Traf Posted July 5, 2008 Share Posted July 5, 2008 Buccellati's trainer was just on TV talking up his horse's chances too. Not sure if it will get there, but 7/1 seems a big price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 5, 2008 Share Posted July 5, 2008 I agree with the Guardian on Buccellati and Phoenix Tower, but I fancy MASAALEK in the 2:40 at Sandown who should reverse the form with Fifteen Love from Ascot. I don't particularly trust any Godolphin runners at the moment. Although the ground is an unknown, I fancy an EW shot at ARTHUR'S GIRL in the Lancashire Oaks although, as Traf says, if it pisses down much more Ana Pavlova will probably be the one to beat. Do we know how much more rain is forecast? I'll be backing ILLUSION in the 2:55 at Sandown. Maaalek was 3rd at 9/2 fav Illusion was 3rd at 13/2 Arthur's Girl was a non-runner. 2/2 placed. Don't forget: place betting is the future. As for the Guardian: Hoh Mike: 3rd @ 13/8 fav Allied Power: 4th @ 5/2 fav Gold Sovereign: non-runner Turbo Linn: 5th @ 6/1 Buccellati: 5th @ 13/2 Melodramatic: 6th @ 2/1 fav Better days to come, I reckon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
top_boy_84 Posted July 5, 2008 Author Share Posted July 5, 2008 Pretty poor tips from them today (annoying after talking them up so much) you'll have to take my word that they've been much better than this in recent weeks. A couple of places for me today but I just couldn't find that winner to make it an even better day. But you're right: place betting is the way to consistently show a profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 5, 2008 Share Posted July 5, 2008 In fairness TB, I think we both agreed with the Guardian's selections in principle. They just didn't get there for one reason or another. You can't judge any tipster off a snapshot of a couple of indifferent days. Not if you're thinking straight anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
top_boy_84 Posted July 8, 2008 Author Share Posted July 8, 2008 Willie Ever 4.45 Wolverhampton This lightly raced gelding's first four career runs for Willie Musson never saw him make the frame, but Brian Ellison got him on track with two seconds before a first victory last week. That came in a handicap over the extended mile at Wolverhampton, where he won by just under three lenghths. A 6lb penalty is unlikely to stop him over a furlong shorter if in the same mood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 I think the 6lbs extra and the shorter trip might just be the undoing. He's on my list of lays for today, so once again one of us will be happy. I just don't think he's great value at 15/8, but I might be wrong. I can't say who will win it, but Bentley, Motu and The City Kid seem the likeliest dangers. The City Kid looks a bit long at 6/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
top_boy_84 Posted July 8, 2008 Author Share Posted July 8, 2008 Chris CookJuly 8, 2008 12:02 PMWe think of training handicappers as a particular skill and we think we know which trainers are good at it, though the statistics don't always back up our perceptions. Of course, statistics are limited - a trainer's strike-rate in such contests might be undermined by having to persevere with older, exposed horses who struggle to find the winner's enclosure. In theory, nurseries should be a better guide to a trainer's skill at handicapping, as each horse's career in such races is limited to about half a season. Any trainer able to get the best out of a young horse and keep it improving should enjoy regular success in such races that is reflected in the stats. Over the last five years, Sir Mark Prescott has won 20 nurseries from 59 runners, an excellent strike-rate of 34% (compared to his overall 23%) for a level-stakes profit of 42% on all stakes. Of the other trainers with runners in Pontefract's opener, only Jamie Osborne wins such races at even half that rate, while Bryan Smart's 8% is surprisingly poor, given that his reputation rests on his ability with juveniles. Karl Burke's Johnmanderville has only a 6lb penalty for winning the year's first nursery last week and is surely well treated but Prescott's Predict (2.30) may have more in hand. She hacked up in a Wolverhampton maiden last time, when the half-length winning margin was simply down to her idling close home. If nurseries are not won by accident, neither are apprentice races. I suspect a lot of trainers use these events for their equine no-hopers, as a way to give unpressured practice to budding jockeys. Others, I'm sure, see them as winnable races featuring soft opposition and give as much thought to them as any other possible target. According to my copy of Raceform Interactive, which has nine years' worth of form, John Quinn's strike-rate in apprentice races is 18% for a profit on turnover of 70%. His Holiday Cocktail (5.00) should have won over this course and distance in a lady amateurs' race last time and has one of the better apprentices, Jamie Kyne, to get him home in front today. Pontefract is a good place for a strong finisher and John Keats (4.00) won a nursery here in 2005, one of only two visits he has made. Along with many of Jim Goldie's, he is in good heart just now and is a worthy favourite for the six-furlong handicap. There was a time when the bias towards those drawn low was a great way into sprint handicaps at Wolverhampton but that seems to have died a death now and today's card there looks as tricky as ever. Still, I like the look of newcomer Learo Dochais (2.15) in the opener, in which those of his rivals with experience have already proved themselves pretty moderate. Later, The City Kid (4.45) can turn over favourite Willie Ever, who is being supported on the basis of his recent victory over a furlong further. He had previously looked short of pace over this trip, whereas The City Kid's form over course and distance is 1212. I'm surprised she's as big as 7-1 on Betfair - as ever, one can only hope this is not the start of a major drift, signalling something amiss. Is John Keats still on your list Traf? He looks an excellent bet as the guy in the Guardian says. He also agrees with you on The City Kid - difference of opinion there in Guardian HQ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Is John Keats still on your list Traf? He looks an excellent bet as the guy in the Guardian says. He also agrees with you on The City Kid - difference of opinion there in Guardian HQ. Aye, Keats is still there and will be in the mix again today. Mr Wolf runs in the same race. Now his form is shocking, but look at his record at Pontefract. Worth backing for a place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 "Karl Burke's Johnmanderville has only a 6lb penalty for winning the year's first nursery last week and is surely well treated but Prescott's Predict (2.30) may have more in hand. She hacked up in a Wolverhampton maiden last time, when the half-length winning margin was simply down to her idling close home." I prefer Johnmanderville to Predict and I'll lay Predict today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Holiday Cocktail (5.00) should have won over this course and distance in a lady amateurs' race last time and has one of the better apprentices, Jamie Kyne, to get him home in front today. Also on my lay list today. I prefer the look of the top weight here: Annibale Caro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Learo Dochais was 2nd in the opener: 1.25 lengths behind 10/1 shot: City Diamond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 "Karl Burke's Johnmanderville has only a 6lb penalty for winning the year's first nursery last week and is surely well treated but Prescott's Predict (2.30) may have more in hand. She hacked up in a Wolverhampton maiden last time, when the half-length winning margin was simply down to her idling close home."I prefer Johnmanderville to Predict and I'll lay Predict today. Right to lay Predict: unplaced. 1. Rosabee 33/1 (58 on betfair) 2. Madame Jourdain 33/1 (67 on betfair) 3. Tagula Breeze 15/2 (10 on betfair) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Predict was the unplaced 6/4 favourite. Fortunately I had the forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Predict was the unplaced 6/4 favourite. Fortunately I had the forecast. I wouldn't have believed you, if I hadn't already got the tricast myself! Just ?86938.50 back from a tenner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
top_boy_84 Posted July 8, 2008 Author Share Posted July 8, 2008 (edited) Aye, Keats is still there and will be in the mix again today.Mr Wolf runs in the same race. Now his form is shocking, but look at his record at Pontefract. Worth backing for a place. Mr Wolf's record at Pontefract is indeed very good - worth a place bet. I fancy Select Committee in the 3:30 at Pontefract at decent-ish odds. Edited July 8, 2008 by top_boy_84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Mr Wolf's record at Pontefract is indeed very good - worth a place bet. I fancy Select Committee in the 3:30 at Pontefract at decent-ish odds. Select Committee was one of my lays too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Is John Keats still on your list Traf? He looks an excellent bet as the guy in the Guardian says. He also agrees with you on The City Kid - difference of opinion there in Guardian HQ. The ever-reliable Keats was placed again, but I reckon the handicapper's got him now. Probably won't win for a while now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
top_boy_84 Posted July 8, 2008 Author Share Posted July 8, 2008 Select Committee was one of my lays too! I think you're winning three nil now. At least let me have a consolation success... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Ah, but I'm laying, not backing. My potential losses could be much higher! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Is John Keats still on your list Traf? He looks an excellent bet as the guy in the Guardian says. He also agrees with you on The City Kid - difference of opinion there in Guardian HQ. City Kid's out to 11/1 on betfair now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Just laid Willie Ever in the 4.45 at 1.94. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 I think the 6lbs extra and the shorter trip might just be the undoing.He's on my list of lays for today, so once again one of us will be happy. I just don't think he's great value at 15/8, but I might be wrong. I can't say who will win it, but Bentley, Motu and The City Kid seem the likeliest dangers. The City Kid looks a bit long at 6/1. Bentley was backed right into 5/1 at the off, but the favourite won in the end. Willie Ever won at 5/6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
top_boy_84 Posted July 8, 2008 Author Share Posted July 8, 2008 According to my copy of Raceform Interactive, which has nine years' worth of form, John Quinn's strike-rate in apprentice races is 18% for a profit on turnover of 70%. His Holiday Cocktail (5.00) should have won over this course and distance in a lady amateurs' race last time and has one of the better apprentices, Jamie Kyne, to get him home in front today. Won at 7/2. Good end to the day for the Guardian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Won at 7/2. Good end to the day for the Guardian. Not so good for me. 2 losing lays at the death. There's always tonight, though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
top_boy_84 Posted July 8, 2008 Author Share Posted July 8, 2008 Not so good for me.2 losing lays at the death. There's always tonight, though! But you had plenty of successful lays earlier in the day (is this the wrong forum to get into a discussion like this)? Either way, I'll say what I fancy tonight and you can match them up against your lay list Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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