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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

Cheltenham Festival 2014


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Went to Cheltenham for the betfred cup last year.... Took hours to get a beer so ruined my day

 

Stay down near the course is my advice and not expect to get drunk

Disagree.

 

Gold Cup Day is chaos accepted, but the other days no problems getting a beer, especially in the enclosed undercover area with a balcony.

 

The pubs in the town, considering the massive crowds are reasonably quiet or should I say that the extra staff can handle the numbers.

 

Ive been going now for a few years and never queued as much @ Cheltenham as I do in Manc on a Saturday night.

 

Wetherspoons and LLoyds Bars are very well run.

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Disagree.

 

Gold Cup Day is chaos accepted, but the other days no problems getting a beer, especially in the enclosed undercover area with a balcony.

 

The pubs in the town, considering the massive crowds are reasonably quiet or should I say that the extra staff can handle the numbers.

 

Ive been going now for a few years and never queued as much @ Cheltenham as I do in Manc on a Saturday night.

 

Wetherspoons and LLoyds Bars are very well run.

 

Gold Cup day is fine if you are at the far end of Tatts.No problem watching a race, then get back into the Guinness village for a pint and then back out in time for the next one.

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I'm through with going to Cheltenham for the Festival. They can shove their 4 days padded out with filler races, £8 burgers, £4.10 pints, Wild-rover-repeat-until-death, betfair scarves, stupidly overpriced Holiday Inn Express £250 rooms, and daft bus and taxi queues.

 

Far better sat in pub with ipad/laptop/pub grub/real ale and a betting pot of two grand that you've saved on all the palaver that comes with it.

 

But if anyone does fancy inviting me on a corporate do when the insurance chap inevitably drops out the night before please ignore all of the above.

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Supreme Novices Hurdle (Grade 1)

 

Course – Cheltenham

Distance – 2 miles 1/2 furlong

Date – Tue March 11th

Average field size last 10 years – 18.7

 

Positive Trends

 

Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners won last time out.

Previous hurdle form: 9 of last 10 winners have all come into the race having won at least 50% of all their previous hurdle races.

Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 12/1 or shorter.

Market: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top six of the betting.

Market rank LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were favourites LTO. Backing all 81 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £51.50 (ROI +63.6%).

Career wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least 3 times in their careers.

 

Negative Trends

 

Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 12 for a loss of £7.50; ROI -62.5%).

Price 14/1+: 2 wins from 126 for a loss of £64.00; ROI -50.8%).

Career wins: Horses that have won 2 or less times in their careers have provided 0 winners from 78.

Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse LTO have provided 0 winners from 62.

Career runs: Horses with 5 or fewer career runs have provided just 1 winner from 65.

Price LTO: Horses that were priced 5/2 or bigger LTO have provided just 1 winner from 96.

 

General Trends

 

Age: 4yos have won 0 races from 6 qualifiers (SR 0%); 5yos have won 4 races from 88 qualifiers (SR 4.5%); 6yos have won 5 from 70 qualifiers (SR 7.1%); 7yo+ have won 1 from 23 (SR 4.3%).

Trainers: Irish trainers have saddled 5 winners from 62 runners (SR 8.1%); British trainers have saddled 5 winners from 125 runners (SR 4.0%).

 

Key Bullet points - look for:

 

3 or more career wins

50%+ record in all hurdle races

Won LTO

Top 6 of betting

LTO favourites

6 or more career starts

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Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase

 

Course – Cheltenham

Distance – 2 miles

Date – Tue March 11th

Average field size last 10 years – 12.8

 

Positive Trends

 

Recent form: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO.

Market: All of the last 10 winners came from the top five betting.

Price: All of the last 10 winners have been priced 9/1 or shorter.

Race type LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners raced in a Novice Chase LTO.

Favourite LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were favourite LTO.

Price LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were odds on LTO.

Previous Cheltenham experience: 9 of the last 10 winners had run at Cheltenham before.

Course wins: 6 of the last 10 winners had previously won at the course. They have provided 60% of the winners from only 25% of the total runners.

Hurdle rating: 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 142+ when racing over hurdles.

Career wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least 4 times previously in their careers.

 

Negative Trends

 

Favourites: 2 wins from 10 for a loss of £6.74; ROI -67.4%).

Price 10/1+: 0 winners and 7 placed from 84 qualifiers.

Position LTO: Horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO have provided just 1 winner from 34.

Distance beaten LTO: Horses that were beaten by more than 5 lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 36.

Chase runs: Horses that had raced 5 or more times over fences have provided 0 winners from 43.

Running style: No horse has made all the running in the last 10 years – a stat that goes back to at least 1988.

 

General Trends

 

Age: 5yos have won 2 races from 20 qualifiers (SR 10%); 6yos have won 1 race from 29 qualifiers (SR 3.4%); 7yos have won 6 races from 50 qualifiers (SR 12.0%); 8yos+ have won 1 from 29 (SR 3.4%).

 

 

Key Bullet points - look for:

 

4 or more career wins

Raced at Cheltenham previously

Top 5 of betting

LTO favourites

Rated 142+ over hurdles

 

Other positives - ideally look for:

 

Won LTO

Won at Cheltenham

Edited by Traf
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William Hill Trophy Handicap Steeplechase

 

Course – Cheltenham

Distance – 3 miles 1/2 furlong

Date – Tue March 11th

Average field size last 10 years – 19.6

 

Positive Trends

 

Price: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 8/1. 3 of the last 10 winners were priced 28/1 or bigger.

Position LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners won LTO. They have provided 50% of the winners from only 19% of the total runners.

Market rank LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners were either favourite or second favourite LTO.

Class change: 7 of the last 10 winners raced in a lower class LTO.

Breeding: Irish breds have won 8 of the last 10 races.

Official rating: Allof the last 10 winners were rated between 129 and 143.

Trainers: 2 wins apiece for Alan King and Jonjo O'Neill.

 

Negative Trends

 

Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 13 for a loss of £7.00 (ROI -53.8%).

Weight: The top 5 in the weights have provided 0 winners from 53 qualifiers.

Weight carried: Horses carrying 11st or more have provided just 1 winner 73 for a loss of £67.00 (ROI -91.8%).

Breeding: French breds have won just 1 race from 44; British breds have won just 1 race from 42.

Course LTO: 0 wins from 34 for horses that raced at Cheltenham LTO.

 

General Trends

 

Age: 6yos have won 0 races from 14 qualifiers (SR 0%); 7yos have won 3 races from 32 qualifiers (SR 9.4%); 8yos have won 4 races from 41 qualifiers (SR 9.8%); 9yos have won 1 race from 46 qualifiers (SR 2.2%); 10yos have won 2 races from 32 qualifiers (SR 6.3%); 11yos+ have won 0 races from 31 (SR 0%).

 

 

Key Bullet points - look for:

 

Rated 129 to 143

Aged 7 to 10

Irish breds

 

Other positives - ideally look for:

 

Raced in lower class LTO

LTO favourite/second favourite

Edited by Traf
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Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

 

Course – Cheltenham

Distance – 2 miles 1/2 furlong

Date – Tue March 11th

Average field size last 10 years – 13.6

 

Positive Trends

 

Recent form: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO.

Price: 6 of the 10 winners have been priced 9/1 or bigger.

Price LTO: All of the 10 winners were priced 9/4 or shorter LTO.

Favourite LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were favourite LTO. Backing all 43 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £31.63 (ROI +73.6%).

Course runs: 8 of the last 10 winners had run at least twice at the course. They have provided 80% of the winners from 47% of the total runners.

Course form: 8 of the last 10 winners had previously won or been placed at the Cheltenham Festival.

Breeding: 7 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred.

Runs in last 90 days: 8 of the last 10 winners had run at least twice in the last 90 days. They have provided 80% of the winners from 53% of the total runners.

 

Negative Trends

 

Age: Horses aged 5 or younger provided 1 winner from 27; 9yo+ provided just 1 win from 24.

Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse LTO have provided 0 winners from 42 runners (just 1 placed).

Distance beaten LTO: Horses were beaten by more than 3 lengths LTO have provided just 1 winner from 63.

Career wins: Horses with 4 or fewer career wins have provided 0 winners from 41.

 

General Trends

 

Favourites: 4 wins from 11.

Trainers: Irish trainers have saddled 6 winners from 64 runners (SR 9.3%); British trainers have saddled 4 winners from 72 runners (SR 5.6%).

 

Key Bullet points - look for:

 

Won or placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival

Run at least twice before at Cheltenham

Priced 9/4 or shorter LTO

Aged 6 to 8

 

Other positives - ideally look for:

 

Won LTO

Irish breds

 

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Went Cheltenham on an all expense do last year, fantastic day. Gutted Im not there this year.

 

Some of your selections have been smashed in Gaarp. Some very good value there.

 

I dont even know where to start tomorrow. Taking on Hurricane Fly with Our Conor but thats about it at the moment.

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Gonna miss it all tomorow (Might get back for last 2 races) so thought I would have a few combination bets

 

E/W L15 on

 

11 Mar 2014 - 1:30 Cheltenham - Win

Vaniteux @ 10/1  EW @ 1/4 1-5

11 Mar 2014 - 2:05 Cheltenham - Win

Trifolium @ 4/1  EW @ 1/4 1-3

11 Mar 2014 - 2:40 Cheltenham - Win

Alfie Sherrin @ 8/1  EW @ 1/4 1-4

11 Mar 2014 - 4:00 Cheltenham - Win

Cailin Annamh @ 11/1  EW @ 1/4 1-3

 

Trixie on

 

11 Mar 2014 - 3:20 Cheltenham - Win

Our Conor @ 9/2

11 Mar 2014 - 4:00 Cheltenham - Win

Quevega @ 5/6

11 Mar 2014 - 4:40 Cheltenham - Win

Foxrock @ 7/2

 

Also have a couple of Week Long EW L15s

 

Our Conor @ Guaranteed Price (4/1)

11th Mar 2014 - Stan James Champion Hurdle

At Fishers Cross @ Guaranteed Price (13/2)

13th Mar 2014 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle NON RUNNER MONEY BACK

Last Instalment @ Guaranteed Price (7/1)

14th Mar 2014 - Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup NON RUNNER MONEY BACK

Arvika Ligeonniere @ Guaranteed Price (6/1) / Sizing Europe @ Guaranteed Price (12/1)

12th Mar 2014 - BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase NON RUNNER MONEY BACK

 

All the best!

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1.30 - Vautour

2.05 - Rock on Ruby

2.40 - Hadrians Approach

3.20 - The New One

4.00 - Quevega

 

My picks for tomorrow. I've tried to use Trafs stats to pick them but I'm notoriously bad at betting on horses.

 

Small stakes, bit of fun and a few nice breaks from work

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