few and get in some quality during the next window to finish in the top two. In the meantime we need to continue to grind out enough points to be in touching distance in January 

Edited by RUREADY2ROLL
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28 minutes ago, Zog1 said:

The issue isn't really the start but the ambition/aim and that's automatic promotion this season.

When judged against that we're 3rd, so ultimately we're currently failing.

I think some people need to understand that to get automatic promotion you need to win almost every game, we haven't done that.

So as good as the start has been, we need to be doing even better in the next 10 games. Are we capable? I hope so but only time will tell.

If we're not there by the start of next year serious questions need to start being asked.

Win the game in hand and there is little in it.

Once we've played the likes of Oxford and Pompy we may know better.

I still remain a little unconvinced that our team is quite good enough, but at only 10 games, and not having played a number of teams around us, it's far too early to say we're failing.

What's more, it isn't always the case that the team that sets off strongly, finishes strongly.

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50 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Win the game in hand and there is little in it.

Once we've played the likes of Oxford and Pompy we may know better.

I still remain a little unconvinced that our team is quite good enough, but at only 10 games, and not having played a number of teams around us, it's far too early to say we're failing.

What's more, it isn't always the case that the team that sets off strongly, finishes strongly.

Not sure which teams are good enough? I dont think there are any really good teams like Ipswich and Plymouth like last season, you could even throw Sheff W in with them. This league this season is there for the taking, for anyone really.

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2 hours ago, Zog1 said:

 

I think some people need to understand that to get automatic promotion you need to win almost every game, we haven't done that.

If we're not there by the start of next year serious questions need to start being asked.

You need to win about 31 or 32 games, or the equivalent, you need to understand that

That wasnt 'nearly all' when I went to school, you need to understand that

You're in my top 2 of posters who are most likely to outstay their welcome first. Understand it or not, I care not one jot

:)

 

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1 hour ago, woolli said:

Not sure which teams are good enough? I dont think there are any really good teams like Ipswich and Plymouth like last season, you could even throw Sheff W in with them. This league this season is there for the taking, for anyone really.

Exactly- it's too early to tell. That also includes us.

Therfore it's not failure is it if we're not top 2 after 10 games. Especially as we're actually 3rd.

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9 hours ago, tomski said:

Keep this up though and 92 points sees us up. 

 

It wouldn't have been enough to even finish 3rd last season, so who knows.

Not saying I wouldn't snatch your hand off for 92 points and say its a job well done, but what others do is out of our hands. 

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Reading everyone's comments above I think the conclusion is 10 games is nowhere near enough, we simply don't know.  

I'll go with Bolty's 20 games as a reasonable benchmark.

We definitely need to be better than a year ago in the next 10 games, we only got 12 points then and we were behind in every game apart from two 0-0 draws.  So if nothing else let's see some improvement year on year.

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One of the issues with judging us just now is the imbalance between home and away fixtures. That grows with Carlisle and Northampton next up.

I don't feel like I can judge whether we're cutting it just yet. Let's get through some tough aways and see how we fare. Barnsley away would have been one next weekend.

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On 06/10/2023 at 13:40, Zog1 said:

 

I think some people need to understand that to get automatic promotion you need to win almost every game, we haven't done that.

 

Can you provide us a with a list of teams that have won almost every game in a season, and got promoted ?

In fact, just one would be great.

Meanwhile, here's a list of teams that have got promoted without winning almost every game:

Every team to get promoted, Ever.

What people (ie you) need to understand is that winning almost every game to get promoted is nigh on impossible, and leads to unrealistic expectations.

 

2 points per game would have over the last 19 seasons * (excluding the shorted covid season, in which 2 ppg would have won the division):

 

Won the division 7 tiimes

Got auto pronted 14 times

Got the playoffs 4 times

28 wins, 8 draws, 10 defeats gives you 92 points.

Thats not winning almost every game.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, ZiggyStardust said:

Can you provide us a with a list of teams that have won almost every game in a season, and got promoted ?

In fact, just one would be great.

Meanwhile, here's a list of teams that have got promoted without winning almost every game:

Every team to get promoted, Ever.

What people (ie you) need to understand is that winning almost every game to get promoted is nigh on impossible, and leads to unrealistic expectations.

 

2 points per game would have over the last 19 seasons * (excluding the shorted covid season, in which 2 ppg would have won the division):

 

Won the division 7 tiimes

Got auto pronted 14 times

Got the playoffs 4 times

28 wins, 8 draws, 10 defeats gives you 92 points.

Thats not winning almost every game.

 

 

 

 

Portsmouth haven't lost once yet and Oxford have lost twice, with zero draws.

That's what we're competing against, not your magic 2 points per game fairytail bs.

Now lets look at something called methodology, how many of those losses etc come after the team has basically won promotion?

If we look at our own club in 2016/17 when we won promotion in 2nd place, of the last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. That represents 20% of our entire losses for that season.

Looking at overall numbers at the end of the season is meaningless, because it means nothing to the people performing at the time.

Where we are now is what matters as it: impacts tactics, player motivation, January transfers, all sorts.

 

 

Edited by Zog1
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