First Attempt At System Building

[Maggie Tate]

It isn't terribly exciting but more of an experiment. Outside of weekends I haven't got time to go through race cards, but would like to find a way to place regular bets with a reasonable prospect of moderate success.

 

The idea, before refinement, is to pick out national hunt trainers who send out a good number of runners and select tracks where they excel. As this is experimental I have no set method for finding out decent angles - it rather depends on what eye catching stats I see day to day over at horseracebase. For instance, Nicky Henderson is probably the best trainer there is, but backing him blind would be disasterous. Backing him blind at Kempton, however, would be profitable. I'm looking for a combination of regular runners, a high strike rate of around 18% up, and a good profit/loss. This will probably lead to a bias towards bigger names.

 

Not sure about staking, don't know anything about it. There likely will be a cut off between win only and each way bets.

 

Will post criteria, selections and results when I get chance till I'm either satisfied or bored or too busy. Criteria will be refined as I get the chance to investigate in more depth.

 

Happy to take advice and guidance - I AM A TOTAL NOVICE.

Edited January 31, 2013 by Maggie Tate

[Traf]

Now you're talking!

This is, of course, what I spend much of my time doing: looking for profitable angles based on past performance.

 

The main problem with Henderson (and other big name trainers) is that the angle soon becomes public knowledge and as a result the selections are overbet.

 

Here's one for you to consider, as an addition to a betting portfolio:

 

Trainer Malcolm Jefferson's horses in handicap contests only: 36 winners from 211 races in 2011 & 2012.

Strike rate = 17.1% (close to your target) and profitable to the tune of 170pts at SP. That's a return of 81% on your money, which would be improved at either betfair SP or by taking early BOG odds.

 

In races of 5 runners of more: 78 successful E/W bets from 208 (37.5%) yielding 232pts profit at SP (55.8% return)

 

Hope this helps you.

[Maggie Tate]

Fiddled a bit yesterday to come up with some examples:

 

Dr Richard Newland - Ascot, Warwick, Uttoxeter: since 2006, 100 win only bets, 25% strike rate, profit of 75. Profitable all of the last four years.

Nicky Henderson - Kempton, Huntingdon, Leicester, Newmarket (Rowley): since 2003, 642 bets, 189 wins, 29% strike rate, profit 124. Profitable 6 of thes years, majorly so in four of them and either low number of runners or a smal loss in others.

Venetia Williams - Ffos Las, Huntingdon, Taunton, Towcester, since 2003, 107 from 547, 20% S/R, 162 profit, 6 profitable years and only one particularly bad one.

Longsdon - Bangor, Stratford, Warwick: since 2006, 37 of 187, 20% win, 93 profit, profits in all the last five years.

Tim Vaughan - Bangor, Stratford, Warwick, Taunton, Uttoxeter, since 2007 (barely any runners prior) 83 of 452, 102 profit, last three years happily profitable.

P J Hobbs - Bangor, Punchestown, Chepstow, 102 of 505, 73 profit, profitable the last four years

N Twiston-Davies - Hexham, Market Rasen, Perth, Warwick, 138 of 552 since 2003 , 208 profit, profitable 9 of 11 years

S J Smith - One to be careful with but tracks are Carlisle, Haydock, Perth, Uttoxeter, 116 of 854 is a lower SR, but profit of 71 and a great 2012 when longer priced winners were frequent. One to discard if it dries up.

 

You get the idea.

 

So today we've got Towcester and Venetia Williams runs:

 

1.50 Vinnieslittlelamb

3.20 Runaway Green

3.50 Gorgehous Lliege

 

The firstand last there have strong shouts, the middle one not so.

[Maggie Tate]

Now you're talking!

This is, of course, what I spend much of my time doing: looking for profitable angles based on past performance.

 

The main problem with Henderson (and other big name trainers) is that the angle soon becomes public knowledge and as a result the selections are overbet.

 

Here's one for you to consider, as an addition to a betting portfolio:

 

Trainer Malcolm Jefferson's horses in handicap contests only: 36 winners from 211 races in 2011 & 2012.

Strike rate = 17.1% (close to your target) and profitable to the tune of 170pts at SP. That's a return of 81% on your money, which would be improved at either betfair SP or by taking early BOG odds.

 

In races of 5 runners of more: 78 successful E/W bets from 208 (37.5%) yielding 232pts profit at SP (55.8% return)

 

Hope this helps you.

 

In time that's the refinement I'm after. Odds ranges, bogey jockeys or overperforming ones, ground, race types, age of horses, regular bad/good months etc. Got a bit of time off work just now so that's the next step hopefully. Some of that will depend on a full appreciation of how to interrogate horseracebase.

 

Incidentally I do believe I've got that Jefferson angle covered as a result of the Geegeez five NH to follow from the start of the season.

[Traf]

 

Incidentally I do believe I've got that Jefferson angle covered as a result of the Geegeez five NH to follow from the start of the season.

 

 

Indeed you have!

 

You've got my email address if you want to bounce some ideas around.

[Traf]

14 tracks:

Ascot, Ayr, Chepstow, Fakenham, Ffos Las,

Folkestone, Hexham, Leicester, Newcastle,

Plumpton, Taunton, Uttoxeter, Warwick, Wincanton

 

5 trainers:

KC Bailey, NB King, R Lee, R Nixon, Nick Williams

 

Heavy Ground

 

Nothing below 13/8 SP

 

44 winners from 170 in last 5 years (25.88%) : +425pts profit

81 E/W successes from 164 (49.39%) : +545pts profit.

[Traf]

14 tracks:

Ascot, Ayr, Chepstow, Fakenham, Ffos Las,

Folkestone, Hexham, Leicester, Newcastle,

Plumpton, Taunton, Uttoxeter, Warwick, Wincanton

 

5 trainers:

KC Bailey, NB King, R Lee, R Nixon, Nick Williams

 

Heavy Ground

 

Nothing below 13/8 SP

 

44 winners from 170 in last 5 years (25.88%) : +425pts profit

81 E/W successes from 164 (49.39%) : +545pts profit.

 

Politeo just won at 11/2

[Maggie Tate]

Nicky Henderson set this well on its way at Kempton today.