One for the pessimists

[wakey]

 

If your glass is half full and you're getting twichy because we're not ripping this division up yet, worry not.

We're 11 games into the season in 8th on 17 points. History tells us that's fine for us at this stage in a division 3 promotion season.

In the three previous seasons we've done it, only Jimmy Armfield's 1973 champions - who won the title by the equivalent of 6 points (in new money) were better placed at this stage. And then, only by (new money) 3 points.

PP's team in 2016/17 were also 8th, but with a point less than this year. We came 2nd on 86 points.

Bruce's 1992/93 side were 18th on 11 points, and again came 2nd (90 points).

We're absolutely fine, we'll piss it 😁

 

[Lt. Aldo Raine]

I'm not disagreeing but I think the points difference between where we are currently and where we want to be is more relevenat

Rather than the actual number of points we have

[wakey]

4 minutes ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

I'm not disagreeing but I think the points difference between where we are currently and where we want to be is more relevenat

Rather than the actual number of points we have

Fair point. We're 7 off the top 2 now. We were 5 off at this stage in 2016/17 and 11 off in 92/93.

Not checked 72/73, presume not many.

[Eddie]

I’m looking at where genuine challengers at the end of the season are. Of the top 6, I only have Cardiff in that bracket and we’re 6 points off them which clearly isn’t great, but they’re not exactly flying and could easily have been only 4 ahead after today.

Bradford might stick around but they’ll be bottom end of the play offs at best.

Huddersfield and Stockport 2 points ahead, Luton 1 behind, Plymouth 4 back and then some of the others who you might have mentioned at the start of the season have had shocking starts (Blackpool, Rotherham, Wycombe).

Nobody thinks we’ve started well, nobody thinks we’ve ‘clicked’ and yet other than Cardiff, none of the genuine challengers are more than 1 win away from us.

Said it on the Posh thread but Skybet have us second favourites for the league. We’re going up.

[wakey]

was being lazy, so I checked 72/73. We were 1 off in old money, 2 in new. 

[gonzo]

Not worth looking at the table till February.

We are going in the right direction.

[desperado]

Love this thread.

A thread for the pessimists, which is optimistic 😂.

At this stage we are still very well placed, playing ok, can play better, have a great goal scorer, not conceding too many goals, have fantastic midfield options, a decent keeper, the best wingers.

The whites are going up!

Are you listening pessimists? 😂

 

[Tombwfc]

1 hour ago, Eddie said:

I’m looking at where genuine challengers at the end of the season are. Of the top 6, I only have Cardiff in that bracket and we’re 6 points off them which clearly isn’t great, but they’re not exactly flying and could easily have been only 4 ahead after today.

Bradford might stick around but they’ll be bottom end of the play offs at best.

Huddersfield and Stockport 2 points ahead, Luton 1 behind, Plymouth 4 back and then some of the others who you might have mentioned at the start of the season have had shocking starts (Blackpool, Rotherham, Wycombe).

Nobody thinks we’ve started well, nobody thinks we’ve ‘clicked’ and yet other than Cardiff, none of the genuine challengers are more than 1 win away from us.

Said it on the Posh thread but Skybet have us second favourites for the league. We’re going up.

 

How much do any of us know about these teams to judge that Huddersfield are a bigger threat for promotion than Stevenage?

This might be my own ignorance, we haven't played them so I haven't seen either of those teams kick a ball. But Stevenage have won 8 out of 10 and beat Luton comfortably today by the looks of it. Seems daft to rule them out.

[desperado]

15 minutes ago, Tombwfc said:

 

How much do any of us know about these teams to judge that Huddersfield are a bigger threat for promotion than Stevenage?

This might be my own ignorance, we haven't played them so I haven't seen either of those teams kick a ball. But Stevenage have won 8 out of 10 and beat Luton comfortably today by the looks of it. Seems daft to rule them out.

Well if any of us are being honest we don’t know, unless we’ve been studying Stevenage this season, which I doubt most of us haven’t.

But the prediction isn’t ridiculous, it’s a it like predicting Palace and Bornemouth won’t be at the top in May.

Just look at the bookies predictions. 

Edited October 4, 2025 by desperado

[Eddie]

2 minutes ago, desperado said:

Well if any of us are being honest we don’t know, unless we’ve been studying Stevenage this season, which I doubt most of us haven’t.

But the prediction isn’t ridiculous, it’s a it like predicting Palace and Bornemouth won’t be at the top in May.

Just look at the bookies predictions. 

Exactly this. Might be unfair on Stevenage, but being realistic they aren’t going to keep this form up.

Huddersfield spent a fortune in the summer, and cash usually comes to the top by the end of the season in this league.

[tomski]

3 hours ago, wakey said:

 

If your glass is half full and you're getting twichy because we're not ripping this division up yet, worry not.

We're 11 games into the season in 8th on 17 points. History tells us that's fine for us at this stage in a division 3 promotion season.

In the three previous seasons we've done it, only Jimmy Armfield's 1973 champions - who won the title by the equivalent of 6 points (in new money) were better placed at this stage. And then, only by (new money) 3 points.

PP's team in 2016/17 were also 8th, but with a point less than this year. We came 2nd on 86 points.

Bruce's 1992/93 side were 18th on 11 points, and again came 2nd (90 points).

We're absolutely fine, we'll piss it 😁

 

We will finish 2nd 

[wakey]

I know nowt about Stevenage's squad, but I'd guess their budget is fuck all. If so, it usually means the squad's paper thin in terms of quality outside the first 11, which usually means they'll tail off as the season progresses, players are fatigued / injured / suspended / off-form.

So without knowing anything about their squad, it's reasonable to guess they'll not maintain their start.

Plus I'd fancy our chances of taking 6 points off them.

[wakey]

2 minutes ago, tomski said:

We will finish 2nd 

pessimist

[Wanderlust]

Ok - I’ll play. Wouldn’t want to disappoint 😀

Seems more open than recent seasons to me - there are plenty of teams in the mix and even Northampton in 13th could be level on points with us if they win their game in hand and Barnsley will be ahead if they win theirs.

Nine teams have won more games than us and another four have won the same number, but our consistent draw record and (ironically) our +5 GD has put us in the top half of the table, so let’s not get carried away just yet.

Fact is we get 3 points if we win against any team, so it seems way too early to be considering where and how we might pick up the points we will need as every week is an opportunity to bag the three as it is for every other team. 

Apart from Stevenage and arguably Bradford, there are no teams doing it consistently and plenty in the mix so at this stage, every game is a must win for me and every game is a tough game. Hopefully we’ll find the habit of winning every week to push us up towards the top.

 

[Tombwfc]

5 hours ago, desperado said:

Well if any of us are being honest we don’t know, unless we’ve been studying Stevenage this season, which I doubt most of us haven’t.

But the prediction isn’t ridiculous, it’s a it like predicting Palace and Bornemouth won’t be at the top in May.

Just look at the bookies predictions. 

 

Stevenage are 7/4 to get promoted. Bournemouth are 150/1 to win the Premier League (I'd argue there'd be another 0 on that but bookies will be forever spooked by what Leicester did).

Not saying anything is ridiculous, but we're far enough into the season now that the teams to focus on are the teams at the top, not the ones we thought would be at the start.

[desperado]

2 hours ago, Tombwfc said:

 

Stevenage are 7/4 to get promoted. Bournemouth are 150/1 to win the Premier League (I'd argue there'd be another 0 on that but bookies will be forever spooked by what Leicester did).

Not saying anything is ridiculous, but we're far enough into the season now that the teams to focus on are the teams at the top, not the ones we thought would be at the start.

Palace are 6/1 to get into the top 4.

Anyway, my point wasnt so much about the actual odds, more about positioning and expectation.

It’s an open L1 table. It’s 3rd tier football, so I get “smaller” clubs are going to be punching relatively better in our league than the prem, that’s why their odds will be shorter 

I said earlier in the week I doubt all  three (Bradford, Stevenage, Lincoln) will drop away.

But the bookies still have us, Cardiff and Luton ahead of them.

A moderate rather than successful points haul in the next clump of games wouldn’t be ideal, but neither should it be the signal for the minority doom mongers to have a meltdown. 

[Tombwfc]

3 hours ago, desperado said:

Palace are 6/1 to get into the top 4.

Anyway, my point wasnt so much about the actual odds, more about positioning and expectation.

It’s an open L1 table. It’s 3rd tier football, so I get “smaller” clubs are going to be punching relatively better in our league than the prem, that’s why their odds will be shorter 

I said earlier in the week I doubt all  three (Bradford, Stevenage, Lincoln) will drop away.

But the bookies still have us, Cardiff and Luton ahead of them.

A moderate rather than successful points haul in the next clump of games wouldn’t be ideal, but neither should it be the signal for the minority doom mongers to have a meltdown. 

 

Without going too far into the Premier League, if any prospective top four club doesn't consider Palace competition for one of those places they're not doing their jobs properly. 19 unbeaten, FA Cup winners, have won three and drawn two of their last five games against Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs and City.

We spent all last season expecting teams like us and Huddersfield to go on a run and it never happened. 

You seem fixated on the idea that the goal of the season is to have just enough points for you to argue with 'doom mongers' on the internet.

[Eddie]

24 minutes ago, Tombwfc said:

 

Without going too far into the Premier League, if any prospective top four club doesn't consider Palace competition for one of those places they're not doing their jobs properly. 19 unbeaten, FA Cup winners, have won three and drawn two of their last five games against Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs and City.

We spent all last season expecting teams like us and Huddersfield to go on a run and it never happened. 

You seem fixated on the idea that the goal of the season is to have just enough points for you to argue with 'doom mongers' on the internet.

Maybe we’re talking about different things, but I’m talking about Stevenage being challengers for automatic promotion, which should be our target. They won’t be.

Plenty of ‘smaller’ teams have had these runs in the last few seasons. Ultimately, Birmingham, Wrexham, Derby and Portsmouth have taken the top two spots - money moves to the top of this league. Stevenage are on a great run but will not challenge for the top two. Just like Palace are on a great run but will not get champs league, just like Forest last year they’ll also fall just short.

[desperado]

20 minutes ago, Tombwfc said:

You seem fixated on the idea that the goal of the season is to have just enough points for you to argue with 'doom mongers' on the internet.

🤣

Yes that’s right, that’s my goal, I don’t want us to be really successful, as I’d rather us be in a position where I can still call out doom mongers every week. 

[Lt. Aldo Raine]

5 hours ago, desperado said:

But the bookies still have us, Cardiff and Luton ahead of them.

I'd imagine that at this stage, this is still likely to be more of a reflection of how much money they've taken on the three clubs rather than their considered opinion

They might also think we're legitimate contenders, of course

[Rizlar]

Lots of twists and turns yet do think squad depth will play a big part as injuries and loss of form will be a major stumbling block for all teams. 

[Lostock Whites]

I'm okay with where we are in the table at the moment, 7 points off the top 2 is not great but it's also not much and can be virtually  turned around in just a couple of games.

My biggest concern at the moment is more our consistency. We've got to start backing up wins now and also more so away from home, we all know that we haven't won a single game away from home yet.

If we continue our form we won't change where we are in the table and the gaps will only get bigger to the top 2.

I don't care how we do it but we gotta get the job done at Burton away and at similar away games going forward.

We can beat anybody at home, but it's those away trips to the likes of Burton that will define our season I think.

[Tombwfc]

1 hour ago, Eddie said:

Maybe we’re talking about different things, but I’m talking about Stevenage being challengers for automatic promotion, which should be our target. They won’t be.

Plenty of ‘smaller’ teams have had these runs in the last few seasons. Ultimately, Birmingham, Wrexham, Derby and Portsmouth have taken the top two spots - money moves to the top of this league. Stevenage are on a great run but will not challenge for the top two. Just like Palace are on a great run but will not get champs league, just like Forest last year they’ll also fall just short.

 

Sure, but if we're saying Stevenage won't challenge then they're definitely a team we need to get ahead of. So how far ahead of us they are is surely very relevant.

Us and Huddersfield both spent lots of money last year and finished 10+ points off Wycombe, Charlton, Stockport and Leyton Orient. The season before Oxford (a 'surely they won't challenge' team) put us on our arse at Wembley. 

Until we show we're definitively better than these teams I wouldn't be writing anybody off.

[desperado]

4 minutes ago, Tombwfc said:

 

Sure, but if we're saying Stevenage won't challenge then they're definitely a team we need to get ahead of. So how far ahead of us they are is surely very relevant.

Us and Huddersfield both spent lots of money last year and finished 10+ points off Wycombe, Charlton, Stockport and Leyton Orient. The season before Oxford (a 'surely they won't challenge' team) put us on our arse at Wembley. 

Until we show we're definitively better than these teams I wouldn't be writing anybody off.

I agree with this.

And in agreeing probably means we are not too far away in opinion.

We’d be being very arrogant and blinkered if we thought teams smaller than us can’t compete for promotion.

I was happy Bradford’s comeback didn’t extend to a third goal the other night! 

Your examples above are good evidence of this in action.

But I think it’s a debatable point as to whether all 3 of them will be there. And whether the likes of us, Luton, Cardiff etc will surpass them by the end of the season.

[Farnywhite]

You can’t go up if your keeper can’t make saves