It’s kicking off

Russian police arrest over 1000 protesters

Alexei Navalny, has been poisoned and arrested and still had this documentary released 

His wife has been arrested as well. 

Some serious minerals on this chap 

Edited February 27, 20224 yr by Rudy

On 17/01/2022 at 22:01, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Russian agents supposedly already there looking to "attack" or "provoke" Russian aggression by making if look like a Ukraine act of aggression, making retaliation justified.

Fwiw, I don't think they will.

Never get his pipeline then, and we'll be in Spring soon, so some demand for gas will be lost.

Aye, but the gas isn't going anywhere, they can afford to play the long game with that one

I don't think the Russians will roll over the border either, unless something happens as you say, that provokes it - no doubt some incident like the Ukraine*  shooting an Su-30 out of the sky is what will no doubt kick it off 

 

*Ukraine will say they have done nothing of the sort of course, and suggest it's the Russians taking down one of their own

What exactly can America do if they do invade? Sanctions? What else, cyber attacks, strongly worded letter?

Edited January 21, 20224 yr by Rudy

Sounds to me like they'd go into combat.

Pretty worrying really. 

We wont be far behind em.

Everyone's itching to try their new gear out, but not directly against eachother. Save that for Iran and China in a few years time. This might go to the brink and a massive build up, but no further and sense will be seen.

I hope.

48 minutes ago, gonzo said:

Sounds to me like they'd go into combat.

Pretty worrying really. 

We wont be far behind em.

Really can't see that happening......

3 hours ago, kent_white said:

Really can't see that happening......

I don't think they will go into Ukraine, though Tobias Ellwood said just a few hours ago, that he thinks they will, and within 30 days. 

He ex military so should have an incling.

Part of his reasoning is that too few countries have backed Ukraine with hardware, and says without others and nato following suit, then Putin has a green light.

23 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

I don't think they will go into Ukraine, though Tobias Ellwood said just a few hours ago, that he thinks they will, and within 30 days. 

He ex military so should have an incling.

Part of his reasoning is that too few countries have backed Ukraine with hardware, and says without others and nato following suit, then Putin has a green light.

Russia can justify it by saying a majority of Ukrainians in the east would vote to be part of Russia if they were given a vote on it. Like they did with Crimea.

Charge of the light brigade was for fuck all in the end.

19 minutes ago, Spider said:

Russia can justify it by saying a majority of Ukrainians in the east would vote to be part of Russia if they were given a vote on it. Like they did with Crimea.

Charge of the light brigade was for fuck all in the end.

In the days of the USSR they'd seed the states with ethnic Russians, kind of like ethnic cleansing - when Lithuania ceded they made the Russians learn Lithuanian or they became 2nd class citizens.

It simply won't happen, it'd make the Iraq insurgency look like two drag queens fighting over a discounted handbag.

30 minutes ago, Spider said:

Russia can justify it by saying a majority of Ukrainians in the east would vote to be part of Russia if they were given a vote on it. Like they did with Crimea.

Charge of the light brigade was for fuck all in the end.

Put London in the EU then!

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-accused-by-foreign-office-of-plot-to-install-pro-kremlin-leader-to-head-ukraines-government-12523198

 

Its gonna go off

Just now, gonzo said:

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-accused-by-foreign-office-of-plot-to-install-pro-kremlin-leader-to-head-ukraines-government-12523198

 

Its gonna go off

It’ll be fine

Liz Truss is getting involved.

Pretty sure this is just more sabre rattling by Putin as a prelude to some sort of negotiation.

It will be interesting to see if he is finally 'done in' by his own people.

4 hours ago, bolty58 said:

Pretty sure this is just more sabre rattling by Putin as a prelude to some sort of negotiation.

It will be interesting to see if he is finally 'done in' by his own people.

That's the tight rope he's walking at the moment. Trying a bit muscle flexing to bolster home support, which has wavered somewhat recently. Go too far though, and folk may well turn on him even more.

if they go in 

nout much anyone can do 

not going to Nuke  them 

and if they cut our Gas off where Fucked

15 minutes ago, little whitt said:

if they go in 

nout much anyone can do 

not going to Nuke  them 

and if they cut our Gas off where Fucked

Russian gas only accounts for around 5% of that used by the UK.

Shouldn't affect us too much...

Always fracking to fall back on

15 hours ago, Spider said:

It’ll be fine

Liz Truss is getting involved.

🤦‍♂️

3 hours ago, gonzo said:

Always fracking to fall back on

Start drilling in your back garden, you might be a millionaire!

Couple of decent (long read) threads on this worth looking into.

This security think tank chairman is pretty certain Russia will invade 

 

But he's also confident it won't lead to NATO getting involved. (I'd agree that it would take a *lot* to draw NATO into a straight up shooting war with Russia. Neither side want it, Putin isn't an idiot and knows they'd suffer massively in a war with NATO, but it's one risky calculation.)

 

10 hours ago, bolty58 said:

Pretty sure this is just more sabre rattling by Putin as a prelude to some sort of negotiation.

It will be interesting to see if he is finally 'done in' by his own people.

Is my view. However, I’m not entirely sure what he wants to get out of all this if it’s not actually Ukraine? A lot of Russkies worldwide are making a lot of money and wouldn’t be happy with Putin making the country (and them by association) a pariah. 

27 minutes ago, MancWanderer said:

Is my view. However, I’m not entirely sure what he wants to get out of all this if it’s not actually Ukraine? A lot of Russkies worldwide are making a lot of money and wouldn’t be happy with Putin making the country (and them by association) a pariah. 

He doesn't want NATO on his border so he'll be hoping he can effectively control it by forcing in a government sympathetic to Russia, meaning the countrt will effectively abandon its plans to join NATO/EU.

He’s going in.

He needs to prove himself a tough leader and wants a legacy.

Its all about him. That’s what folk don’t always realise.

If he does sense unrest politically, this will get people behind him.

America has no appetite for another foreign conflict after 20 years of watching their soldiers come home in coffins.

Europe is busy falling out with itself and struggling after a pandemic.

Putin will never have an open goal like this again and he will take it, he really will.

47 minutes ago, Spider said:

He’s going in.

He needs to prove himself a tough leader and wants a legacy.

Its all about him. That’s what folk don’t always realise.

If he does sense unrest politically, this will get people behind him.

America has no appetite for another foreign conflict after 20 years of watching their soldiers come home in coffins.

Europe is busy falling out with itself and struggling after a pandemic.

Putin will never have an open goal like this again and he will take it, he really will.

Going off that thread I posted earlier and other articles I've seen recently it's not all just about Putin sensing some weakness around Europe that he can take advantage of, he does genuinely belive that NATO are trying to threaten his borders, whether we on this side think that's daft or not.

Not to mention deep ingrained Russian paranoia about invasions of their country throughout history. Its like a feeling of insecurity is embedded into their psyche. Could do a full degree course on that subject alone!

At the end of the day though, both sides are going to feel like it's not worth starting WWIII over. Which seems horrible and cynical to say when that might even mean the deaths of hundreds or thousands of Ukrainians. 

Edited January 23, 20224 yr by Marc505

2 hours ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

He doesn't want NATO on his border so he'll be hoping he can effectively control it by forcing in a government sympathetic to Russia, meaning the countrt will effectively abandon its plans to join NATO/EU.

But it’s only Ukraine? What about the rest of the border? I’ll hold my hands up and admit I know very little. It’s summat I’ve let pass so need educating 

 

Meanwhile.