Coronavirus

[little whitt]

2 hours ago, birch-chorley said:

Aye, but the over 80’s account for half of all the risk to the NHS, get those 3.4m done and half the risk to the NHS disappears, with it the chances of the NHS collapsing 

Once those 3.4m have had their second dose we should be able to operate with the country in Tier 1 or 2. Then we have another 12m people to get through in order to reduce the risk to the NHS by 99%. At which point it should be business as usual whilst the rest of the country gets sorted 

thats at least easter

[birch-chorley]

1 hour ago, emus wig said:

How many clinically obese people do you think there are ? This part of the population is classed as vulnerable . I think the groups classed as vulnerable is larger than most people think .

 

53 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

And most over 75 are vulnerable by default because their bodies can't cope if they catch it 

And many of them rely on a non vulnerable person to get by  

It's ok asking a couple of old dears to sit tight presuming one can get the shopping in then cook etc 

But plenty can't

 

 

Think it was Van Tam that said the most vulnerable 15m people represent 99% of the risk to the NHS, vulnerable people beyond that represent little risk to the NHS 

If you look at hospitalisation data, the over 80’s account for around half of the admissions. So you get those done and the risk to the NHS has halved, that’s less than 5m people needing vaccinating to achieve 50% reduction in risk 

The Tiers are worked out partly based on number of total cases but also by cases in the over 65’s and most importantly hospital capacity. Once the over 80’s have had a vaccine cases in the over 65’s will reduce and the risk to hospitals reaching capacity will halve. That should see the country work back down the Tiers. Clearly we will be in either Tier 1 or 2 until 15m have had it and 99% of the risk has gone but those first 5m vaccinations are the most important 

[Not in Crawley]

Just got this text, anyone else got one like it from their local NHS?

The first phase of the NHS Covid-19 vaccination programme has begun in Bromley. You will be contacted when you become eligible. Please do NOT contact the practice to get an appointment. Your support is appreciated to keep phone lines open for people who need to make appointments for other health matters.

[Farrelli]

2 hours ago, Ani said:

The problem was that we were sending infected people back into care homes. 

Indeed with inadequate PPE and then later Boris had the audacity to say the spread in care homes was due to not following the rules, cheeky twat.

[burnden]

Briefing on BBC shortly , around 3pm.

[jmjhb]

no more fucking off to Culcheth for a sneaky pint

 

 

 

[jules_darby]

Just now, burnden said:

Briefing on BBC shortly , around 3pm.

Whole country into T4 Boxing Day?

 

[Guest]

Just seeing the aerial pics of Dover its crazy! nice to hear locals helping out and offering them food & drink👍

[burnden]

4 minutes ago, jules_darby said:

Whole country into T4 Boxing Day?

 

Deffo some places not sure if everywhere , Essex, Sussex, Surrey, Oxfordshire and Hampshire according to fella in The Times

 

[jules_darby]

7 minutes ago, radcliffewhite1 said:

Just seeing the aerial pics of Dover its crazy! nice to hear locals helping out and offering them food & drink👍

Loads of folk doing a cracking job there

Saw a Sikh group was making KA loads of meals

Keeps faith in humanity alive. Need it at the mo!

[Zico]

36 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

 

Think it was Van Tam that said the most vulnerable 15m people represent 99% of the risk to the NHS, vulnerable people beyond that represent little risk to the NHS 

If you look at hospitalisation data, the over 80’s account for around half of the admissions. So you get those done and the risk to the NHS has halved, that’s less than 5m people needing vaccinating to achieve 50% reduction in risk 

The Tiers are worked out partly based on number of total cases but also by cases in the over 65’s and most importantly hospital capacity. Once the over 80’s have had a vaccine cases in the over 65’s will reduce and the risk to hospitals reaching capacity will halve. That should see the country work back down the Tiers. Clearly we will be in either Tier 1 or 2 until 15m have had it and 99% of the risk has gone but those first 5m vaccinations are the most important 

Yep

It's just not as easy as it sounds to shield the vulnerabile or those that look after them by asking them to stop in

Especially those on their own who needs help 

Vaccines can't come soon enough

[1969]

37 minutes ago, Not in Crawley said:

Just got this text, anyone else got one like it from their local NHS?

The first phase of the NHS Covid-19 vaccination programme has begun in Bromley. You will be contacted when you become eligible. Please do NOT contact the practice to get an appointment. Your support is appreciated to keep phone lines open for people who need to make appointments for other health matters.

Yes got similar last week 

[Not in Crawley]

2 minutes ago, 1969 said:

Yes got similar last week 

Actually I think it might be from our GP

 

[birch-chorley]

5 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

Yep

It's just not as easy as it sounds to shield the vulnerabile or those that look after them by asking them to stop in

Especially those on their own who needs help 

Vaccines can't come soon enough

Of course not, but as every million vaccines are rolled out the risk decreases, the risk should rapidly reduce early on as they are given to the most likely to require hospitalisation 

We should move down the tiers with it 

Some seem to think we should lock down in Tier 3 or 4 until all 15m have been vaccinated, which would be completely ridiculous 

Edited December 23, 2020 by birch-chorley

[Zico]

1 minute ago, birch-chorley said:

Of course not, but as every million vaccines are rolled out the risk increases, the risk should rapidly reduce early on as they are given to the most likely to require hospitalisation 

We should move down the tiers with it 

Some seem to think we should lock down in Tier 3 or 4 until all 15m have been vaccinated, which would be completely ridiculous 

Aye, best or worst case scenario, still got no idea when it will actually be when all the vulnerable get sorted, let alone every one else 

[birch-chorley]

3 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

Aye, best or worst case scenario, still got no idea when it will actually be when all the vulnerable get sorted, let alone every one else 

Fuck knows, the 1m vaccinations a week don’t seem to have started very well, that’s disappointing  considering we get through about 1m a week for a normal winter flu programme (granted this needs 2 but you’d like to think we could ramp up) 

I’d be happy with the 5m most vulnerable done by the end of January so we can move into Tier 2 / 1 in Feb with all restrictions gone by the end of Spring 

[Farrelli]

Another new variant has been detected from South Africa, sounds quite a bad development.

[jules_darby]

Matt Hancock definitely eats crayons doesn’t he

[jmjhb]

What if London steals all our vaccines?

[jules_darby]

4 minutes ago, Farrelli said:

Another new variant has been detected from South Africa, sounds quite a bad development.

 

[Zico]

4 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Fuck knows, the 1m vaccinations a week don’t seem to have started very well, that’s disappointing  considering we get through about 1m a week for a normal winter flu programme (granted this needs 2 but you’d like to think we could ramp up) 

I’d be happy with the 5m most vulnerable done by the end of January so we can move into Tier 2 / 1 in Feb with all restrictions gone by the end of Spring 

2 new variants in a week might be what determines the tiers we are in next year, rather than the number vaccinated

[Zico]

5 minutes ago, Farrelli said:

Another new variant has been detected from South Africa, sounds quite a bad development.

It's definitely the most racist of the variants, kills more blicks

[mickbrown]

This sign language bloke is very entertaining

[jules_darby]

4 minutes ago, Mr Grey said:

 

 

 

So have those nations got these “new variant”?

[Sweep]

9 minutes ago, jmjhb said:

What if London steals all our vaccines?

@Escobarp

😁