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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

No Horse Tips?


Traf
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When you say accounts restricted, you mean if you win too much they'll close your account? And whats too much? Been doin quite well on betfair, withdrawing often, should I open another account or are my ?40 - 200 per week not enough of a ripple? I mainly follow the markets, dont make a bet often until a minute before the off, also enjoy doing the back to lays, 1 of my favourite horses for it ran in the 3.20 today, bookiesindexboy :good:

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You're betting against fellow punters on betfair, so your account will never be restricted.

 

If you consistently win with the bookies, you'll struggle to get a decent sized (?50+) bet on.

 

Ask Garrp, he's well up on this.

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Big meeting abandoned at Leopardstown today: leaving us with just 2 run-of-the-mill affairs.

 

I'll probably go with these:

 

1.20 Fontwell: Freckle Face (10/1 E/W): Twice placed over C&D in October: needed the run last time out and should go well again, now fresh. 4th :angry:

2.20 Fontwell: Get It On (6/1): 2 recent wins at this level and will improve for the tough handicap race last time. Dropping back to easier opposition today.

2.30 Musselburgh: Titan De Sarti (Evens): Dual winner on the Flat in France: so has the turn of foot needed: 2nd in each of last 2 races and the main rival today is now a non-runner

3.25 Fontwell: If I Had Him (6/1): Won well at Taunton, but looked like he needed a longer run last time out. This is 2f further and should suit him better.

Edited by Traf
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Ayr has been abandoned due to a bit of water today: soft Scottish fuckers.

 

I'll have a punt on these:

 

Lingfield:

2.35: Not Til Monday (2/1) Loads of stamina, loves the soft ground and won well under similar circumstances 3 weeks ago. WON ?:D

3.40: Just Beware (5/1) C & D winner, but not always reliable, hence 5/1 price. 4th ?:(

3.40: Canshebemine (10/3) Plenty of stamina, which will be needed here and had won under soft/heavy conditions. 3rd :(

4.45: Top Smart (7/4) Seems to improve for every race and looks to be on a reasonable mark for a handicap debut. WON :D

 

Wolverhampton:

3.30: Orpenindeed (4/9) 4 recent wins, latest over C & D, and its main rival is now a non-runner. 2nd ?:o

5.05: Christmas Coming (4/1) Consistent, but temperamental at times. Needed its last run and should come on strong. Up against an odds on fav, but good value at 4's IMO poor today: 5th of 8. The glue factory beckons.

Edited by Traf
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6pts wagered today, and 5.75pts returned: so just a small loss.

 

The 2 winners were available at 9/4 and 5/2 after I'd already placed my bets: that would have made my 0.25pt loss into a profit of 0.75pts. Not massive, but it all helps.

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Tuesday

 

2.15: Southwell Princess Dayna (9/2): C&D winner LTO, holds Go Maggie Go on that form line.

2.45: Southwell Colorus (3/1): Consistent type, has won over C&D, wasn't disgraced in defeatat handicap level LTO and drops down in class today.

2.55: Sedgefield Lord Villez (5/1): Decent jumper: has won in France and had some good place finishes here. Will enjoy the ground too.

3.15: Southwell Eilean Mor (3/1): Has the best form of those with racing experience, consistent placer without winning, but should go well today, unless caught by a promising newcomer!

Edited by Traf
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Wed 9/2

 

Carlisle:

1.35: Si Bien (3/1) Consistently improving: regularly in the top 3 and comes in form having won LTO: looks better value than the fav. 3rd again

2.05: Along Came Rosie (2/1) Gets the trip and the going: has the best form of the field. a poor 5th

 

Lingfield:

1.25: Riot Police (13/2) Fancied this last time, but the meeting was abandoned. great breeding lines, but can be hit and miss re: temperament, hence the higher odds. 2nd, the winner interfered several times, but after 15 mins the stewards upheld the result.

 

Ludlow:

1.45: Kells Belle (8/11) Lightly raced (2nd & 1st in its only 2 races), lightly weighted (10-10) and the inform partnership of Henderson/McCoy. won at 6/5

2.50: If I Had Him (4/1) Won his penultimate outing, followed by a creditable 5th at handicap level. Stepping back down, looking for a win. 2nd

5.00: Zakatal (11/2) Loads of stamina, if not the greatest jumper! Should go very close with a clear round and 11/2 is great value for horse with this form: 332233 another 3rd!

 

Kempton:

6.40: Hinton Admiral (3/1) 3121 in last 4 races: good form. Holds I Confess on that form. Has a little to find to beat the fav, but at 3/1 is a good shout. WON

7.40: Blue Cossack (5/1) Has the stamina needed for a 1.5 mile race; 1st & 2nd in last races and looks to be a better betting proposition than a 6/4 fav that has never raced further than a mile. 2nd

 

Best of luck with whatever you choose to today! Mine surely has to turn soon.

Edited by Traf
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Thurs 10/2

 

2.30 Taunton: Clowance House (6/1): Has won on the flat over 1?m, so has a turn of pace if needed. A good 2nd place at Leicester last time on hevier ground and carrying 2lbs more than today, so should be better suited here. Seems to be improving and the stable is in good form.

 

3.50 Southwell: Honkers Bonkers (5/2): Handles this surface pretty well and is in good form: placed in each of his last 4 runs (all over 5f or 6f which is probably too sharp). The return to 7f plus the addition of the visor should help today.

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based on your current run Traf, I've just had a wee tickely on Honekrs Bonkers for a place @ 1.81 (only small stakes, and only 'cos I'm bored)

 

:good:

 

Wish I'd backed it for the win now, as it pissed it :roll: anyway still a small profit.

 

Cheers Traf

Edited by CWP
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'reet I'm far from a racing expert

 

But

 

Leopardstown tomorrow - fixtures are rearranged from last Sunday including the Hennessey Gold Cup

 

One of the other races @ 2:45pm The Deloitte Novice Hurdle, my business partner and his family/friends have a syndicate that own a horse called "Oscars Well" which is related to our company name

 

Anyway, he reckons it has a really, really good chance of winning and will be backing it heavily

 

It may be a bag o' shite, but I thought I would share what i've been told rather than "after event" if it does win

 

I'm gonna stick a few quid on, but again, I'm a novice....

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Oscars Well is a very good horse: he'll probably go off around 13/2 ish. My only concern for him is the distance. The race is 2 1/4 miles and I think he's better suited to 2 1/2m or even 2m5f.

 

But he's a grade 1 winner and will certainly have a decent chance.

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Friday:

 

1.55 Musselburgh: Kingdom Of Munster (9/4): Of those with any experience he has very much the best hurdling form.

 

2.25 Musselburgh: Alderley Rover (11/10): He deserves a change of luck, having finished runner-up in three of his five starts over fences so far. Looks like a proper stayer, but if he doesn't go well here, there's not much hope for his future.

 

4.00 Southwell: Cool Luke (4/1): Represents a yard whose runners go well here: his brother won at 7f as a 2yr old. 3rd LTO in 7f maiden at Wolverhampton, staying on from the rear.

 

4.45 Musselburgh: Rupert Lamb (2/1): Only found one too good at Wetherby and Ayr so far andgives the impression that he'd enjoy a longer terip than before. Every chance if staying 2?m.

 

4.55 Kempton: Cheltenian (10/11): Really needs to win this to justify the ?210,000 spent on him. Finished a very promising 2nd on debut at Punchestown and should be the one to beat here.

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Oscars Well is a very good horse: he'll probably go off around 13/2 ish. My only concern for him is the distance. The race is 2 1/4 miles and I think he's better suited to 2 1/2m or even 2m5f.

 

But he's a grade 1 winner and will certainly have a decent chance.

Thanks for that extra info Mr Traf

 

:good:

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Oscars Well is a very good horse: he'll probably go off around 13/2 ish. My only concern for him is the distance. The race is 2 1/4 miles and I think he's better suited to 2 1/2m or even 2m5f.

It'll be testing enough round there, though, and there's two or three who ought to ensure a decent gallop (Cottrelsbolley and Hidden Universe), so stamina is sure to come into play.

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I don't dispute that, mate. But the long term plan is for him to step up another 2 or 3 furlongs: I think they're aiming him at the Neptune Hurdle at Cheltenham next month over 2m5f. Although, interestingly he's also booked to run a 3m race at Cheltenham too.

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