January 16, 201313 yr Fnarr, fnarr! Anyway to follow on from the general discussion re: laying on betfair : http://www.wanderers...ing-on-betfair/ I proposed we trial laying favorites under certain conditions. I'd expect a strike rate of around 73-77% for this from around 4-5 bets per day maximum, any lower strike rate than that and we'll struggle. 2013 results so far: 1/1/13: 2 losing bets from 8 @ 4.5, 2.88 6/8 : +0.32pts 2/1/13: 3 losing bets from 9 @ 2.27, 4.53, 2.40 = -0.5pts 12/17 : -0.18pts 3/1/13: 0 losing bets from 4 = +3.8pts 16/21 : +3.82pts 4/1/13: 1 losing bet from 3 @ 3.61 = -0.71pts 18/24 : +3.09pts 5/1/13: 1 losing bet from 5 @ 2.17 = +2.63pts 22/29 : +5.72pts 6/1/13: No Bets 7/1/13: 1 losing bet from 4 @ 2.66 = +1.19pts 25/33 : +6.91pts 8/1/13: 3 losing bets from 5 @ 2.70, 3.32, 2.64 = -3.76pts 27/38 : +3.15pts 9/1/13: 1 losing bet from 7 @ 2.97 = +4.00pts 33/45 : +7.15pts 10/1/13: 1 losing bet from 5 @ 3.00 = +1.80pts 37/50 : +8.95pts 11/1/13: 1 losing bet from 4 @ 3.01 = +0.84pts 40/54 : +9.79pts 12/1/13: 2 losing bets from 6 @ 3.66, 2.64 = -0.50pts 44/60 : +9.29pts 13/1/13: 0 losing bets from 2 = +1.90pts 46/62 : +11.19pts 14/1/13: No Bets 15/1/13: 0 losing bets from 3 = +2.85pts 49/65 : +14.04pts So, we've already got 13 betting days and a strike rate of 75.38% and a profit of 1.08pts per day. It's not massive, but it's a start and if sustainable could be a nice little earner over the year. 16/01/13 2.25 Newbury : Mountainous 2nd at 4/1 5.15 Kempton: Whispering Warrior won at 2.1 6.15 Kempton: Wildomar 2nd at 9/4 6.45 Kempton: Seemenomore 4th at 7/4 3/4 today = +1.75pts or +£17.50 at £10 per point. 52/69 (75.36%) : +£157.90 at £10/point Edited January 31, 201313 yr by Traf
January 16, 201313 yr traf, just to clarify this.... ~ 1/1/13 2 losing bets from 8? this means 2 favourites won from 8 races and they were 4.5 and 2.88pts on betfair? ~ Your upper limit of 4/1 is 5pts on betfair? ~ when you say strike rate do you mean that you expect 73 to 77% of favourites to lose?
January 16, 201313 yr Author 1. yes 2/8 that fitted the criteria actually went on to win. 2. 4/1 SP can actually be as high as 5.5 on betfair, but yes. 3. yes, I expect around 75% of these favourites to get beat. 67% or so of all favs lose anyway, we're just refining slightly. We could even narrow it further to certain trainers/ certain months etc, but that will vastly reduce the number of bets and with a laying service you need a good number to make it worth bothering with.
January 18, 201313 yr Author 18/01/13 2.25 Chepstow: Scholastica 3.00 Chepstow: Salut Honore 3.35 Chepstow: Kap West
January 18, 201313 yr Author Good man Traf - is the meeting likely to be called off with the weather? Yes.
January 18, 201313 yr Traf - Another thing I forgot to mention. Betfair odds are obviously up and down like the proverbial brides nightie. Presumably you basing this on the SP. If you were actually trying to follow this up with cash how do you decide when to stick your wodge on? Might not be an answer to that but I`m interested in an expert opinion. I`m good with numbers but I know fack all about Horses
January 18, 201313 yr Author When proofing, we always declare to betfair SP, and if I was putting real cash on them, I'd use a betting bot to place my bet at 5 seconds before the scheduled off time. There are fluctuations in price, of course, but as long as you are consistent with the timing of your bets, it evens itself out in the end.
January 19, 201313 yr Author 19/01/13 Lay all clear favs at Kempton (except the 4.05 race), providing they are 4/1 or less just before the off.
January 19, 201313 yr I have done 2 races at kemp today and laid the favs and both bets have come in, cheers Traf, top notch info
January 19, 201313 yr Author 19/01/13 Lay all clear favs at Kempton (except the 4.05 race), providing they are 4/1 or less just before the off. 1.45: Glastonbury 5th of 7 @ 15/8 2.20: Haftohaf 4/7 @ 2/1 2.55: Fluctuate 4/7 @ 7/4 3.30: Rogue Reporter 9/10 @ 7/2 4.35: Valdaw won at 10/11 (Betfair SP 2.31) 5.05: Ryedale Dancer 4/8 @ 3/1 5/6 for us today and +3.44pts = £34.40 January: 57/75 (76.00%) : +£192.30 at £10/point
January 19, 201313 yr Author 20/01/13 Lay all clear favs at Kempton (except the 4.25 race), providing they are 4/1 or less just before the off.
January 23, 201313 yr Author 23/01/13 Fingers Crossed, we'll try again! Ayr (inspection @ 0730): 2.40: Top Wood 2nd at 8/11 3.10: No Clear Fav 3.40: Forestside unplaced at 9/2 : No Bet (odds too high) Kempton (inspection @ 1000): 5.30: Vitznau 4th at 2/1 6.00: Leitrim King 5th at 9/4 6.30: Taxiformissbyron won at 9/4 (BFSP 3.40) Booooooooo! 7.00: Foxtrot Jubilee won at 2/11 (BFSP 1.24) No surprises there in a 2 horse race! I wouldn't have laid this one, but for the record's sake, I'll include the loss! 7.30: Sweet Liberta 3rd at 5/2 8.00: First Rebellion 6th at 5/2 Edited January 23, 201313 yr by Traf
January 23, 201313 yr Author 24/01/13 Lay all clear favs at Kempton (except the 5.05 & 5.35 races), providing they are 4/1 or less just before the off.
January 24, 201313 yr Author 24/01/13 Lay all clear favs at Kempton (except the 5.05 & 5.35 races), providing they are 4/1 or less just before the off. 4.00: No clear fav 4.35: Pastoral Jet : 2nd at 7/4 : D 6.05: Honourable Knight: 10th at 7/2 6.35: English Summer : won at 2.67 Booooo! (only 4 ran) 7.05: Kakatosi: 5th at 11/4 7.35: Baby Dottiie : 2nd at 5/2 4/5 today : +2.13pts = +£23.13 January: 66/87 (75.86%) : +£236.53 at £10/point The one that let me down today was another small field (just 4 ran), I'm going to see if imposing a 5 or 6 runner minimum rule would help. Edited January 24, 201313 yr by Traf
January 25, 201313 yr Author I'm going to see if imposing a 5 or 6 runner minimum rule would help. It doesn't make any difference really. 6 less bets and 0.17pts more profit.
January 28, 201313 yr Author Indeed, let's hope it continues. 28/01/13 Lay all clear favs at Kempton (except the 2.20 race), providing they are 4/1 or less just before the off.
January 28, 201313 yr Author 1.20: Derwentwater : 2nd at 5/4 1.50: Hurricane Spirit : 3rd at 7/2 2.50: Roman Senate : unplaced at 5/1 (NO BET) 3.20: Evergreen Forest : 2nd at 2/1 3.50: Great Ormond : unplaced at 2/1 4.20: Wildomar : unplaced at 9/4 4.50: Fairyinthewind : unplaced at 9/4 Boooooom! A full house! 6/6 today : +5.7pts = +£57.00 January: 72/93 (77.42%) : +£293.53 at £10/point
January 30, 201313 yr Author 30/01/13 @ Kempton 5.20: On The Hoof : 3rd at 9/4 5.50: Michael's Nook : 5th at 5/2 6.20: Litmus : won at 5/1= NO BET 6.50: Holding Fast : 6th at 7/4 7.20: Haaf A Sixpence : 4th at 5/2 7.50: Prophets Pride : won at 8/11 (BFSP 1.94) This was only a 3-runner race, but the liabilty is low. 4/5 today : +2.86pts = +£28.60 January: 76/98 (77.55%) : +£322.13 at £10/point No action for us tomorrow, so that's it for the month.
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