Coronavirus

[ZiggyStardust]

4 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Depends on reporting - no idea how Belgium are reporting theirs, but earlier UK data suggested we're seeing an up to 80% lag in reporting - in that most single days reporting are 80% lower than reality. Hence we may be at the same level. Plus we're not looking at non-hospital deaths. 

It is why the comparison of daily deaths directly is discouraged because everyone is reporting in a different way. 

Please xplain why you say that the official figures are 80% lower than reality.

Ive seen tweets saying that, attaching to ONS figures that show no such thing, so I'm obviously misunderstanding, so your explanation would be most helpful.

[bwfcfan5]

1 minute ago, ZiggyStardust said:

Please xplain why you say that the official figures are 80% lower than reality.

Ive seen tweets saying that, attaching to ONS figures that show no such thing, so I'm obviously misunderstanding, so your explanation would be most helpful.

I was going off this twitter feed that had been posted earlier in the thread....

 

https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1247458186300456960?s=20

[MalcolmW]

3 minutes ago, ZiggyStardust said:

Please xplain why you say that the official figures are 80% lower than reality.

Ive seen tweets saying that, attaching to ONS figures that show no such thing, so I'm obviously misunderstanding, so your explanation would be most helpful.

 

1 minute ago, bwfcfan5 said:

I was going off this twitter feed that had been posted earlier in the thread....

 

https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1247458186300456960?s=20

It pays not to go off twitter feeds.

The ONS report also shows that first quarter deaths from all causes are about 2% down on the average of the last 5 years. So while CV is a big problem and could still wreak havoc, the mild winter has helped to reduce total deaths.

[Mounts Kipper]

6 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

I was going off this twitter feed that had been posted earlier in the thread....

 

https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1247458186300456960?s=20

This was posted further down the tweet and does put some kind of explanation, the 80% figures are misleading and I do wonder what motive folk have for posting seriously inaccurate info. 

 

“Chris I think this is because you’re not thinking in exponential maths. You should measure the error in days, not percentage. NHS England’s press statement makes it clear there is c. 3 day lag between a death and inclusion in the daily DHSC figures. Try offsetting your graph”

Edited April 7, 2020 by Mounts Kipper

[bwfcfan5]

Just now, MalcolmW said:

 

It pays not to go off twitter feeds.

The ONS report also shows that first quarter deaths from all causes are about 2% down on the average of the last 5 years. So while CV is a big problem and could still wreak havoc, the mild winter has helped to reduce total deaths.

Is that relevant to the twitter feed's analysis regarding the daily reporting of COVID-19 deaths?

[bwfcfan5]

5 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

This was posted further down the tweet and does put some kind of explanation, the 80% figures are misleading and I do wonder what motive folk have for posting seriously inaccurate info. 

 

Chris I think this is because you’re not thinking in exponential maths. You should measure the error in days, not percentage. NHS England’s press statement makes it clear there is c. 3 day lag between a death and inclusion in the daily DHSC figures. Try offsetting your graph

Yes fair point - we're X numbers of days behind is a good way to look at it. It isn't about causing alarm I guess its about understanding what it is we're actually seeing in the numbers. So the peak will happen before we have it confirmed in data etc....

But the figures aren't misleading. It's clear what he's saying is true and I think its question of presentation. However you view today's figure it is horrendous. 

Edited April 7, 2020 by bwfcfan5

[Mounts Kipper]

3 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Yes fair point - we're X numbers of days behind is a good way to look at it. It isn't about causing alarm I guess its about understanding what it is we're actually seeing in the numbers. So the peak will happen before we have it confirmed in data etc....

But the figures aren't misleading. It's clear what he's saying is true and I think its question of presentation. 

Its not true or fair representation of the real figures,  It’s nothing else other than a sensationalist tweet, he should be ashamed of himself, needlessly stirring up angst and fear.  He wins cunt of the day. 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Mounts Kipper

[bwfcfan5]

Just now, Mounts Kipper said:

It’s nothing else other than a sensationalist tweet, he should be ashamed of himself, needlessly stirring up angst and fear.  He wins cunt of the day. 

The death toll is 850 something today it seems. I think the angst and fear is warranted to be honest. We're seeing the same pattern as Italy. Its horrific. 

[Mounts Kipper]

4 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

The death toll is 850 something today it seems. I think the angst and fear is warranted to be honest. We're seeing the same pattern as Italy. Its horrific. 

It is horrific but we’re a long way off Italy in number of deaths and as Malcolm points out our average death rate across the board has hardly changed from the normal death rate. Time for some sense of balance instead of posting shite like the tweet you posted earlier. 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Mounts Kipper

[ZiggyStardust]

2 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

The death toll is 850 something today it seems. I think the angst and fear is warranted to be honest. We're seeing the same pattern as Italy. Its horrific. 

Do you agree with the premise that deaths are 80% under-reported ?

And if so, please provide actual numbers to back this up (one day, any day, where the actuals turned out to be 4x the reported ones).

 

Otherwise its a sensationalist headline, designed as clickbait and to sell papers.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

2 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

It’s nothing else other than a sensationalist tweet, he should be ashamed of himself, needlessly stirring up angst and fear.  He wins cunt of the day. 

Fuck em pal.

Some one "with a little knowledge posting irresponsibly" shocker.

Sticking to official info. Can't be arsed reading all these comments etc any more as it screws with the head.

Sweep's post was all that is needed to remind us of the importance of following official guidance.

Far more interesting and mentally positive inspecting my seedlings and seeing new life emerge. Trying for a fucking humongous pumpkin or two later in the year- if successful, might try to do a "guess the weight" type raffle to raise some cash for NHS etc.

[bwfcfan5]

2 minutes ago, ZiggyStardust said:

Do you agree with the premise that deaths are 80% under-reported ?

And if so, please provide actual numbers to back this up (one day, any day, where the actuals turned out to be 4x the reported ones).

 

Otherwise its a sensationalist headline, designed as clickbait and to sell papers.

The data shows that each day there is an under-reporting. Its not up for dispute. The reason for it is a lag - so the true deaths per day lag behind. Nobody is suggesting its a sinister thing - my point was merely that you need to understand whether that applies in say Belgium or anywhere else, and what the lag is before you make comparisons. The data catches itself up, but if ypu're looking for example at a country with a 5 day lag, vs our 3 day vs say 2 day you'll see different daily reporting. 

Nobody is saying the totals are wrong just that we have a lag in the data - that was all.  

[bwfcfan5]

16 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

It is horrific but we’re a long way off Italy in number of deaths and as Malcolm points out our average death rate across the board has hardly changed from the normal death rate. Time for some sense of balance instead of posting shite like the tweet you posted earlier. 

The death rate argument is not relevant. If we armed a few thousand people tomorrow and let them loose and they gunned down a few hundred thousand folk between them its true that many of those people might have died at some point in the next year anyway. But a) we've no way of knowing who and b) it is still just as horrendous. 

If you're lucky and have a mild winter and a less virulent flu strain that year you may even maintain a stablish death rate....it doesn't mean a) its a good thing or b) we should play it down. 

 

[ZiggyStardust]

8 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

The data shows that each day there is an under-reporting. Its not up for dispute. The reason for it is a lag - so the true deaths per day lag behind. Nobody is suggesting its a sinister thing - my point was merely that you need to understand whether that applies in say Belgium or anywhere else, and what the lag is before you make comparisons. The data catches itself up, but if ypu're looking for example at a country with a 5 day lag, vs our 3 day vs say 2 day you'll see different daily reporting. 

Nobody is saying the totals are wrong just that we have a lag in the data - that was all.  

I agee.

 

And its something we are all aware of, and have been for some time.

But earlier you repeated, in order to make a point, that we are underreporting by 80%. Which is factually incorrect, and is only used to sensationilise. And does you no favours when you repeat the lie, and then try to deflect from that.

Its easy to say you made a mistake. we all do it.

 

You should try it some time.

 

 

[Roger_Dubuis]

President of Benidorm's British Business Association said " British tourism I don't see it happening until September, because the Uk is still so far behind Spain, and until you have it contained people won't be allowed to come and have their week in Benidorm.Otherwise the locals will all be scared that they're going to get it and then it will be uncontrolled again"

[peelyfeet]

14 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

It is horrific but we’re a long way off Italy in number of deaths and as Malcolm points out our average death rate across the board has hardly changed from the normal death rate. Time for some sense of balance instead of posting shite like the tweet you posted earlier. 

Average UK death rates is a massive red herring and shouldn't be used to compare.

for a start it's 10 days out of date at best,  and there's massive fluctuations year on year anyway

it doesn't take into account the effect of lockdown, (for example reducing RTA, reducing normal flu transmission, reducing covid, increasing inactivity in the popuation)

it's on a national level.

Local comparisons of overall deaths in areas where the peak has happened are what is important to measure at this stage , national stats can come later

If we measured against the whole world death rate, covid would be insignificant, it needs to be compared accurately 

 

 

[Casino]

7 minutes ago, Roger_Dubuis said:

President of Benidorm's British Business Association 

Fcuking hell

I bet he's a brexiteer

What a cock

 

 

Anyway, my woman on the ground in Corfu hasn't even considered her business might be affected this summer

[jmjhb]

8 minutes ago, Roger_Dubuis said:

President of Benidorm's British Business Association said " British tourism I don't see it happening until September, because the Uk is still so far behind Spain, and until you have it contained people won't be allowed to come and have their week in Benidorm.Otherwise the locals will all be scared that they're going to get it and then it will be uncontrolled again"

Little Englander idiots will always find a way

[bwfcfan5]

7 minutes ago, ZiggyStardust said:

I agee.

 

And its something we are all aware of, and have been for some time.

But earlier you repeated, in order to make a point, that we are underreporting by 80%. Which is factually incorrect, and is only used to sensationilise. And does you no favours when you repeat the lie, and then try to deflect from that.

Its easy to say you made a mistake. we all do it.

 

You should try it some time.

 

 

Quote

Depends on reporting - no idea how Belgium are reporting theirs, but earlier UK data suggested we're seeing an up to 80% lag in reporting - in that most single days reporting are 80% lower than reality. Hence we may be at the same level. Plus we're not looking at non-hospital deaths. 

It is why the comparison of daily deaths directly is discouraged because everyone is reporting in a different way. 

I think the point I was making about lag - was in the post you're talking about. Perhaps clumsily expressed. But it was not trying to suggest we're doing anything malevolent and I think its clearly not saying that. 

[Spider]

Can we not just go with the figure that is put out every day and stop fucking mithering each other to death?

When it’s back into double figures maybe we can start thinking about the pub.

until then, I think we’re staying put.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Spider

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

Average UK death rates is a massive red herring and shouldn't be used to compare.

for a start it's 10 days out of date at best,  and there's massive fluctuations year on year anyway

it doesn't take into account the effect of lockdown, (for example reducing RTA, reducing normal flu transmission, reducing covid, increasing inactivity in the popuation)

it's on a national level.

Local comparisons of overall deaths in areas where the peak has happened are what is important to measure at this stage , national stats can come later

If we measured against the whole world death rate, covid would be insignificant, it needs to be compared accurately 

 

 

RTAs will be down massively

[bwfcfan5]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52197594

Quote

UK data from intensive care hospital wards shows the average patient who is critically ill is aged 60. Most are white men and many have other health conditions that could put them at increased risk, such as heart problems and obesity.

Seems women have a much better chance with this than men. 

[only1swanny]

Agree that "80% down" headline is click bait..

 

That implies that we are only reporting 20% (1/5th) of deaths..

 

So most people will read that as the 5k deaths is actually 25k. 

Very far from the truth. 

[jeep]

I bet suicides are up....

[Tonge moor green jacket]

5 minutes ago, jeep said:

I bet suicides are up....

Might have to wait a bit longer for a train...