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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

L1 Predictions 2022/23


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I hate the term over achievers. Clubs are there on merit. Whether they stay there will only be known in the fullness of time.

By what criteria can you assess a team's capability before the season kicks off, unless you've made genuine efforts to look at each club's players etc?

After 10 or 11 games, some semblance of placings may be emerging, but how are Plymouth over achieving given their performances last season?

Fwiw, as well as we are doing at the moment, we need to improve in the final third and be a bit more ruthless.

Do that, and pick up some wins against those around us and I'd be confident that automatic promotion is very much on.

At the moment, I'm not so sure- the Wednesday game still lingers. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

I hate the term over achievers. Clubs are there on merit. Whether they stay there will only be known in the fullness of time.

By what criteria can you assess a team's capability before the season kicks off, unless you've made genuine efforts to look at each club's players etc?

I think by "overachievers" people probably mean overachieving relative to what they think the club's resources are.

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7 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

I hate the term over achievers. Clubs are there on merit. Whether they stay there will only be known in the fullness of time.

By what criteria can you assess a team's capability before the season kicks off, unless you've made genuine efforts to look at each club's players etc?

After 10 or 11 games, some semblance of placings may be emerging, but how are Plymouth over achieving given their performances last season?

Fwiw, as well as we are doing at the moment, we need to improve in the final third and be a bit more ruthless.

Do that, and pick up some wins against those around us and I'd be confident that automatic promotion is very much on.

At the moment, I'm not so sure- the Wednesday game still lingers. 

 

The Sheff game annoys me too. A few minutes of madness with Bradley and those two goals. One shot could make the league look a little quite different.

It’s hard/impossible for us to be objective about Bolton. But having said that, the stats say that we have played 10 games in the league. Only 4 teams have scored against us. Plymouth (1st, away from home), Ipswich (2nd away from home), Sheff (3rd, inc a Santos brain fart) and Charlton (Johnston balls-up).

I’ve paraphrased Whiskey-Nose a few times on here (pinko alert*) but goals win games, defence win titles. With a bit of compose against the top teams I really fancy us.

 

* @Casino, I already know what you’re thinking.

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Need to keep this momentum going. 

Cheltenham A

FGR A

Barnsley H

Accy A

Burton H

Oxford H

18 points on offer. All very winnable games if we keep playing to the standard we are doing right now.

I think the current top 8 will probably pull away from the rest and it'll be very tight between all those clubs for who makes playoffs and autos. Still backing us for autos.

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26 minutes ago, Mantra said:

Need to keep this momentum going. 

Cheltenham A

FGR A

Barnsley H

Accy A

Burton H

Oxford H

18 points on offer. All very winnable games if we keep playing to the standard we are doing right now.

I think the current top 8 will probably pull away from the rest and it'll be very tight between all those clubs for who makes playoffs and autos. Still backing us for autos.

I don’t want to appear greedy but anything less than 15 points would be a disappointment.

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1 hour ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

I hate the term over achievers. Clubs are there on merit. Whether they stay there will only be known in the fullness of time.

By what criteria can you assess a team's capability before the season kicks off, unless you've made genuine efforts to look at each club's players etc?

After 10 or 11 games, some semblance of placings may be emerging, but how are Plymouth over achieving given their performances last season?

Fwiw, as well as we are doing at the moment, we need to improve in the final third and be a bit more ruthless.

Do that, and pick up some wins against those around us and I'd be confident that automatic promotion is very much on.

At the moment, I'm not so sure- the Wednesday game still lingers. 

 

Over/under achievers was just me searching for a phrase to describe teams being higher than expected, going off pre-season predictions.  Maybe surprisingly successful/disappointing would be a better description. 

Re criteria, purely based on general expectations and bookies odds. I based mine on last season and transfers in/out or managerial changes; the one's I've misjudged are Oxford (a mystery), Wycombe (play off hangover?) and MK Dons (I underestimated the effect of losing some good players).

Plymouth are "over achieving" for me because last season they finished with 2 wins in their last 9 (and 0-5 last game) and had also lost Ryan Lowe mid season.  I think we all expected them to be top 10, I don't think one person had them above Sheff Wed and Ipswich.  Not only that, they have played 6 of the top 8 and won 5 of them, leading the other till the last minute.  And that doesn't include winning at expected top half teams Wycombe and Oxford.  Really impressive results so far, but we're only a quarter of the way into the season.

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48 minutes ago, Mantra said:

Need to keep this momentum going. 

Cheltenham A - win

FGR A - win

Barnsley H - win

Accy A - draw

Burton H - win

Oxford H - win

18 points on offer. All very winnable games if we keep playing to the standard we are doing right now.

I think the current top 8 will probably pull away from the rest and it'll be very tight between all those clubs for who makes playoffs and autos. Still backing us for autos.

See above. Optimism.

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10 minutes ago, Casino said:

I dont see us winning this weeks 2 aways and i dont see us beating both of barnsley and oxford

Be happy with 12 and might even smile if we better it

As I’ve had too much Prosecco and Malbec for a Sunday afternoon/evening, I’d be happy to buy you a pint (or a G&T) if we fail for get 13 or more from the next 6. I’m up for Burton and Oxford.

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1 hour ago, Mantra said:

Need to keep this momentum going. 

Cheltenham A

FGR A

Barnsley H

Accy A

Burton H

Oxford H

18 points on offer. All very winnable games if we keep playing to the standard we are doing right now.

I think the current top 8 will probably pull away from the rest and it'll be very tight between all those clubs for who makes playoffs and autos. Still backing us for autos.

If Sheff Wed, Plymouth, Ipswich or Pompey had those fixtures I would expect them to get at least 14 points, anything less would be below par, given that 2 home games are against bottom half and FGR are conceding 3 every week, so there's the first 9 points.  Only 1 win from the other 3 would be disappointing; on the other hand it just takes a sending off, a dodgy pen or a defensive brain freeze to change any game.

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20 hours ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

I think by "overachievers" people probably mean overachieving relative to what they think the club's resources are.

Yes, absolutely. But in general, we don't fully know in the lower leagues what qualities the players have, nor the full resources. Kinell, until perhaps this season or maybe half way into last year, we didn't jave two coins to rub together, but a good gaffer got us up with rejects and lower league players.

I really do believe that at this level, a good manager, coaches and scouts counts for a hell of a lot, and perhaps more than the financial resources at a club. 

At the top of the pile, the ability to spend absolute bucket loads seems to help a bit more, though clearly without guarantees.

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2 hours ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Yes, absolutely. But in general, we don't fully know in the lower leagues what qualities the players have, nor the full resources. Kinell, until perhaps this season or maybe half way into last year, we didn't jave two coins to rub together, but a good gaffer got us up with rejects and lower league players.

I really do believe that at this level, a good manager, coaches and scouts counts for a hell of a lot, and perhaps more than the financial resources at a club. 

At the top of the pile, the ability to spend absolute bucket loads seems to help a bit more, though clearly without guarantees.

I agree on that.  See Paul Warne, Leam Richardson, John Coleman, Gareth Ainsworth (possibly staying at Wycombe too long though?), Michael Duff at Cheltenham now Barnsley, Mark Bonner at Cambridge.  Some are a bit of an unknown quantity like Schumacher at Plymouth but he seems to be proving himself in his own right and not just continuing what Lowe started, and McKenna at Ipswich seems to know what he's doing.  Counts for so much in lower divisions compared to Championship where much of it seems to be about how much money you've still got from Prem parachute payments.

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21 hours ago, Mantra said:

Need to keep this momentum going. 

Cheltenham A

FGR A

Barnsley H

Accy A

Burton H

Oxford H

18 points on offer. All very winnable games if we keep playing to the standard we are doing right now.

I think the current top 8 will probably pull away from the rest and it'll be very tight between all those clubs for who makes playoffs and autos. Still backing us for autos.

Anything more than 12 points would be good.

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Reality Vs Expectation creates confusion and contradiction when I make future predictions. 

I look at everyone of those games and on there own I think and expect us to win! That’s why I still have us winning the title! 😂

But in reality it’s ridiculously unlikely we are going to get 16-18 points. So then I have to select a game we are going to lose! It leads you down the path of choosing a game like Accrington, where we’ve never won or performed. But there’s no way I’m logging on to get tickets later in the expectation we aren’t going to win!

It is one game at a time. But in reality as @Traf says, 12 points would keep us on track. Convincing some when we drop 6 points that we’re still in contention will be tricky mind.

 

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The abyss of winter playing on cow fields with depleted sqauds is where will earn our stripes this season.

Not many will have our depth. Not many will have our never say die attitude as well.

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1 hour ago, Traf said:

12pts gives you 32 from 16.

That doesn't put you top 2, but keep getting 2pts a game all season does.

At the risk of over analysing it (I usually do so why make an exception here), "settling" for 4 points v Forest Green, Cheltenham, Morecambe, Burton etc to keep the average 2 pts a game going, means we have to be getting 4 points off Ipswich, Pompey, Sheff Wed, Plymouth etc.  We already can't do that for 2 of them, so the extra points have to be made up elsewhere.  I'm not saying 12 points wouldn't be an acceptable return, but it wouldn't keep us on track for 2 points a game realistically, I wouldn't expect the top teams to drop 6 points in these fixtures.  

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 02/10/2022 at 20:31, Mantra said:

Need to keep this momentum going. 

Cheltenham A

FGR A

Barnsley H

Accy A

Burton H

Oxford H

18 points on offer. All very winnable games if we keep playing to the standard we are doing right now.

I think the current top 8 will probably pull away from the rest and it'll be very tight between all those clubs for who makes playoffs and autos. Still backing us for autos.

Well if we can get 10 points it won't be too far off the general consensus of 12 being the benchmark!

Anyway the way Barnsley looked last week, and they lost 1-0 at Morecambe today, I don't expect them to make the play offs, I'd be disappointed if we don't stay above them.   Lots can change but I expect the top 6 and Derby to be the top 7, followed by Wycombe, Charlton and Barnsley in any order.  

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