Coronavirus

[Tombwfc]

On 09/10/2020 at 06:19, birch-chorley said:

I’d like to know what % of the 285 people on ventilators are from the vulnerable groups? 

If it’s a lot then surely it could support the idea of ‘locking up the oldies’ (asking the vulnerable groups to shield once more) 

Back in March we asked these groups to take additional measures above and beyond the rest of us by shielding (to protect the NHS). Not sure why that’s not on the table now? 

Before shutting down the leisure industry and sending millions of workers home to rely on state support, it feels (to me anyway) like we could have at least asked those in the vulnerable groups to instead avoid these places first. If pubs and restaurants are that bad for transmission of Covid that they need closing then why on Earth are we not telling the vulnerable to avoid them as a starting point? 

My Nan and Grandad are both in these groups, they spent August eating in the Morrison’s Cafe as it was 50% off and cheaper than buying food. From Monday it will be too dangerous for anyone to go in there, yet today we can all go in, no matter what are chances of requiring hospital treatment if we get Covid 

Madness 

 

I think advising people who were shielding before (circa 2.2m people IIRC) to do so again should absolutely be on the table as a measure.

It's the 'and then everyone else can crack on as normal' stage that I question.

In a month we've gone from 60 odd people a day being admitted to hospital with COVID, to 600 a day. And that's with a variety of measures in place that people think already are too extreme. 

2.2m people isn't going to make a difference on that scale. And as soon as you widen that (anyone over 70, people with obesity/asthma), it becomes such a large group of people that it'd be completely unenforceable.

[jayjayoghani]

51 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

Australia closing its borders until end 2021.

They enjoy being locked up.

Except the nations that have coped well with Covid

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/australia-s-international-travel-ban-likely-to-remain-until-late-2021

[birch-chorley]

3 minutes ago, Tombwfc said:

 

I think advising people who were shielding before (circa 2.2m people IIRC) to do so again should absolutely be on the table as a measure.

It's the 'and then everyone else can crack on as normal' stage that I question.

In a month we've gone from 60 odd people a day being admitted to hospital with COVID, to 600 a day. And that's with a variety of measures in place that people think already are too extreme. 

2.2m people isn't going to make a difference on that scale. And as soon as you widen that (anyone over 70, people with obesity/asthma), it becomes such a large group of people that it'd be completely unenforceable.

You could tier it....

2.2m fully shielding 

Over 60’s, obese, asthmatic’s not to go into pubs, restaurants etc 

Restrictions are based on risk, yet the biggest determinator of risk is being ignored 

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, Boby Brno said:

MCG and SCG could be possible. 👍

https://www.thecricketer.com/Topics/ashes/first_ashes_test_moved_the_gabba_scg_2021_22.html
 

Perhaps not the SCG!

[Zico]

26 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

I don’t believe everything was open, far from it 

Rules on large gatherings pretty much knackers all sport, music, festivals and theatre. Social distancing also means  many businesses were only allowed to open on reduced capacity 

You weren’t allowed to travel any other country with over 20 cases per 1,000. That smashed the travel industry 

In terms of GDP data for August, the ONS has it -9.2% lower than February. The worst 2008 got was -7% and that was pretty much the worst performance since the Wall Street Crash in the 1920’s.

The ONS said: "The level of output has not fully recovered from the record falls seen across March and April 2020, and is still 9.2% below the levels seen in February 2020, before the full impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic."

And now we are taking the economy backwards yet again! 

Yeah i must add that in August we were seeing gradual relaxations based on numbers going down

I would anticipate that would have continued and footy grounds for example, with measures in place, would reopen

Basically, proceed with caution and gradual relaxation as we see that it works

the economy would recover, all be it slowly

dead people don't recover, and we're yet to see the impact of long covid

Edited October 10, 2020 by ZicoKelly

[Zico]

36 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

Plan B should be now, in my view.

But they won’t 

The WHO are advising countries not to lockdown 

this was plan B IMO

plan A was "total" lockdown

plan B was gradual relaxation

I can't see what plan C would be other than to fuck it off and let it rip

[Boby Brno]

6 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

https://www.thecricketer.com/Topics/ashes/first_ashes_test_moved_the_gabba_scg_2021_22.html
 

Perhaps not the SCG!

Could live with that. New ground for me.

[birch-chorley]

5 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

Yeah i must add that in August we were seeing gradual relaxations based on numbers going down

I would anticipate that would have continued and footy grounds for example, with measures in place, would reopen

Basically, proceed with caution and gradual relaxation as we see that it works

the economy would recover, all be it slowly

dead people don't recover, and we're yet to see the impact of long covid

Yet to see the impact of the recession on spending and public health through the 2020’s 

If NHS spending went up 20% from 2010 to 2020 yet those ‘cuts’ meant 130k more died than would have otherwise then how many are forecast to die as a result of this recession / impact on government spending? Say 200k - 300k over 10 years maybe 

The unintended consequence of what we are doing now to save hundreds of thousands of lives will likely mean hundreds of thousands of life’s are lost for years to come 

 

[Marc505]

51 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

We should have a vaccine next year at some point

I would be more than happy to proceed with the measures that were in place in August

The focus would have to be on policing the rules and ensure as strict adherence as possible

Get the military involved if we have to, employ the jobless as covid enforcement officers, whatever is required to have a presence out there ensuring people and businesses are towing the line

The only way we get on top or beat this till the vaccine is to implement and follow the fundamental rules of sanitation and distancing

It requires a concerted effort from the all the public

And that's why we're fucked

Vaccine will be here soon, but the problem is the logistics of it. There's so many people to vaccinate that it could become available next week and still take until Easter to cover everyone, so until then for the most part not much changes.

If they want to cancel all military leave the first place they should send them to is guard duty for the places storing it all. 

[Zico]

7 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Yet to see the impact of the recession on spending and public health through the 2020’s 

If NHS spending went up 20% from 2010 to 2020 yet those ‘cuts’ meant 130k more died than would have otherwise then how many are forecast to die as a result of this recession / impact on government spending? Say 200k - 300k over 10 years maybe 

The unintended consequence of what we are doing now to save hundreds of thousands of lives will likely mean hundreds of thousands of life’s are lost for years to come 

 

aye, and so might the alternative 

we don't know what awaits us in that respect

so again, I'd like  see the world proceed with caution and look to change the mindset of the public in terms of hygiene and sanitsation

but it won't

see what happens

anything beyond my family is out of my control anyway

just did some sums

comparing my average income for the last 7 months, compared to the 12 months previously, I'm currently 25% down per month

it's not pleasent, it means no pension contributions or additional mortgage payments, and I've got daughter's education to consider next

I'd like nothing more than to get back on track, though I suspect a fuck it and crack on approach wouldn't have me back to 100% anytime soon

[birch-chorley]

6 minutes ago, Marc505 said:

Vaccine will be here soon, but the problem is the logistics of it. There's so many people to vaccinate that it could become available next week and still take until Easter to cover everyone, so until then for the most part not much changes.

If they want to cancel all military leave the first place they should send them to is guard duty for the places storing it all. 

When the vaccine does come who gets it first? 

Common sense would say you give it to the ones most likely to end up in hospital / dying from Covid 

But by the same token common sense would say you restrict the vulnerable groups from going to pubs and restaurants before you ban everyone 

[peelyfeet]

1 minute ago, birch-chorley said:

When the vaccine does come who gets it first? 

Common sense would say you give it to the ones most likely to end up in hospital / dying from Covid 

But by the same token common sense would say you restrict the vulnerable groups from going to pubs and restaurants before you ban everyone 

The no.1 transmission venue by far is the home. People catch covid in their house, off others whove caught it by mixing outside the house. 

[birch-chorley]

2 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

aye, and so might the alternative 

we don't know what awaits us in that respect

so again, I'd like  see the world proceed with caution and look to change the mindset of the public in terms of hygiene and sanitsation

but it won't

see what happens

anything beyond my family is out of my control anyway

just did some sums

comparing my average income for the last 7 months, compared to the 12 months previously, I'm currently 25% down per month

it's not pleasent, it means no pension contributions or additional mortgage payments, and I've got daughter's education to consider next

I'd like nothing more than to get back on track, though I suspect a fuck it and crack on approach wouldn't have me back to 100% anytime soon

Let’s say your -25% is an extreme 

Let’s say the country NETS out at -10% and we cut our public spending by -10% to compensate 

if a 20% increase over 10 years meant 130k died then a 10% reduction would likely mean many more 

As you say, we won’t know until we get there, however if in ten years we look back and say more have died because of cuts in spending than we saved trashing the economy in the first place then it was all for nothing 

[Marc505]

10 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

When the vaccine does come who gets it first? 

Common sense would say you give it to the ones most likely to end up in hospital / dying from Covid 

But by the same token common sense would say you restrict the vulnerable groups from going to pubs and restaurants before you ban everyone 

I'd say vulnerable people, people in care homes and front line NHS. Even then it's a massive undertaking. 

Be very interesting to see what they do about hospitality, pub/restaurant opening, attending stadiums etc when the vaccine is in play. How does a place know who's had it and who hasnt?

[Escobarp]

Medical passports or some form of ID card that can record the vaccination. 

[Marc505]

7 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Medical passports or some form of ID card that can record the vaccination. 

I'd be happy to do that, delighted even, if it meant I could carry on with my normal life but there will be many who wont.

Then again I suppose those who wouldn't do that probably also wouldn't have the vaccine anyway, if it's not compulsory.

Read some shite this week about a "Patent 060606" conspiracy of course involving Bill Gates and a New World Order. It was in the replies to an Ian Brown tweet 😆

Edited October 10, 2020 by Marc505

[Zico]

8 minutes ago, Marc505 said:

I'd say vulnerable people, people in care homes and front line NHS. Even then it's a massive undertaking. 

Be very interesting to see what they do about hospitality, pub/restaurant opening, attending stadiums etc when the vaccine is in play. How does a place know who's had it and who hasnt?

some sort of tattoo on your forehead, shaped like a penis, which can only be removed once you've had the vaccine

[Guest]

Who should get the vaccine first?

Utd fans should be last

[Tombwfc]

44 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

You could tier it....

2.2m fully shielding 

Over 60’s, obese, asthmatic’s not to go into pubs, restaurants etc 

Restrictions are based on risk, yet the biggest determinator of risk is being ignored 

 

Is that really practical, or even a better solution? Bar staff checking your BMI & lung capacity before taking your order.

As much as I take your points about the economy... the problem lies with the virus. Have the virus under control and you can open things up. Lose control and you can't.

The world where half the country volunteers to lock themselves away while the other half agrees to contract the virus on their behalf - I can't see how that exists, or how it would actually save the economy in any case.

[Boby Brno]

1 hour ago, jayjayoghani said:

Except the nations that have coped well with Covid

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/australia-s-international-travel-ban-likely-to-remain-until-late-2021

I’ll be ok as I’ll, hopefully, be a resident of Prague by then.
 

 

Actually, maybe not.

https://www.euronews.com/amp/2020/10/06/czech-hospitals-under-pressure-as-coronavirus-cases-surge

[birch-chorley]

52 minutes ago, Tombwfc said:

 

Is that really practical, or even a better solution? Bar staff checking your BMI & lung capacity before taking your order.

As much as I take your points about the economy... the problem lies with the virus. Have the virus under control and you can open things up. Lose control and you can't.

The world where half the country volunteers to lock themselves away while the other half agrees to contract the virus on their behalf - I can't see how that exists, or how it would actually save the economy in any case.

Come on, don’t be daft, like most of these things the government would be asking for adherence rather than getting restaurant staff to impose it. Most would adhere to the rules, some won’t 

As things stand we will be in a bizarre situation where a 21 year old from ‘the North’ (who has a 1 in a 100,000 chance of dying from Covid) can’t go into their local pub as they are shut, yet 5 miles to ‘the South’ a 90 year old with pre existing conditions (who has a 1 in 5 chance of dying from Covid) can go to their local 

anyone who thinks it’s impractical to ask the vulnerable groups to shield needs their heads testing IMO 

[Casino]

Birch, youre wasting your time

You have an opinion, the tread carefully lot have theirs

Im much nearer to you, as like i say, it could be no vaccine and covid, 20,21 and 22 incoming

But nobody is changing their position on this

Nobody on either 'side'

This is no life and im sick to the back teeth of working all week then hiding away

Too old for it all

Edited October 10, 2020 by Casino

[Spider]

It’s turned into Brexit

People simply wont want to change their opinion as they feel it somehow makes them look weak.

Its a changing situation. We need to assess it day to day.

i know a few more people who’ve tested positive. So we’re only heading in one direction right now

[Lt. Aldo Raine]

For the most part, I'd wager that the most vulnerable groups have been shielding throughout. 

There are plenty of people in this country who meet the medical definition of obese and who aren't shielding themselves, though. In fact, obesity is a particular problem for the country in relation to our fight against the disease.

I don't know what the answer as we obviously can't continue the way we are for very much longer, but I don't think there's currently a clear way out of this. 

[Marc505]

6 minutes ago, Spider said:

It’s turned into Brexit

I agree with this, feels like the country has been arguing with eachother for about 5 years now non stop, fucking bored of it.