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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

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Just now, gonzo said:

My prediction... kids back to school in 2 weeks.

pubs open in 3.

footy season back in mid May. 

Fleetwood away end of May bank holiday.  

That's some wishful thinking mate - Italy have said they may lift some restrictions at the end of April, we will be at least 3 weeks behind them I think, and I would assume we will watch how Italy copes before we jump in and follow, so possibly longer -  I'd estimate June at the earliest for some restrictions being lifted - if we don't slow down in the next few days its more likely that we will have further restrictions.   

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Just now, peelyfeet said:

That's some wishful thinking mate - Italy have said they may lift some restrictions at the end of April, we will be at least 3 weeks behind them I think, and I would assume we will watch how Italy copes before we jump in and follow, so possibly longer -  I'd estimate June at the earliest for some restrictions being lifted - if we don't slow down in the next few days its more likely that we will have further restrictions.   

Kids back to school in Denmark end of next week and Germany apparently looking at relaxing some restrictions. 
 

another 3 weeks for us and I think we will start to see some loosening all being well 

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3 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Kids back to school in Denmark end of next week and Germany apparently looking at relaxing some restrictions. 
 

another 3 weeks for us and I think we will start to see some loosening all being well 

Denmark locked down really early, and has plateaued for 10 days at around 15 deaths per day, they're weeks further along than we are at getting the infection rate under control, as are Germany, we aren't going to relax anything until we can see the infection rate getting really low, it would be madness. 

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16 minutes ago, gonzo said:

My prediction... kids back to school in 2 weeks.

pubs open in 3.

footy season back in mid May. 

Fleetwood away end of May bank holiday.  

Predictions?
 

Everyone back to work on May 31st, so government don't have to implement the self-employed help in June.

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4 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

Denmark locked down really early, and has plateaued for 10 days at around 15 deaths per day, they're weeks further along than we are at getting the infection rate under control, as are Germany, we aren't going to relax anything until we can see the infection rate getting really low, it would be madness. 

Never said we were mate. I’m just simply highlighting what’s going on elsewhere 

 

like I said I think we’re guaranteed another 3 weeks 

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10 hours ago, bolty58 said:

 

Please read this 4- minute article by an epidemiologist carefully.

Jonahan Smith is a lecturer in Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases and Global Health at Yale University School of Public Health. His research focuses on infectious disease transmission dynamics. He is an affiliate of the Yale Global Health Leadership Institute and founding director of Visual Epidemiology, a non-profit organization seeking to combine academic discourse with personalized narratives.

 

"As an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point I feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not being articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media. I have also relied on my much smarter infectious disease epidemiologist friends for peer review of this post; any edits are from that peer review.

Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.

First, we are in the beginning of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these distancing measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse.

This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t.

Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it typically increases your contacts with family members / very close friends. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. 

You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming geometric speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that whole chain.

In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how on a population level, ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise.

You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.

Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to choices outside the rules. 

My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to just‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty."

 

by Jonahan Smith. a lecturer in Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases and Global Health at Yale University School of Public Health. His research focuses on infectious disease transmission dynamics. He is an affiliate of the Yale Global Health Leadership Institute and founding director of Visual Epidemiology, a non-profit organization seeking to combine academic discourse with personal narratives.

Spot on this article- read it a few weeks ago. Thanks for sharing. We just agreed on something 👍

Hold the fucking line! Such surreal times when looking out for your loved ones & community involves avoiding them at all costs.

Apologies for this taking up a large chunk of the thread- didn't know how to quote without doing so.

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1 hour ago, fatolive said:

My uncle lost his battle to this in Royal Bolton this morning, so he will be one of today’s numbers. 

last rites over the phone held by a nurse with no family there.

made an exception yesterday evening and allowed my Aunt in for a short while to say goodbye ,  she was so covered up and him in such a way will never know if he knew, but my aunt said he did and took comfort from it. 

None of his kids have seen him since last Thursday and can’t even be with their mum now. 

Not writing this for sympathy, very few know me and I know most on here are decent enough without needing to say anything. 

writing this to firstly echo how brilliant the staff Bolton are, cannot express how fantastic and hard working they are while remaining compassionate and patient. Special breed of person . Thank you to all posters on here who work there, for all I know you were the one that sat and held his hand in the absence of his family 

secondly, from reading not many do, but, if you think the virus doesn’t kill but rather underlying conditions do, be in no doubt this virus killed him, he wasn’t going to die if he got flu or a cold. 

thirdly, if you can’t imagine what we are going through, if you go out and ignore the rules you’ll be risking putting someone else through this and maybe even your own family will experience it or yourself and believe me, it’s fucking grim so stay home. 

Its also a better place for me to just write this than Facebook etc so thanks for obliging me in that. 

 

Condolences Fatolive.

Well spoken, pal.

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3 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Never said we were mate. I’m just simply highlighting what’s going on elsewhere 

 

like I said I think we’re guaranteed another 3 weeks 

Wuhan was 10 weeks, I think parts of UK will be more like that, maybe we will have regional restrictions lifted earlier, in places like North East and South West - just hope it fucks off as soon as possible - I downloaded a wilderness hunting game on the kids xbox last night,  made me feel like I was in the lake district for a few hours.

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7 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

Wuhan was 10 weeks, I think parts of UK will be more like that, maybe we will have regional restrictions lifted earlier, in places like North East and South West - just hope it fucks off as soon as possible - I downloaded a wilderness hunting game on the kids xbox last night,  made me feel like I was in the lake district for a few hours.

you can shoot elephants in ambleside?

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1 hour ago, fatolive said:

My uncle lost his battle to this in Royal Bolton this morning, so he will be one of today’s numbers. 

last rites over the phone held by a nurse with no family there.

made an exception yesterday evening and allowed my Aunt in for a short while to say goodbye ,  she was so covered up and him in such a way will never know if he knew, but my aunt said he did and took comfort from it. 

None of his kids have seen him since last Thursday and can’t even be with their mum now. 

Not writing this for sympathy, very few know me and I know most on here are decent enough without needing to say anything. 

writing this to firstly echo how brilliant the staff Bolton are, cannot express how fantastic and hard working they are while remaining compassionate and patient. Special breed of person . Thank you to all posters on here who work there, for all I know you were the one that sat and held his hand in the absence of his family 

secondly, from reading not many do, but, if you think the virus doesn’t kill but rather underlying conditions do, be in no doubt this virus killed him, he wasn’t going to die if he got flu or a cold. 

thirdly, if you can’t imagine what we are going through, if you go out and ignore the rules you’ll be risking putting someone else through this and maybe even your own family will experience it or yourself and believe me, it’s fucking grim so stay home. 

Its also a better place for me to just write this than Facebook etc so thanks for obliging me in that. 

 

Sorry for your loss pal. Such hard times for your family.  I hope when it's all over that you get to come together for a proper send off. 

 

Edited by London Wanderer
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This is by no means an effort to downplay the loss that the poster will be feeling today and no words from me could make them feel any better, but they know they have my utmost sympathies.

But the sobering/frightening fact here is that by the end of this, every single one of us will have personally known a victim.

And that is fucking awful, my friends.

I hope those who have passed sleep well and that the ones they've left behind can eventually find some solace. Today would have been my father-in-law's 90th birthday : he died from leukaemia 9 yrs ago and my wife still hasn't got over it.

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17 minutes ago, only1swanny said:

Schools will be closed a while.

At least till June 17th due to the amount of people who are shielding either officially or not.

We closed before told to purely due to staffing issues, 

What does unofficially shielding mean?

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2 minutes ago, Traf said:

This is by no means an effort to downplay the loss that the poster will be feeling today and no words from me could make them feel any better, but they know they have my utmost sympathies.

But the sobering/frightening fact here is that by the end of this, every single one of us will have personally known a victim.

And that is fucking awful, my friends.

I hope those who have passed sleep well and that the ones they've left behind can eventually find some solace. Today would have been my father-in-law's 90th birthday : he died from leukaemia 9 yrs ago and my wife still hasn't got over it.

well said Traf

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