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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

Let’s wait 10 games!


tomski

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2 hours ago, Zog1 said:

Portsmouth haven't lost once yet and Oxford have lost twice, with zero draws.

That's what we're competing against, not your magic 2 points per game fairytail bs.

Now lets look at something called methodology, how many of those losses etc come after the team has basically won promotion?

If we look at our own club in 2016/17 when we won promotion in 2nd place, of the last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. That represents 20% of our entire losses for that season.

Looking at overall numbers at the end of the season is meaningless, because it means nothing to the people performing at the time.

Where we are now is what matters as it: impacts tactics, player motivation, January transfers, all sorts.

 

 

Last season 

Plymouth W31 D8 L7 so roughly 33% of matches not won 

Ipswich W28 D14 L4 so 39% of games not won

Sheff Wed W28 D12 L6 so again 39% of games not won

Who are these teams winning virtually every game and getting promoted?

 

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3 hours ago, Zog1 said:

Portsmouth haven't lost once yet and Oxford have lost twice, with zero draws.

That's what we're competing against, not your magic 2 points per game fairytail bs.

Now lets look at something called methodology, how many of those losses etc come after the team has basically won promotion?

If we look at our own club in 2016/17 when we won promotion in 2nd place, of the last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. That represents 20% of our entire losses for that season.

Looking at overall numbers at the end of the season is meaningless, because it means nothing to the people performing at the time.

Where we are now is what matters as it: impacts tactics, player motivation, January transfers, all sorts.

 

 

You could have just listed the clubs that have won almost all their games and got promoted.

We are still waiting.

Please. Just name one. any of the 3 divisions, at any time. Just one.

Because if you cannot, then your point is factually & demonstrably wrong.

(although your point is proven wrong if any club has been promoted without winning almost all their games).

And whilst someone can be wrong in their opinions, thay cannot be wrong with facts.

Unless of course, you are saying Portsmouth (zero losses - won 66% of their games) and oxford (81% wins, but bizzarlly, at least to your methodology, below Portsmoth) have already been promoted.

The only table that matters is the one at the end of the season. And the only number that matters is the number of points, not the manner in which they were achieved.

 

As for garbage time, you may remember we didnt get promoted until the final game, so no idea why you are indicating that those 2 defeats were meaningless. But thanks for pointing out that we lost 21% of our games, and 'only' won 54% of our games - and got promoted !

 

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4 hours ago, DirtySanchez said:

Last season 

Plymouth W31 D8 L7 so roughly 33% of matches not won 

Ipswich W28 D14 L4 so 39% of games not won

Sheff Wed W28 D12 L6 so again 39% of games not won

Who are these teams winning virtually every game and getting promoted?

 

For comparison, our 100 goals 98 runaway season, we didn’t win 39% of our games.

1 Bolton 46 28 14 4 100 53 +47 98

 

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Looking at how many games clubs have lost and won promotion is well but when you consider we’re on 3 mid October with a relatively easy fixture list then it makes it increasingly hard, you then need to winning runs together

like I’ve said from the off if we can’t get promoted this season which let’s be honest looks a lot poorer than last then that seals it for me regarding IE

personally I think we will hang in and around the play offs until new year January transfer window will make or break him he’s had some poor ones recently recruitment simply needs to improve 

 

 

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11 hours ago, radcliffe white said:

Looking at how many games clubs have lost and won promotion is well but when you consider we’re on 3 mid October with a relatively easy fixture list then it makes it increasingly hard, you then need to winning runs together

like I’ve said from the off if we can’t get promoted this season which let’s be honest looks a lot poorer than last then that seals it for me regarding IE

personally I think we will hang in and around the play offs until new year January transfer window will make or break him he’s had some poor ones recently recruitment simply needs to improve 

 

 

His problem is the great January window we had a couple of years ago when we were down with bottom teams leaving January and then clawed everything back to get promotion. That perhaps made us think IE was a genius. Perhaps he just got lucky.

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1 hour ago, MickyD said:

His problem is the great January window we had a couple of years ago when we were down with bottom teams leaving January and then clawed everything back to get promotion. That perhaps made us think IE was a genius. Perhaps he just got lucky.

i think it was easier to improve us at that time

the pull of bolton and the lower standard required to improve us

and for all the chat that we went backward last jan, well the stats dont support that

 

this last window, we lost 2 of our best players and i think hes actually done well, within our budget, in replacing them

we look a bit threadbare atm, but hopefully that changes before we play again

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3 hours ago, MickyD said:

His problem is the great January window we had a couple of years ago when we were down with bottom teams leaving January and then clawed everything back to get promotion. That perhaps made us think IE was a genius. Perhaps he just got lucky.

😂 I think he may be the opposite to a genius. I’d be genuinely intrigued if anyone has thought that.

It’s not often I hear him speak and I’m not baffled. 

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With the way our fixtures are so skewed till Xmas is near, and the rash of injuries we've had, I settled a few weeks back for giving it 20 games before forming a firm view of where we're at and likely to end up. By then, not far off Jan window opening, a pretty clear picture, I imagine, of the rabbits that need pulling hats and whether the club's in position to / feels minded to back Evatt. 

Fly in the ointment then may be Charles still scoring and a Champ club short of goals (or even someone like Rangers or Celtic) coming in for him

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2 hours ago, ianofcleveleys said:

With the way our fixtures are so skewed till Xmas is near, and the rash of injuries we've had, I settled a few weeks back for giving it 20 games before forming a firm view of where we're at and likely to end up. By then, not far off Jan window opening, a pretty clear picture, I imagine, of the rabbits that need pulling hats and whether the club's in position to / feels minded to back Evatt. 

Fly in the ointment then may be Charles still scoring and a Champ club short of goals (or even someone like Rangers or Celtic) coming in for him

We would sell him for peanuts and buy another Dan with the present scouts

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6 hours ago, tomski said:

😂 I think he may be the opposite to a genius. I’d be genuinely intrigued if anyone has thought that.

It’s not often I hear him speak and I’m not baffled. 

Swap 'him' for 'anyone' and I see it matey ;)

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8 hours ago, Casino said:

bit shit we give it 10 games, then give it 11 games, then give it 12 games

 

its just like we need a crisis in our lives - i'm glad ive grown out of that

Agree in general. Nowt wrong with assessing at 10, 20 or 30 though? Weekly progress reports in business do my head in. Monthly, I get.

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On 10/10/2023 at 05:54, radcliffe white said:

Looking at how many games clubs have lost and won promotion is well but when you consider we’re on 3 mid October with a relatively easy fixture list then it makes it increasingly hard, you then need to winning runs together

like I’ve said from the off if we can’t get promoted this season which let’s be honest looks a lot poorer than last then that seals it for me regarding IE

personally I think we will hang in and around the play offs until new year January transfer window will make or break him he’s had some poor ones recently recruitment simply needs to improve 

 

 

I agree recruitment needs to improve white but where’s the money coming from to do that? FV don’t seem to have any and I’m still sure that in the summer they expected one or two departures like Johnson and possibly Dion to bring in cash to reinvest. That didn’t happen and I still believe that’s why Evatt had to withdraw from proposed signings and seek no others, so since we haven’t sold anybody where would finance come from? Equally despite having what we consider a small squad, it’s unbalanced as we have too many strikers and midfielders who are average at best and who we would have to move out before bringing others in. It’s going to be a tough one for Evatt and I’m not sure he’s got much latitude for January so I think he needs to buckle down on what he has now and pick a system that suits them not the one he has in his head that doesn’t.

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31 minutes ago, Whitesince63 said:

I agree recruitment needs to improve white but where’s the money coming from to do that? FV don’t seem to have any and I’m still sure that in the summer they expected one or two departures like Johnson and possibly Dion to bring in cash to reinvest. That didn’t happen and I still believe that’s why Evatt had to withdraw from proposed signings and seek no others, so since we haven’t sold anybody where would finance come from? Equally despite having what we consider a small squad, it’s unbalanced as we have too many strikers and midfielders who are average at best and who we would have to move out before bringing others in. It’s going to be a tough one for Evatt and I’m not sure he’s got much latitude for January so I think he needs to buckle down on what he has now and pick a system that suits them not the one he has in his head that doesn’t.

Does it have to involve fees?

let’s say currently Oxford & Portsmouth are the pace setters with a net spend of zero between them, perhaps IE & what’s his name have just got it wrong in the last few windows? I do think if Charles is on say 15 goals January an offer will come in too good to turn down 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

I doubt FV actually expected Dion to go, or anyone else for that matter. They certainly can't plan on that basis as it would send all the wrong messages to prospective players and fans.

if a good offer arrives then fair enough,  fans will understand that.

Except if we are in the Moneyball zone that's EXACTLY what they're about.

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2 hours ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

I doubt FV actually expected Dion to go, or anyone else for that matter. They certainly can't plan on that basis as it would send all the wrong messages to prospective players and fans.

if a good offer arrives then fair enough,  fans will understand that.

i'm sure Johnston was going

What was planned with the cash, I've no idea

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1 hour ago, Dr. Feelgood said:

Except if we are in the Moneyball zone that's EXACTLY what they're about.

Read my post again.

Of course part of the process is to bring on and sell players. That doesn't equate to expecting any given player being sold at any given time. 

It's exactly what happened with Thomason. They met our offer, but he didn't want to go, and got a new contract. 

If he'd decided to go, we'd have let him

That's not the approach of owners pushing the process one way or another, but one of allowing the manager to do what he feels is best.

If it was an offer for a player who the manager felt wasn't going to grow with us, or wasn't going to make it, then he no doubt would have made that clear to the player.

 

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