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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

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miamiwhite

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12 hours ago, jayjayoghani said:

If Badenoch the next Tory leader, then it's definitely 2 parliaments for Labour. Pigshit thick.  

They have to win back Reform voters and neither Hunt nor Tugendhat are going to do that

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1 hour ago, Casino said:

I find it interesting they claim to have known his history

He admits it happened but disputes the version of events he was sent prison for and the testimony of the bouncers who had to pull him off her. 

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4 hours ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

They have to win back Reform voters and neither Hunt nor Tugendhat are going to do that

One might argue they can’t win over a significant proportion of reform voters short of a merger or getting Farage as leader.

I think that the problem they have is that as they drift into reforms space the voters they might win back will almost certainly be equalled out by their loss of further voters across the blue wall areas. 
 

A lot of reform voters are Brexit voting former Labour voters who have zero interest in voting for the parliamentary Conservative Party. Irrespective of who lead it (unless it’s Farage).

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1 hour ago, bwfcfan5 said:

One might argue they can’t win over a significant proportion of reform voters short of a merger or getting Farage as leader.

I think that the problem they have is that as they drift into reforms space the voters they might win back will almost certainly be equalled out by their loss of further voters across the blue wall areas. 
 

A lot of reform voters are Brexit voting former Labour voters who have zero interest in voting for the parliamentary Conservative Party. Irrespective of who lead it (unless it’s Farage).

Quite probably, and it could now be too late

Although I don't think they have to drift too far into Reform's space, perhaps just elect a leader who looks like they might be capable of delivering the 2019 manifesto that won them so many seats

The uncomfortable truth for the centre right is that the electoral record of their political philosophy since 2010 has been poor, and centre right political parties across Europe are collapsing

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

Quite probably, and it could now be too late

Although I don't think they have to drift too far into Reform's space, perhaps just elect a leader who looks like they might be capable of delivering the 2019 manifesto that won them so many seats

The uncomfortable truth for the centre right is that the electoral record of their political philosophy since 2010 has been poor, and centre right political parties across Europe are collapsing

What was in the 2019 manifesto apart from "GET BREXIT DONE"?

 

Edit: Just had a look to remind myself. HAHAHAHAHAHA

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50524262

Edited by Cheese
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1 hour ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

Quite probably, and it could now be too late

Although I don't think they have to drift too far into Reform's space, perhaps just elect a leader who looks like they might be capable of delivering the 2019 manifesto that won them so many seats

The uncomfortable truth for the centre right is that the electoral record of their political philosophy since 2010 has been poor, and centre right political parties across Europe are collapsing

Their 2019 manifesto would need a centre or centre left Tory to deliver surely? Certainly not Braverman or Badenoch. Given it was bar Brexit a lot of centrist economic stuff like levelling up…

Beyond Brexit I’m not sure anyone cared about their policies in 2019 to be honest. 
 

If Labour don’t deliver it doesn’t matter what the Tories do they probably win. If Labour do ok though then sure their only way back is to compete for the centre ground again?

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7 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Their 2019 manifesto would need a centre or centre left Tory to deliver surely? Certainly not Braverman or Badenoch. Given it was bar Brexit a lot of centrist economic stuff like levelling up…

Beyond Brexit I’m not sure anyone cared about their policies in 2019 to be honest. 
 

If Labour don’t deliver it doesn’t matter what the Tories do they probably win. If Labour do ok though then sure their only way back is to compete for the centre ground again?

I think it's probably a formality that any party in power in this generation, in any major European country, will fail to deliver, at least in a meaningful sense, but that's a separate discussion

Perhaps I should've stated socially conservative rather than right-wing

I'm unconvinced a leader from the more liberal wing of the party would have adequate answers to the immigration and energy issues that will increasingly dominate the political conversation in the years to come

 

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1 hour ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

I think it's probably a formality that any party in power in this generation, in any major European country, will fail to deliver, at least in a meaningful sense, but that's a separate discussion

Perhaps I should've stated socially conservative rather than right-wing

I'm unconvinced a leader from the more liberal wing of the party would have adequate answers to the immigration and energy issues that will increasingly dominate the political conversation in the years to come

 

We’ve seen 5 years maybe 8 if you count May (which you should) have socially conservative leaders. I think there is the likelihood as in 97 of a major miscalculation in the Tories.

If everything is dreadful in 5 years time and Labour have fallen apart then they win by default again.

But let’s say Labour achieve some modest growth and are by the end of the parliament investing some back into public services and ending the child benefit cap. It means the Tories would need to win back a significant portion of the centre and centre left vote in all reality to have a chance. 

I think it could be a huge miscalculation to chase after what would only be a proportion of the leave vote and bleed more to the LDs, Labour and the greens the other way in that eventuality. There aren’t enough votes a reform lite Tory party can win. A full blown reform party with Farage as leader might win them. Not a Tory lite version which would alienate the centre further. 
 

The same argument was had in 97 and let’s face it the Tories let Labour squat over the centre ground and were it not for Iraq it’s very possible the Tories still wouldn’t have got back in by now. The only difference now is the chance of Labour collapsing and failing is far higher because the world’s a mess. 

Edited by bwfcfan5
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8 hours ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

Quite probably, and it could now be too late

Although I don't think they have to drift too far into Reform's space, perhaps just elect a leader who looks like they might be capable of delivering the 2019 manifesto that won them so many seats

The uncomfortable truth for the centre right is that the electoral record of their political philosophy since 2010 has been poor, and centre right political parties across Europe are collapsing

Correct. They need to sense the winds of change blowing all over Europe before choosing another leader. If it's to be another wet, they may as well forget 2029 now. Farage will decimate them unless of course he jumps ship from the destroyer to the aircraft carrier.

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3 hours ago, royal white said:

The only people to blame here are the parents. How on earth can you blame a party? 
 

 

A better labour policy would be to lock up one of the parents who don’t look after their kids for abuse. 

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2 hours ago, Mounts Kipper said:

A better labour policy would be to lock up one of the parents who don’t look after their kids for abuse. 

Need to build some more prisons first.

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36 minutes ago, Cheese said:

Starting to become clearer why Sunak called the election when he did.

 

Yeah I said this the other week. Became pretty obvious what had happened when Chalk gave that account.

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10 hours ago, royal white said:

The only people to blame here are the parents. How on earth can you blame a party? 
 

 

Tbf there is prevention and cure, encouraging kids to clean their teeth is a start  getting more people access to an NHS dentist is part. 
 

Pity that parents are not doing it but no harm in helping the kids. Remember when I was a kid the dentist explaining how important cleaning teeth was. 

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14 minutes ago, deeane Koontz said:

I think something needs to be done sharpish about social media and the dangerous/graphic stuff kids are exposed to on a daily basis. Seems to have got a lot worse recently.

Parents job innit?

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It's not a nanny state if the govt are telling kids to look after their chompers. It's a long term plan to ease pressure on dentists having to rip teeth our of teenagers heads.

It's advice for fucks sake. They're not injecting flouride into their hearts.

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