Jump to content
Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

Play offs - Can we get there


Ani

Recommended Posts

Personally think unlikely as too many decent teams have a start on us. Wigan and Rotherham have top and second nailed on.
 

Meant to be busy at work today but all delayed so spent some time looking at the numbers. Think fair to say it is 4 from 8 for play offs. Off those 8 we currently have the lowest points per game (ppg). So based on that not much chance.

however if you take ppg for last 10 games and project that forward for rest of season we end up 3rd of 8 so 5th in table playing Plymouth in the semi final with Mk dons and Sheff Weds in other game. 
 

Is it realistic that we maintain 2.5 ppg for rest of season ? Probably not. But it is not total pie in the sky. 
 

Also I have a nagging thought in my head that this team with another 12 months development and avoiding the run of injuries could be so much stronger to push for promotion and then stay up, but losing a couple of players could knock us right in some comes offering good £££. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If we don't get an injury crisis between now and end of the season then I believe we will sneak into them.

Our squad has won 8 of the last 10 games, that's no fluke. And the current 3rd-9th place teams are nothing special. 

At the weekend:

We will beat MK Dons, Wigan will beat Sunderland, Rotherham will beat Plymouth and we will be within 2 points of the current last two playoff spots. I'd bet that from Sheffield, Ipswich and Wycombe, at least one of those will drop points.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, radcliffe white said:

That’s my take

I have my doubts we can go to places like Crewe & donny and do the business 

No probs at Crewe & Donny imo

Its places like MK Dons and Wigan away where we might come unstuck 

Not to mention Sheff Weds, Pompey & Plymouth at home.

It depends which Bolton turn up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Biggish Dave said:

For me, we'd need to have a run in the next 10 similar to the last 10 and beat all of Portsmouth, Plymouth and Sheffield Wednesday into the mix. 

There are too many things which have to fall right. We'll fall short - this season

All of those 3 matches are at home and I believe all 3 have a couple of games extra to play whereas we could be well rested

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We need 25 points to reach 76 which is the average 6th place points tally.

Therefore, 8 wins and a draw from 12 games is likely what will be needed to guarantee playoffs. Which means losing only 3 games until end of the season. I think it will be less though as the top teams have to play each other. Let's say 24.

Screenshot-2022-02-24-at-15-05-40.png

If you use this colour coded fixture list (home games in caps), and say:

We win our winnable games: Gillingham, Morecambe, Crewe, Doncaster, Accrington, Cheltenham, Fleetwood. (21 points)

Draw our challenging games: Sheffield Wednesday, Portsmouth, Plymouth (3 points)

Lose our 2 toughest games. MK Dons, Wigan (0 points)

 

That gives us 24 points.

Obviously won't be as simple as that, but it's a blueprint to achieve it if you use the league table as a benchmark.

Edited by Mantra
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it’s possible but a big ask. If we do it’ll be great and a day at Wembley would be brilliant.

If we don’t, we come back next year stronger and go for the title, and be stronger for the Championship the year after if we get there.

Either way, 2 1/2 years ago is still fresh in the mind, and the last two seasons are probably beyond most fans expectations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.