Electric Gretar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Go on then, here's mine for today : Total outlay = 15 pts. Backs 3:40 Ling - Collect Art - 2pts win (11/2) 4:15 Ling - Lastkingofscotland - 1pt win (9/1) , 3pts place (2/1) 6:35 Wolves - Acclamazing - 3 pts win (3/1) Lays 17:35 Wolves - Carter - Laying for 6pts liabiltity @ (3/1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newquaywhite Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Lingers 15.05 I recon Ahern has been hired to prevent the hatrick of wins for Lord Lansing. I wont be laying- its scares me but i wouldnt put anyone off doing By my reconiing that ought to bring Esteem Lord right into the reconing. I will be investing ?5 at 11/2. Gl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newquaywhite Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What do you recon? Ps. Recon Recon Recon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 I've got these two today: but they're not really firm bets. 2.30 Lingfield: Pineapple Pete. Currently 5/1 2nd fav, it's up against a 1/3 fav: but you never know. 6.05 Wolverhampton: Kentish. Probably more of an E/W bet: currently 10/1. Pineapple Pete was 3rd in the end: the red hot fav won it at 1/4! Kentish was a good E/W bet this morning: I took the early odds of 11/1. It had dropped to 10's by the time I posted it on here. It seems like every man and dog wanted to back it and come race time it was a ridiculously low 7/2. Anyway it came 3rd and I made a few quid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Gretar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Go on then, here's mine for today : Total outlay = 15 pts. Backs 3:40 Ling - Collect Art - 2pts win (11/2) U/P (-2pts) 4:15 Ling - Lastkingofscotland - 1pt win (9/1) , 3pts place (2/1) U/P (-4pts) 6:35 Wolves - Acclamazing - 3 pts win (3/1) WON (+9pts) Lays 17:35 Wolves - Carter - Laying for 6pts liabiltity @ (3/1) WON (-6pts) Carter completed a hatrick today, I couldn't see this winning today, how wrong I was, it sluiced up! Overall a loss of 3pts today, I've had worse days mind Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wayne cramp Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 got anythin for tomorrow ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Gretar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Backs 1:50 Ascot - Carole's Legacy 3pts win (6/4) 2.25 Ascot - Master Minded 8pts win (3/4) 2:55 Ascot - Lough Derg 1pt win (12/1) , 3pts place (3/1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Gretar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Backs 1:50 Ascot - Carole's Legacy 3pts win (6/4) 2nd (-3pts) 2.25 Ascot - Master Minded 8pts win (3/4) WON (+6pts) 2:55 Ascot - Lough Derg 1pt win (12/1) , 3pts place (3/1) 3rd (+8pts) +11pts today Running Profit and Loss total = +8pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 (edited) Not much that I fancy today: but I'd expect these two to win: 2.40 Kempton: Dvinsky (currently 100/30) 4.45 Kempton: Avonrose (curr 9/4) However...if I was looking for a bit of E/W value, I'd be inclined to consider: Market Rasen: 1.50: Willandrich (12/1) 2.55: Thai Vango (10/1) 3.25: Dormouse (10/1) 3.55: Galley Slave (10/1) Towcester: 2.30: Romney Marsh (9/1) 3.05: Ezdiyaad (16/1) 4.05: Sovereign Spirit (14/1) Kempton: 2.10: Norville (15/2) 2.40: Unlimited (12/1) 3.45: Benandonner (16/1) 4.15: Prince Charlemagne (11/1) It's more a day for trading than backing. Dvinsky & Avonrose were both placed, but failed to win and from the 11 that I thought might have an E/W chance: 1 didn't run and the others were all unplaced. I'm very pleased to have given the day a swerve and saved myself a few quid. Sometimes it's better to do that. Edited January 24, 2011 by Traf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Gretar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 (edited) Backs 4:05 Wolves - Captivator - 4pts win 11/8 Lays 5:05 Wolves - French Hollow - Laying for 2pts liability (4/7) Edited January 24, 2011 by Electric Gretar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Leccy, I agree with you on Captivator. Should win quite comfortably. Can I ask about French Hollow? Are you laying, because you think it's underpriced at 4/7 and therefore a value bet? Or do you just think it won't win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Gretar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Leccy, I agree with you on Captivator. Should win quite comfortably. Can I ask about French Hollow? Are you laying, because you think it's underpriced at 4/7 and therefore a value bet? Or do you just think it won't win? Should never be 4/7, I rate it as a slightly better than evens shot. 10/11 would be nearer the mark for me, therefore a value bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Should never be 4/7, I rate it as a slightly better than evens shot. 10/11 would be nearer the mark for me, therefore a value bet. In which case I agree with you once more. It should win, but there's no value at all at 4/7. I think it might drift a little later though, so maybe lay now and back later for guaranteed profits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 As with Sunday: there's nothing to excite me enough to back, but I'd expect these to win today: Kempton: 2.10: Replicator 3.50: Chilli Green 4.25: Tous Les Deux Wolverhampton 2.20: Rhal 3.30: John Potts 5.05: French Hollow 5.35: Querido Most of my betting involves laying to be honest: a higher-risk/lower return strategy, but it serves me well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Gretar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Backs 4:05 Wolves - Captivator - 4pts win 11/8 WON (+5.5pts) Lays 5:05 Wolves - French Hollow - Laying for 2pts liability (4/7) LOST (+3.5pts) Running Total P&L = +17pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Gretar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Tues 25th Jan Backs 1:40 Leic - Invictus - 5pts win (7/10) 3:10 Leic - Darby's Turn - 1.5pts win (4/1) 3:20 Southwell - Verinco - 1pt win (11/1) 2.5pts place (12/5) Lays 1:10 Leic - Tornado Bob - Laying for 4 pts liability @ Evs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 That 3.20 race looks to be a good contest. Plenty in there with chances. I looked at Verinco quite closely this morning and if you went off its turf form: it's be much shorter than the current 11/1. My main issue with the horse is that it's 0/7 on the A/W and I'm not sure whether it won't need another run to get going after a 4 month break. I've had a small punt on Colorus win & place (currently 16.0 & 4.8 on betfair). Best of Luck, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Gretar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That 3.20 race looks to be a good contest. Plenty in there with chances. I looked at Verinco quite closely this morning and if you went off its turf form: it's be much shorter than the current 11/1. My main issue with the horse is that it's 0/7 on the A/W and I'm not sure whether it won't need another run to get going after a 4 month break. I've had a small punt on Colorus win & place (currently 16.0 & 4.8 on betfair). Best of Luck, though. Yeah, it's a wide open race, I think Verinco is two or threee points overpriced, but realistically, I'm just hoping it's fit enough to run a place. Stuck a 1pt win on too because you know what happens when you don't? GL with yours too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I've got Verinco as 3rd in my ratings, so hopefully you'll get a place at worst. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Gretar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Tues 25th Jan Backs 1:40 Leic - Invictus - 5pts win (7/10) (-5pts) ffs, unseated rider on the flat when cruising and clear with 1 to jump 3:10 Leic - Darby's Turn - 1.5pts win (4/1) Last of 4 (-1.5pts) 3:20 Southwell - Verinco - 1pt win (11/1) 2.5pts place (12/5) U/P (-3.5pts) Lays 1:10 Leic - Tornado Bob - Laying for 4 pts liability @ Evs (Won) (-4pts) A Dog-shit-Day Afternoon today with a total loss of 14pts!! Total Running P&L back to +3pts after todays debacle!!! Traf, did you see Choc Thornton in the 1:40? Lost his iron soon after the second last, tried regaining his footing and the horse jinked at that precise moment and threw him out the side door! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 You couldn't have scripted it, could you? A similar thing happened to me at Taunton last season: I'd laid the 2nd fav at 6/1 and the fav was a good 30 lengths clear on the run-in, all jumps completed and the jockey fell off 50 yds from home for no apparent reason. Cost me ?300. We both read the 3.20 race wrongly, didn't we? My only proper bet was on Christmas Aria which won the 3.50 at 11/10. I took the 7/4 early price: I'm not after-timing, I thought I'd posted it up, but if people want verification, I emailed it to Widnes at lunchtime. I've got a reasonable methodology in place for picking the odd winner here and there that has served me well over the past 24 months: over 6,800 pts up in 2 yrs. mind you, there is over 3,800 bets to accumulate those profits. The ROI from 1st Jan 2009 to Dec 31st 2010 is 182%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Gretar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You couldn't have scripted it, could you? A similar thing happened to me at Taunton last season: I'd laid the 2nd fav at 6/1 and the fav was a good 30 lengths clear on the run-in, all jumps completed and the jockey fell off 50 yds from home for no apparent reason. Cost me ?300. We both read the 3.20 race wrongly, didn't we? My only proper bet was on Christmas Aria which won the 3.50 at 11/10. I took the 7/4 early price: I'm not after-timing, I thought I'd posted it up, but if people want verification, I emailed it to Widnes at lunchtime. I've got a reasonable methodology in place for picking the odd winner here and there that has served me well over the past 24 months: over 6,800 pts up in 2 yrs. mind you, there is over 3,800 bets to accumulate those profits. The ROI from 1st Jan 2009 to Dec 31st 2010 is 182%. Nope, you just can't legislate for freakish events, shit happens as they say. I always seem to be on the wrong end of mishaps mesen though! I think we were right in saying the 3.20 was an open race, just didn't perceive it to be so wide open though. I used to do ok on the back to lay/lay to backs, just don't have time to do it properly anymore, I'm here there and everywhere with work lately, only back here in UK til end Feb. I still follow the racing but with working in Arab countries it's difficult to place bets without being fined and also the taxman noticing cash appearing in my UK bank account Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's just interesting talking to someone on here about racing, rather than people just posting up a couple of horses they've backed. The way I operate is that I spend approx 5-6 hrs a day analysing most of the races for a given day: I don't do races where over 1/3 of the field have no relevant form, I don't do races of 4 runners or less, nor do get involved with NH Flat racing, unless I see one that has just been strategically dropped in for a run. I then do my own ratings for each race and I then lay what I perceive to be the worst horses in a race. I lay the worst rated in races of 5-7 runners, the bottom two for 8-14 runners and the bottom 3 in 15 runners or more. I don't lay above 15.0 either. So, today from a list of 36 potential lays, I had just 4 bets. All were beaten for a profit of 3.8pts: I lay to level stakes too. January has been tough and I'm only 10.55pts up for the month with 124/139 successful lays at a strike rate of 89.21%, but January's always tough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 PS That doesn't mean to say that my top-rated horses win all the time either! But there were 6 winners today, including Sea Cliff at 14/1, but I don't back them to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Gretar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's just interesting talking to someone on here about racing, rather than people just posting up a couple of horses they've backed. The way I operate is that I spend approx 5-6 hrs a day analysing most of the races for a given day: I don't do races where over 1/3 of the field have no relevant form, I don't do races of 4 runners or less, nor do get involved with NH Flat racing, unless I see one that has just been strategically dropped in for a run. I then do my own ratings for each race and I then lay what I perceive to be the worst horses in a race. I lay the worst rated in races of 5-7 runners, the bottom two for 8-14 runners and the bottom 3 in 15 runners or more. I don't lay above 15.0 either. So, today from a list of 36 potential lays, I had just 4 bets. All were beaten for a profit of 3.8pts: I lay to level stakes too. January has been tough and I'm only 10.55pts up for the month with 124/139 successful lays at a strike rate of 89.21%, but January's always tough. Interesting strategy, do you do this EVERY day? You make a living from this strategy alone? Do you actual bank your weekly profits as "wages" or take from as and when needed etc... Also, Do you just use Betfair for this? and don't you have to pay premium charges? Sorry, it sounds like the Spanish Inquisition. I'm not prying, just curious as to how you go about everything! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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