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1 minute ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Cash out dropping again now surely, despite the victory.

On title yes, not sure promotion. Top 7 might pay out in full. 

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Actually the new Bolton is go one up, miss 27 chances then defend for last 25 minutes potentially with 10 men and pretty certain with a non goal keeper in nets after Gilks injures himself knee sliding

Talk about a week being a long time in football.  With 10 minutes to go at Mansfield they were 2 pts above us with a game in hand, top of the form table and looking at play offs.  A week later we're 1

Still have every faith. Not even arsed we lost today. Had to lose somewhere and now is the right time to do it. I think Maddison needs a couple of starts.

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1 hour ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Of course, I'm more thinking the guys hanging on for the bigger money of top spot.

Think that's gone now, though not impossible. 

Offering me £61.76 on my £100.00 at 10-1.

Think I'll leave it. Win our last three and it could well come off.

On the other hand, we look a bit shit again recently 🤔

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What has happened here, is that other teams around us have started winning their games, for a dozen games or so these teams were inconsistent and that allowed us to move up and consolidate our position in the top 7.

We are now 3rd with 3 games to go and would have been home and dry had we done better in the first 25 games of this season, thats how much start we gave to these shit fucking L2 lot, and the majority of these teams are battled hardened, long ball, long throw teams that won't make it easy for you, and why should they?, we are a scalp in this league, every fuckers Cup final, nice ground, big history etc...

In essence our season has been defined by the last 20 games, squeaky bum time, get a result at Morecambe and we go up...simple as.

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despite our 'blip' i believe we are one point off the top of the form table of the teams at the top...ie as far down as newport

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9 minutes ago, Casino said:

despite our 'blip' i believe we are one point off the top of the form table of the teams at the top...ie as far down as newport

Top four all won 3 of last five.

We've lost 2, the rest have drawn one and lost one.

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15 hours ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Of course, I'm more thinking the guys hanging on for the bigger money of top spot.

Think that's gone now, though not impossible. 

Mine are all each way based on the top three so I’m happy to let mine ride. Main thing is avoiding the play offs. 

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On 18/04/2021 at 14:42, jmjhb said:

51.7% chance of Top 3

3.0% 1st

11.8% 2nd

36.9% 3rd

76 points gives a 49.4% chance of promotion

77 points gives a 75.5% chance

Hmm, not sure I agree with this - despite winning last night our chances of top 3 have gone down 5%:

46.1% chance of Top 3

0.8% 1st

7.0% 2nd

38.2% 3rd

77 points gives a 41.6% chance of promotion

78 points gives a 62.8% chance

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2 hours ago, jmjhb said:

Hmm, not sure I agree with this - despite winning last night our chances of top 3 have gone down 5%:

46.1% chance of Top 3

0.8% 1st

7.0% 2nd

38.2% 3rd

77 points gives a 41.6% chance of promotion

78 points gives a 62.8% chance

Seems weird, unless it takes the form of other clubs into account too.

That 78 points is actually quite telling- it means 5 points, which in turn means stopping Morecambe beating us. Could be vital.

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23 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Seems weird, unless it takes the form of other clubs into account too.

That 78 points is actually quite telling- it means 5 points, which in turn means stopping Morecambe beating us. Could be vital.

Or remaining games?

Morecambe H PPG 1.95

Exeter A PPG 1.23

Crawley H PPG 1.67

v

Bolton A PPG 1.67

Walsall H PPG 1.23

Bradford A PPG 1.19

 

So on paper our opponents earn more points home/away respectively. 

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5 hours ago, burnden said:

You can end up making out our “form” to be whatever you want it to be. 4 games has us level on points with Morecambe, 8 has us above them.

Play to our best and potential, which we have done more often than not since January we’ll win. I’ve accepted that this won’t be a comfortable or convincing scoreline but I’m sure the majority of us don’t give a shiny shite as long as we win. Some of us (not me) will be happy with a point. I get this as it still leaves it all in our hands. 

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38 minutes ago, radcliffewhite1 said:

Lose and forget it I know it’s been a very unpredictable league but morecambe have 2 good fixtures there 

Unless Bradford need something from the last game to get in the play offs, could have done with them beating trampmere last night.

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2 hours ago, Razaldo9 said:

Or remaining games?

Morecambe H PPG 1.95

Exeter A PPG 1.23

Crawley H PPG 1.67

v

Bolton A PPG 1.67

Walsall H PPG 1.23

Bradford A PPG 1.19

 

So on paper our opponents earn more points home/away respectively. 

Could be, suppose that's where overall stats can be misleading, when compared to recent form.

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14 minutes ago, marple whites said:

Unless Bradford need something from the last game to get in the play offs, could have done with them beating trampmere last night.

Think they’re 7 points off can’t see that being made up myself 

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7 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Got a niggling feeling that if we don’t beat Morecambe we won’t be automatically promoted. 

Need to not lose. We’ll win the last 2.

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1 hour ago, RUREADY2ROLL said:

Not sure; we have been bobbins since Cambridge. The bad Easter and loss of Sarc has done our confidence 

Sarc may well be back.

On paper, Morecambe's last two are easier than ours.

I have a feeling we may have to beat them, unless Cheltenham have a wobble.

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