Coronavirus

[Escobarp]

7 minutes ago, Farrelli said:

Could be but seems a very high percentage of African Americans have died of covid-19. I think one city quoted on the news had a black population of about 20% but blacks accounted for around 70% deaths. 

Could it be living conditions potentially as in larger families possibly living in close quarters thus facilitating spread? Bit of a stab in the dark but I’m struggling to understand the reasoning 

[Farrelli]

Just now, Escobarp said:

Could it be living conditions potentially as in larger families possibly living in close quarters thus facilitating spread? Bit of a stab in the dark but I’m struggling to understand the reasoning 

That Is possible but would that explain such high mortality rates? 

[Ani]

Over weight 50 plus males are not good risks. 
 

This site will be closing down. 

[leigh white]

1 hour ago, Mr Grey said:

Wiganers are a different breed, from Bolton myself but lived in the Astley, Tyldesley and Leigh area for the last 13 years, Leigh can be a bit rough but people seem decent, about 10 to 15 years behined most other towns, if they see a black person, they start muttering racist comments and mentioning the words "send the buggers back", they proper hate Wigan yet most of them are armchair supporters of Liverpool or United, a few also jumping on the Citeh bandwagon.

Been for a walk everday since lockdown and the majority of people seem to be adhering to the rules, unfortunately like every town and city in the UK there's some fucking cretins, hoods up walking around with their mates drinking a can of Lynx Lager and just looking like they don't give a fuck. If the few carry on like this, lockdown is gonna be longer.

Lived in Mosley Common, Tyldesley, Astley & Leigh, tell that to that Keyser Soze geezer what post's on here.😃

[Escobarp]

4 minutes ago, Farrelli said:

That Is possible but would that explain such high mortality rates? 

Maybe cultural ? They don’t feel they need the hospital? Maybe don’t feel as though they would get the same treatment as whites? Perception of racial prejudice? 
 

but something isn’t right about it if the numbers are true 

[Wanderlust]

Question:

If somebody quotes somebody else and you want to comment on the reply with the context i.e. both bits how do you do that?

Sorry to be thick but I'm old and have spent most of my life abusing my brain and internal organs.

[royal white]

1 hour ago, stevieb said:

I've heard it's the same over here too. Any of our medical folk back that up? 

Apparently 1/3 of those that have it are BAME...corona is now racist

 

 

[only1swanny]

24 minutes ago, royal white said:

Apparently 1/3 of those that have it are BAME...corona is now racist

 

 

Covered in detail in the news about 2 weeks ago..

 

BME families are more at risk due to cultural differences.. For example Asian families generally live in HMO's with 2/3 families in one home, they cook centrally with shared serving plates etc. So the virus is free to move around. That combined with communal prayers and visits to the mosque (which obv has now ceased)

I'm less certain on 2nd or 3rd generation Black families but a lot of recent migrants again cook and live more communally than your traditional white British family. 

The article I read was written by a Muslim reporter.

[bolty58]

 

Please read this 4- minute article by an epidemiologist carefully.

Jonahan Smith is a lecturer in Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases and Global Health at Yale University School of Public Health. His research focuses on infectious disease transmission dynamics. He is an affiliate of the Yale Global Health Leadership Institute and founding director of Visual Epidemiology, a non-profit organization seeking to combine academic discourse with personalized narratives.

 

"As an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point I feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not being articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media. I have also relied on my much smarter infectious disease epidemiologist friends for peer review of this post; any edits are from that peer review.

Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.

First, we are in the beginning of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these distancing measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse.

This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t.

Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it typically increases your contacts with family members / very close friends. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. 

You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming geometric speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that whole chain.

In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how on a population level, ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise.

You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.

Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to choices outside the rules. 

My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to just‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty."

 

by Jonahan Smith. a lecturer in Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases and Global Health at Yale University School of Public Health. His research focuses on infectious disease transmission dynamics. He is an affiliate of the Yale Global Health Leadership Institute and founding director of Visual Epidemiology, a non-profit organization seeking to combine academic discourse with personal narratives.

[gonzo]

8 hours ago, Casino said:

Im guessing social issues are probably bigger factors

 

 

[gonzo]

6 hours ago, only1swanny said:

Covered in detail in the news about 2 weeks ago..

 

BME families are more at risk due to cultural differences.. For example Asian families generally live in HMO's with 2/3 families in one home, they cook centrally with shared serving plates etc. So the virus is free to move around. That combined with communal prayers and visits to the mosque (which obv has now ceased)

I'm less certain on 2nd or 3rd generation Black families but a lot of recent migrants again cook and live more communally than your traditional white British family. 

The article I read was written by a Muslim reporter.

It really doesn’t need a report to tell you that Covid is gonna spread like jam in a households that’s stuffed full of Rayguns.

Especailly when they’re still in each others houses in their prayer rooms and half the mosques are still operational through the back door. 

[Spider]

16 minutes ago, gonzo said:

It really doesn’t need a report to tell you that Covid is gonna spread like jam in a households that’s stuffed full of Rayguns.

Especailly when they’re still in each others houses in their prayer rooms and half the mosques are still operational through the back door. 

If we can keep the pubs shut, they can keep the mosques shut.

Zero sympathy if they decimate their communities just so they can go to prayers.

[RoadRunnerFan]

BAME communities are also over represented in Medical, Nursing and other healthcare roles. Ten Transport for London workers have also died and BAME workers are also over represented in these occupations. 

If you are going out to applaud tonight, take a moment to reflect on this.

It doesn't make the points on living conditions, cultural and religious differences any less true, but it's worth bearing occupations in mind too. 

Edited April 9, 2020 by RoadRunnerFan

[Rudy]

15 minutes ago, Spider said:

If we can keep the pubs shut, they can keep the mosques shut.

Zero sympathy if they decimate their communities just so they can go to prayers.

Yeah but praying will save them from COVID19. Keep up.

[ErnestTurnip]

Muslims have had a system in place for this for years, you can buy a radio scanner that will pick up your local mosque and do your praying at home. I have a mate who lives in the Blackburn area and the mosque he goes to had shut down even before the guidelines kicked in.

That's not to say things might not be open but that's the same for everything and everyone else whether it's a mosque,church,pub.house party and regardless of who is going or taking part.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, gonzo said:

 

 

Perhaps she should have gone into politics, rather than presenting her politics as news?

Edited April 9, 2020 by boltondiver

[Marc505]

 

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Marc505 said:

 

Might as well get back to work if people aren’t going to play properly 

[Marc505]

4 minutes ago, Mr Grey said:

Getting like the warhouse raves in the late 80's and early 90's. 

I haven't witnessed a street party for about 15 years why the big upsurge?!

[Rudy]

3 minutes ago, Marc505 said:

I haven't witnessed a street party for about 15 years why the big upsurge?!

There might be a reason you’ve not been invited mate 😁

[Zico]

1 hour ago, Spider said:

If we can keep the pubs shut, they can keep the mosques shut.

Zero sympathy if they decimate their communities just so they can go to prayers.

I drove past Didsbury Mosque the other day and it was shut, so well done Tommy Robinson

[Marc505]

7 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

There might be a reason you’ve not been invited mate 😁

Oh shit hadn't thought of that 😆

[Marc505]

6 minutes ago, Mr Grey said:

Probably means 2 or 3 sets of Neighbour's having a bbq accompanied by some trance music, all the kids roaming the streets of the estate on their bikes and scooters.

Trance music and a barbecue is exactly how I'm going to spend Saturday night, not a communal event though.

[Spider]

I’ve spent every night for the last 3 weeks in a trance.

Doubt anyone would come even if I invited them.

 

[kent_white]

1 hour ago, ErnestTurnip said:

Muslims have had a system in place for this for years, you can buy a radio scanner that will pick up your local mosque and do your praying at home. I have a mate who lives in the Blackburn area and the mosque he goes to had shut down even before the guidelines kicked in.

That's not to say things might not be open but that's the same for everything and everyone else whether it's a mosque,church,pub.house party and regardless of who is going or taking part.

I've heard much the same. I thought it was going to be a disaster when they said they were shutting the mosques but as far as I haven't heard anything about them opening other than Gonzo's post.

I asked one of the Muslim lads who I work with and he said he's using an app and gets awoken by his imam every morning telling him to get up and pray. A bit like a modern Gladys Pugh only with more facial hair.