July 20, 200719 yr As many of you know, I have a list of horses which I back religiously. I back them to always return a set profit of ?25 per win or place and I always back both win and place, unless the win price is evens or below, then it's win only. This was my list for 2007 and the results show a profit of ?3421. If anybody wishes to back these, they do so at their own risk. If I get folk moaning about losing mioney again (like last time) I'll pull the thread again (like last time!) This was 2007's list: some of them will be removed and new ones added as time goes by. Aahgowangowan: Hasn't run since Sept 2006. According to John: 1 place from 3 races: LOSS of ?2 Afsoun: 1 win and 4 places from 6 races: PROFIT of ?108: (unplaced on 01/01 losing ?38.74) Alfresco: 4 wins and 3 places from 17 races: PROFIT OF ?141 (unpl on 18/1 -?10) All That And More: Hasn't run since Aug 2006. Aggbag: 2 places from 8 races: PROFIT OF ?8 ( won on 03/01 +?50, unpl on 18/01 -?32) Angel Voices: 1 win and 1 place from 9 races: LOSS OF ?67 (placed on 05/01 +?23, won on 09/01 +?50) Aperitif: 2 places from 9 races: LOSS OF ?15 (check next outing) Aryaamm: Hasn't run since Oct 2006 Ask: 2 wins and 1 place from 3 races: PROFIT OF ?73 Asset: 1 win and 3 places from 7 races: PROFIT OF ?22 Asudo: 1 place from 1 race: PROFIT OF ?23 At the Money: 1 win from 5 races: PROFIT OF ?9 ------------- Bahama Mama: Hasn't run since Oct 2006 Baizically: 3 places from 6 races: LOSS OF ?10 ------------- Captain General: Unplaced in all 5 races: LOSS OF ?108 (Remove from list) Captain Marvelous: Unplaced in all 4 races after the step up to Class 1: LOSS OF ?26 (Wait until the drop in class) Caradak: 1 place from 3 races: LOSS OF ?35 (Keep for now) Caressed: Hasn't run since July 2006 Cashel Mead: 1 win, 1 place from 10 races: LOSS OF ?1 Challis: 1 win, 1 place from 2 races: PROFIT OF ?63 Chantilly Beauty: Unplaced it it's only race: LOSS OF ?10 Clearly in Motion: 4 wins from 8 races: PROFIT OF ?149 Collateral Damage: 2 places from 12 races: LOSS OF ?45 (only back it over jumps from now) Commando Scott: 2 wins and 3 places from 16 races: PROFIT OF ?4 Conquest: 1 place from 6 races: LOSS OF ?17 Continent: 2 wins and 1 place from 13 races: PROFIT OF ?51 Crimson King: 1 from 2 races: PROFIT OF ?38 Cross the Line: 4 places from 10 races: PROFIT OF ?20 ---------------- Dandy Man: 1 win and 4 places from 7 races: PROFIT OF ?61 Denman: 4 wins from 4 races: PROFIT OF ?200 Dorn Dancer: 2 wins and 3 places from 16 races: PROFIT OF ?1 Duty: 2 wins and 1 place from 6 races: PROFIT OF ?87 ---------------- Echelon: 4 wins and 1 place from 6 races: PROFIT OF ?170 Estrelle: Hasn't run since July 2006 ---------------- Far from Trouble: Won it's only race: PROFIT OF ?50 Festive Chimes: 1 win and 4 places from 14 races: PROFIT OF ?72 Final Tune: 1 win and 3 places from 9 races: PROFIT OF ?42 Fire Dragon: Unplaced in all 3 races: LOSS OF ?12 Focus Group: Unplaced in both races: LOSS OF ?45 (it'll never get back to it's old form: remove from list) ---------------- Geojimali: 1 win and 2 places from 14 races: LOSS OF ?75 (Remove from List) Glenfinn Captain: 1 place from 3 races: LOSS OF ?19 ---------------- Halsion Chancer: 4 wins and 1 place from 8 races: PROFIT OF ?108 (won on 03/01 +?50) Harry Wood: 2 wins and 2 places from 7 races: PROFIT OF ?52 Hernando Royal: 1 win from 7 races: LOSS OF ?17 (pl on 14/01 +?20) Hero's Worship: Hasn't run since June 2006 His Master's Voice: 1 win and 3 places from 10 races: PROFIT OF ?25 ---------------- Iktitaf: Unplaced in all 3 races: LOSS OF ?84 (Keep for now though, class horse, just had a poor season) ---------------- John Keats: 2 wins and 5 places from 14 races: PROFIT OF ?99 ---------------- Katapult (NEW FOR 2008): (won on 18/1 +?25) Kames Park: 2 wins and 2 places from 10 races: PROFIT OF ?84 Khyber Kim: Won its only outing: PROFIT OF ?50 King's Bastion: 1 win and 3 places from 12 races: PROFIT OF ?14 Knowhere: 1 win and 1 place from 7 races: PROFIT OF ?33 ---------------- Lake Chini: 2 wins and 6 places from 15 races: PROFIT OF ?117 Landucci: 1 win and 3 places from 9 races: PROFIT OF ?52 (unpl on 05/01 -?25) Lavenham: 1 win and 3 places from 9 races: PROFIT OF ?21 Lawyer to World: 1 win and 1 place from 14 races: LOSS OF ?55 Leading Run: 4 places from 6 races: PROFIT OF ?34 (unpl on 13/01 -?4) Lightning Strike: 2 wins and a place from 7 races: PROFIT OF ?71 Lisathedaddy: 2 wins and 6 places from 12 races: PROFIT OF ?138 (unpl on 12/01 -?11) London Express: Hasn't run since August 2006 Lord Charles: Hasn't run since October 2006 Loulou Nivernais: 4 wins and a place from 7 races: PROFIT OF ?164 ---------------- Mam Ratagan: Hasn't run since December 2006 Meadow Mischief: Hasn't run since September 2006 Merlin's Dancer: 1 win and 1 place from 12 races: LOSS OF ?9 Metropolitan Man: 3 places from 6 races: PROFIT OF ?39 Minister of State: hasn't run since September 2006 Miss Mitch: 2 wins and 1 place from 4 races: PROFIT OF ?109 (unpl on 05/01 -?32) Mr. Wolf: 2 places from 8 races: LOSS OF ?58 (only back it at Pontefract from now) Mobaasher: 1 win and 2 places from 6 races: PROFIT OF ?63 Moon Over Miami (GER): 2 wins from 4 races: PROFIT OF ?8 Moonshadow: Hasn't run since November 2006 Monet's Garden: 3 wins and 1 place from 5 races: PROFIT OF ?140 Money Trix: Hasn't run since April 2006: due to reappear 16/01/2008 (won on 16/01 +?50) Motaraqeb: 1 win from 5 races: PROFIT OF ?9 (won on 13/01/08, profit of ?76) Mubaashir: Unplaced in 6 races: LOSS OF ?30 Munsef: 1 win and 4 places from 7 races: PROFIT OF ?60 ---------------- Nike Walker: 3 wins from 4 races: PROFIT OF ?140 Noland: Hasn't run since March 2006 ---------------- One Sniff: Hasn't run since November 2006 Ouija Board: Retired in December 2006 Out for a Stroll: 2 wins from 13 races: LOSS OF ?47 (one more race?) ---------------- Peopleton Brook: 1 win and 1 place from 13 races: LOSS OF ?64 (remove) Piran: Hasn't run since October 2006 Plum Pudding: 1 win from 10 races: LOSS OF ?33 (remove) Prairie Sun: Unplaced in both races: LOSS OF ?27 Pride of Nation: 2 wins and 2 places from 6 races: PROFIT OF ?98 Princess Nada: Hasn't run since November 2006 Proud Killer: 1 win and 1 place in 8 races: LOSS OF ?9 (unpl on 04/01 -?23) ---------------- Resplendent Nova: 2 wins and 5 places from 13 races: PROFIT OF ?135 Reverence (needs soft ground): 3 races, none on soft ground: no bets. Riyalma: Hasn't run since June 2006 ---------------- Satulagi: 1 place from 7 races: LOSS OF ?20 Sergeant Cecil: 1 win and 1 place from 5 races: PROFIT OF ?28 Sgt Schultz: 4 wins and 3 places from 14 races: PROFIT OF ?155 (placed on 09/01: profit of ?19) Shortest Day: Hasn't run since August 2006 Sierra Vista: 3 wins and 1 place from 9 races: PROFIT OF ?91 Sir Nod: 4 places from 7 races: PROFIT OF ?53 Sixties Icon: 1 win from 3 races: LOSS OF ?4 Song of Passion: 2 wins and a place from 7 races: PROFIT OF ?45 Stage Gift: 2 wins from 3 races: PROFIT OF ?80 Stanley Goodspeed: Hasn't Run Since September 2006 Star of Light: 1 win and 1 place from 8 races: PROFIT OF ?14 State of Play: 1 win and 1 place from 5 races: PROFIT OF ?9 Supercast (needs fast track, firm going): No qualifying races Supreme Builder: 1 win from 3 races: LOSS OF ?47 (unplaced on 16/01 for a loss of ?37): REMOVE ---------------- Tax Free: 4 wins and 4 places from 9 races: PROFIT OF ?254 Tears of a Clown: 1 win and 2 places from 4 races: PROFIT OF ?67 Turko: 2 wins and a place from 6 races: PROFIT OF ?65 Trojan Flight: 1 win and 3 places from 7 races: PROFIT OF ?66 ---------------- Violet park (needs give in the ground): Hasn't run since June 2006 Voy Por Ustedes: 2 wins and 2 places from 5 races: PROFIT OF ?50 ---------------- Watamu: 1 win and 1 place from 3 races: PROFIT OF ?31 Which Pocket: 2 wins and 4 places from 10 races: PROFIT OF ?132 Wi Dud: 2 places from 6 races: PROFIT OF ?17 Wrecking Crew: Hasn't run since June 2006 Edited June 21, 200818 yr by Traf Removal of Baizically
July 23, 200719 yr Author Not ripping up trees yet, but performing better than expected so far today.
July 23, 200719 yr Dorn Dancer wins at 7/2. I've gone for e/w doubles from your four, Traf, so thanks in advance for when King's Bastion does the business. I hope that Stan James are paying out for John Keats fourth place...
July 23, 200719 yr Author SJ are paying 1/4 odds for 1st 4 home in the 2.45, as it's a handicap with 16 runners.
July 23, 200719 yr Author King's Bastion was p?ss poor, I'm afraid. I'd have been happy with 2 places today, a win and a place at best. I got the win and place, but not exactly how I expected it. It's still a profit on the day. 3 run tomorrow, I think: I'll post them up later with what I expect from them. Edited July 23, 200719 yr by Traf
July 23, 200719 yr Author Tuesday's Runners Yarmouth 3.00: Lawyer to World: might scrape a place. 4.30: Both Resplendent Nova and Capistrano feature here: Capistrano is out of his depth in this one, Nova is good for a place, it may even win.
July 24, 200719 yr Traf, Do you back them all win and place ? To the same stakes ? Last year you ran a totaliser that showed how much profit.
July 24, 200719 yr Author Traf, Do you back them all win and place ? To the same stakes ? Last year you ran a totaliser that showed how much profit. I did do a running total last year, but I was doing the horses full time from home and was able to sit and calculate different stakes for each horse, depending on the prices available. Now I'm back in semi-full time employment, if I'm at work I have to just use a bookies and back them each way. If I'm at home: I do win and place. Backing them all win and place to a level stake should still see a profit. Alternatively, back them so that the return from a winning bet is always the same figure: that's how I did it last year if you remember, I always backed them to return ?25 profit. ie ?5 on a 5/1, but ?12.50 on a 2/1. (I know you know how to work that out, but some might not have got what I meant.) I think adjusting the stake is the best way personally, but a losing run can be expensive. PS The value of your investment could decrease in value and your home may be at risk if you set fire to it.
July 24, 200719 yr Author Tuesday's Runners Yarmouth 3.00: Lawyer to World: might scrape a place. 4.30: Both Resplendent Nova and Capistrano feature here: Capistrano is out of his depth in this one, Nova is good for a place, it may even win. Lawyer to World went from 20.0 to 70.0 in the 10 mins before the race and traded at 9.0 just for a place. I didn't see the race, but something must have been awry for a horse to drift so badly in the betting. (Went from 20/1 to 33/1 at bookies). Needless to say: it wasn't placed and finished 10th of 13. It was also ridden by a woman.
July 24, 200719 yr Author Monday's Runners: Ayr: 2.45: JOHN KEATS: I expect this to finish around halfway, but might get in the top 6. Result! Got placed at 3.3 on Betfair! (4th @ 15/2) 3.15: INSUBORDINATE: I'd be surprised if this beats 3 horses home. Well, what do you know? Finished 9th of 12, beating 3 other horses home! 3.45: DORN DANCER: Good chance of being placed. Won at 7/2, backed in from 9/2 Windsor 7.50: KING'S BASTION: Good chance of winning, should get placed. P?ss poor: 8th of 9 after being backed in from 15/2 to 11/2 Staked ?2.96 on John Keats to win @ 9.9: no return Staked ?11.44 on John Keats to be placed at 3.3: returned ?36.44 after commission. Staked ?1.00 (min bet on Betdaq) on Insubordinate to win @ 34.0: no return Staked ?3.37 on Insubordinate @ 8.8: no return Staked ?5.22 on Dorn Dancer to win @ 6.05: returned ?30.26 Staked ?19.65 on Dorn Dancer to be placed @ 2.34: returned ?44.66 Staked ?4.28 on King's Bastion to win @ 7.15: no return Staked ?16.25 on King's Bastion to be placed @ 2.62: no return Day 1 result 8 bets 3 winning bets Strike rate 37.5% Staked: ?64.17 Return: ?111.36 Profit: ? 47.19 ( 73.5% ) Edited July 24, 200719 yr by Traf
July 24, 200719 yr Author Resplendant Nova was a decent winner at 7/2 fav Thanks No problem: opened at 9/2. I got 5.6 on betfair for the win and 1.99 for a place.
July 24, 200719 yr Author Tuesday's Runners Yarmouth 3.00: Lawyer to World: might scrape a place. 4.30: Both Resplendent Nova and Capistrano feature here: Capistrano is out of his depth in this one, Nova is good for a place, it may even win. Lawyer to World was very poor: I staked ?1 @ 70 to win and ?3.29 @ 9.0 for a place: no return Resplendent Nova won as I thought it might: staked ?5.73 @ 5.6 to win: returned ?30.77 and staked ?26.59 @ 1.99 for a place: returned ?51.60 Capistrano was indeed out of its depth, but only cost me ?3.13 @ 9.4 for a place: no return Day 2 results ( and running totals ) 5 bets ( 13) 2 wins ( 5) Strike: 40% ( 38.5%) Staked: ?39.74 ( ?103.91 ) Returns: ?82.37 ( ?193.73) Profit ?42.63 (107.3%): ?89.82 (86.4%) It's looking good, but it's early days of this better weather, which I need for the horses to run well.
July 24, 200719 yr missed first one ?10 on nova ?4 eway on capistrano ?1 rfc them two stake ?20 return?50 as took 4/1 profit = 30 or 150%
July 24, 200719 yr Author Just the one runner tomorrow, I think. Lake Chini is due to run: I'll updateonce it's confirmed in the morning.
July 25, 200719 yr Author Lake Chini goes in the 4.20 at Catterick. Win and place on this: has a decent chance.
July 25, 200719 yr Author Lake Chini goes in the 4.20 at Catterick. Win and place on this: has a decent chance. No good! 7th of 13, I'm afraid. Staked ?3.21 on the win and ?13.71 on a place: no returns. Day 3 results ( and cumulative) 2 bets (15) 0 winners (5) Strike rate 0% (33.33%) Stake: ?16.92 (?120.83) Returns: ?0.00 (?193.73) Profit: LOSS of ?16.92: ?72.90 up overall ( 60.33%)
July 25, 200719 yr Author not a great day... but onwards and upwards. anything for tomorrow? 4 declared for tomorrow: Tears of a Clown 4.30 Sandown Spirit Rising 6.10 Folkestone Kerry's Dream 6.30 York Pride of Nation 7.30 York I'll write up their chances in the morning once I know who is and isn't running.
July 26, 200719 yr Author Thursday's Runners Tears of a Clown 4.30 Sandown: decent enough chances for this one: I'll back win and place. Spirit Rising 6.10 Folkestone: little chance of any success here. Kerry's Dream 6.30 York: little chance of any success here. Pride of Nation 7.30 York: good chance here: great horse. Win and place again.
July 26, 200719 yr Thursday's Runners Tears of a Clown 4.30 Sandown: decent enough chances for this one: I'll back win and place. non runner Spirit Rising 6.10 Folkestone: little chance of any success here. 40/1 on price guid Kerry's Dream 6.30 York: little chance of any success here. 28/1 on price guide Pride of Nation 7.30 York: good chance here: great horse. Win and place again. 11/4 on guide.
July 26, 200719 yr Author Spirit Rising is currently 66/1 Kerry's Dream is 50/1 Pride of Nation is 3/1
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