Guest Posted July 12, 2024 Posted July 12, 2024 1 hour ago, Not in Crawley said: To be fair it makes it all the more daft Sunak called the election when he did - they'd have been able to go harder on 'the plan is working message' wouldn't have changed the outcome but might have reduced the losses. Sunak knew that the economic performance news was broadly irrelevant to the public until people felt better off and that wasn’t happening by January 25. But he also knew he’d have to increase prison early release, see nhs waiting lists rise further and small boat arrivals increase, plus he also knew Rwanda wouldn’t happen - hence why he released the entire plane load of people being held for the flight on bail. I think he went July because he knew what was coming up and knew the headlines were all disastrous for him. And fundamentally was worried not about the electorate but the right wing of his party trying to kick him out. Quote
Not in Crawley Posted July 12, 2024 Posted July 12, 2024 21 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said: Sunak knew that the economic performance news was broadly irrelevant to the public until people felt better off and that wasn’t happening by January 25. But he also knew he’d have to increase prison early release, see nhs waiting lists rise further and small boat arrivals increase, plus he also knew Rwanda wouldn’t happen - hence why he released the entire plane load of people being held for the flight on bail. I think he went July because he knew what was coming up and knew the headlines were all disastrous for him. And fundamentally was worried not about the electorate but the right wing of his party trying to kick him out. As I say, it wouldn;'t have made a difference to the result but it would have helped give time (the Conservatives were chronically underprepared) a summer boost (people always feel better after a break) Economy showing seeds of improvement, would Farage re-entered the fray with the American elections in the autumn? And maybe with a bit of luck England winning something. He'd have also made it through D-Day without it being a national scandal. Rwanda was never actually about sending anyone there and I don't believe Sunak actually agreed with anyway, another way to keep the in-fighting at bay. The good thing re prisions is that its always a unpopular nettle to grasps, but when you have a landslide and are at the begining of a term you can do things that are for the good of the country but electorally might be divisive. Whichever way I look at it going in July just seemed the poorer choice, but as you say the thought of a full summer of more in-fighting might have just seemed unpalatable. Quote
Guest Posted July 12, 2024 Posted July 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Not in Crawley said: As I say, it wouldn;'t have made a difference to the result but it would have helped give time (the Conservatives were chronically underprepared) a summer boost (people always feel better after a break) Economy showing seeds of improvement, would Farage re-entered the fray with the American elections in the autumn? And maybe with a bit of luck England winning something. He'd have also made it through D-Day without it being a national scandal. Rwanda was never actually about sending anyone there and I don't believe Sunak actually agreed with anyway, another way to keep the in-fighting at bay. The good thing re prisions is that its always a unpopular nettle to grasps, but when you have a landslide and are at the begining of a term you can do things that are for the good of the country but electorally might be divisive. Whichever way I look at it going in July just seemed the poorer choice, but as you say the thought of a full summer of more in-fighting might have just seemed unpalatable. I think bluntly he knew July was a bad plan electorally but feared he would be ousted in September by his own party after a summer of headlines that would have likely given impetus to the coup being instigated against him. Headlines of ‘Sunak releases Rwanda detainees no flights for months’ ’Record NHS waiting lists’ ’Tories to release more prisoners early as system collapses’. He wouldn’t have survived to the election. I think he knew that and wanted to have a shot at winning effectively on his own. I think he believed that by calling it with his small team on his own and just shouting lie after lie about Labour he could scrape a win like Major did in 92. That was his entire plan. I think he knew he’d be ousted before any election otherwise. Quote
wakey Posted July 12, 2024 Posted July 12, 2024 10 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said: I think bluntly he knew July was a bad plan electorally but feared he would be ousted in September by his own party after a summer of headlines that would have likely given impetus to the coup being instigated against him. Headlines of ‘Sunak releases Rwanda detainees no flights for months’ ’Record NHS waiting lists’ ’Tories to release more prisoners early as system collapses’. He wouldn’t have survived to the election. I think he knew that and wanted to have a shot at winning effectively on his own. I think he believed that by calling it with his small team on his own and just shouting lie after lie about Labour he could scrape a win like Major did in 92. That was his entire plan. I think he knew he’d be ousted before any election otherwise. Plus the theory that calling it early would wrong-foot Reform and reduce their losses to them. Backfired when Farage changed his mind and decided to stand. Quote
Not in Crawley Posted July 12, 2024 Posted July 12, 2024 (edited) 43 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said: I think bluntly he knew July was a bad plan electorally but feared he would be ousted in September by his own party after a summer of headlines that would have likely given impetus to the coup being instigated against him. Headlines of ‘Sunak releases Rwanda detainees no flights for months’ ’Record NHS waiting lists’ ’Tories to release more prisoners early as system collapses’. He wouldn’t have survived to the election. I think he knew that and wanted to have a shot at winning effectively on his own. I think he believed that by calling it with his small team on his own and just shouting lie after lie about Labour he could scrape a win like Major did in 92. That was his entire plan. I think he knew he’d be ousted before any election otherwise. I'm not sure he'd have been gone before an autumn election - given the economic upswing and also recess. We'll never know but I think a bit more has been made of the plotting than there actually was. Also, that's a bit off re the 92 election - Major and his team did a great job and it wasn't all simply lies. Also just to add whilst I was too young to vote in 92 I was backing the Conservatives as they had really help my Dad's school in terms of being grant maintained and out of LEA contro which led to improvements to George Toms. Edited July 12, 2024 by Not in Crawley Quote
Nowack Posted July 12, 2024 Posted July 12, 2024 He is a loving family man and wanted his kids to be settled before they start a new school and have a little holiday with them before hand. Caring conservatism. Quote
Sweep Posted July 12, 2024 Posted July 12, 2024 6 hours ago, bolty58 said: Building a national infrastructure takes time. Put a marker in your long term diary for 3-4 years from now. We'll discuss it then. That is, of course, if an election is not called in the meantime. He'll not be with Reform then, he'll have jumped ship to the Conservatives, once they lurch further to the right when Badenoch gets the gig. He'll then stab her in the back and go on to become leader. He knows that's his only chance to become PM Quote
Sweep Posted July 12, 2024 Posted July 12, 2024 2 hours ago, Nowack said: He is a loving family man and wanted his kids to be settled before they start a new school and have a little holiday with them before hand. Caring conservatism. He also wanted to make sure, that his mates could get bets on at decent odds, about when the election was actually going to be held. Quote
Traf Posted July 12, 2024 Posted July 12, 2024 Sunak didn't care about the timing, he'd recently found out that him and his wife were now richer than the Royal family, so the quicker he got out the better. Quote
Ani Posted July 12, 2024 Posted July 12, 2024 So to reignite the discussion about supporters of Reform being racist, it seems their supporters are not happy that a Muslim has been invited in. But Nigel Farage is happy to take the money. Some people might suggest that this one point would show that Tommy , his mates and some supporters of Reform are racist and that Nigel Farage is a shameless grifter who will take whatever money from whoever offers it. Clearly not all Reform supporters and NF might have given him the job for reasons beyond the massive donation Quote
Members bolty58 Posted July 12, 2024 Members Posted July 12, 2024 1 hour ago, Sweep said: He'll not be with Reform then, he'll have jumped ship to the Conservatives, once they lurch further to the right when Badenoch gets the gig. He'll then stab her in the back and go on to become leader. He knows that's his only chance to become PM You may well be correct sir. Certainly not outside of the realms of possibility. Quote
Members bolty58 Posted July 12, 2024 Members Posted July 12, 2024 25 minutes ago, Ani said: So to reignite the discussion about supporters of Reform being racist, it seems their supporters are not happy that a Muslim has been invited in. But Nigel Farage is happy to take the money. Some people might suggest that this one point would show that Tommy , his mates and some supporters of Reform are racist and that Nigel Farage is a shameless grifter who will take whatever money from whoever offers it. Clearly not all Reform supporters and NF might have given him the job for reasons beyond the massive donation These numb fuckers need weeding out and I expect that is what will happen. Zia Yusuf is a highly intelligent man. I suspect that a career in politics is the next step now he has his millions stashed. Quote
mickbrown Posted July 12, 2024 Posted July 12, 2024 We should ask the board’s resident fully paid up BNP member what they think of the whole Reform business. Quote
Site Supporter Cheese Posted July 12, 2024 Site Supporter Posted July 12, 2024 "They're all the same..." Quote
Moderators Zico Posted July 12, 2024 Moderators Posted July 12, 2024 1 hour ago, Cheese said: "They're all the same..." Everyone tries hard to look good when they start a new job Quote
jayjayoghani Posted July 12, 2024 Posted July 12, 2024 If Badenoch the next Tory leader, then it's definitely 2 parliaments for Labour. Pigshit thick. Quote
tomski Posted July 13, 2024 Posted July 13, 2024 8 hours ago, Zico said: Everyone tries hard to look good when they start a new job Except Liz and Kwesi Quote
frank_spencer Posted July 13, 2024 Posted July 13, 2024 4 hours ago, tomski said: Except Liz and Kwesi They were trying to look good to the Tufton Street massive Quote
Ani Posted July 13, 2024 Posted July 13, 2024 Does everyone agree if a male has served prison time for beating up an ex girlfriend they are unsuitable to be an MP ? Quote
Site Supporter Spider Posted July 13, 2024 Site Supporter Posted July 13, 2024 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Ani said: Does everyone agree if a male has served prison time for beating up an ex girlfriend they are unsuitable to be an MP ? Shouldn’t be allowed to be an MP Who’s this? Edited July 13, 2024 by Spider Quote
Members Lt. Aldo Raine Posted July 13, 2024 Members Posted July 13, 2024 8 minutes ago, Ani said: Does everyone agree if a male has served prison time for beating up an ex girlfriend they are unsuitable to be an MP ? Without a doubt Quote
Members Lt. Aldo Raine Posted July 13, 2024 Members Posted July 13, 2024 1 minute ago, Spider said: Nope. Who’s this? One of the new Reform MPs Quote
Moderators Casino Posted July 13, 2024 Moderators Posted July 13, 2024 Dunno, long time ago n all that But, i would say it speaks volumes about reform that they put him up for election Quote
Site Supporter Cheese Posted July 13, 2024 Site Supporter Posted July 13, 2024 21 minutes ago, Casino said: Dunno, long time ago n all that But, i would say it speaks volumes about reform that they put him up for election They didn't give a fuck who stood for them as long as they had a name to put on the ballot. Quote
Guest Posted July 13, 2024 Posted July 13, 2024 7 minutes ago, Cheese said: They didn't give a fuck who stood for them as long as they had a name to put on the ballot. Not true. They thoroughly vetted them to ensure there was no danger of decent human beings sneaking through. Quote
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