i have a pal who plays bookie on betfair and makes a fortune.

 

i had a wee go a few months back and I got wiped out quite quickly.

 

i initially showed a decent profit (about 20% over 4 days) but my whole pot was wiped out on one bad day.

 

i was trying to lay off favourites at first.

then i switched to lay off 2nd & 3rd favourites

 

any thoughts on lay betting traf?

Edited January 16, 201313 yr by derek smalls

Lay betting can be as profitable as betting to win, if you know what you're doing and I'm not patronising you here.

 

When laying horses, your liabilities are so uch higher, I'd personally not want to lay above 5.0 (4/1) and preferably below that.

 

If you wanted to lay favourites:

 

You could always lay the favourites below 4/1 at the following tracks:

Ayr Bellewstown Cheltenham Chepstow Cork Doncaster Down Royal Downpatrick Dundalk Fakenham Ffos Las Goodwood Gowran Park Kelso Kempton Musselburgh Naas Navan Newbury Newmarket (July) Nottingham Roscommon Salisbury Sandown Sedgefield Sligo Stratford Tramore Uttoxeter Wetherby Wexford Worcester Yarmouth York

 

If you backed all the 4/1 or under favs in handicap races at those tracks (Class 1 to 6 races), you'd have lost 19% of your stakes in 2011 & 2012.

So, there's a possible angle there: average of 5 bets per day.

 

If you want, we can run a bit of a trial here?

any idiot can pick short priced winners......

 

 

 

...sorry, wrong thread

any idiot can pick short priced winners......

 

 

 

...sorry, wrong thread

 

Any thread, mate.

Any thread

OK, so today's possibles would be:

 

2.25 Newbury : Mountainous 2nd at 4/1

5.15 Kempton: Whispering Warrior

6.15 Kempton: Wildomar

6.45 Kempton: Seemenomore

 

and I'll do some more back-testing if anyone's interested.

Edited January 16, 201313 yr by Traf

I'll do some more back-testing if anyone's interested.

 

you fucking pervert

i`m interested, i`m always interested in a system that makes money

the way I did it previously was to put up £20 on each race. i started by just laying the favourite but in the end i was spreading it across 2 or 3 runners.

not sure if thats the way

i`m interested, i`m always interested in a system that makes money

 

No worries, so am I. (But only legal ones nowadays!)

 

I'll collate the results from 2013 so far and I'll start a new thread for the trial and we can see how it goes before we start putting money down.

I never advocate putting any money down until there's at least 150 bets to look at, but those results from 2011/12 are from 3514 bets!

the way I did it previously was to put up £20 on each race. i started by just laying the favourite but in the end i was spreading it across 2 or 3 runners.

not sure if thats the way

 

You're just increasing your risk that way.

I'm all ears, everyday is a school day in this section of the site

 

P.S. ive not a clue about lay bettings, so i'll have a full run through please Gents

Edited January 16, 201313 yr by bwfcryan86

Bring it on Traf, be interesting to see how this pans out.

I've opened a new thread on it, but laying is basically betting that a horse won't win.

 

So, in its most basic form if a horse is 2/1 to win, it'll be 1/2 not to win.

 

2/1 would generally be around 3.2 on betfair and the lay would then price up at 3.22 or slightly higher.

 

So if you backed it at 3.2 and it won, you make 2.2pts less 5% commission = 2.09pts ie slightly higher than the 2/1 SP

If you laid it and it won, you'd lose 2.22pts. If it lost you'd make 1pt less commission = 0.95pts.

Bring it on Traf, be interesting to see how this pans out.

 

http://www.wanderersways.com/forum/topic/76198-wanderersways-favourite-lays/ , mate

trying not to clog the other thread up so I`ll post this here.

 

would you base this experiment on

 

~a fixed amount being made available on each race of say £20 with a varying winning return or

 

~ a fixed winning return of say £5 with a varying stake?

trying not to clog the other thread up so I`ll post this here.

 

would you base this experiment on

 

~a fixed amount being made available on each race of say £20 with a varying winning return or

 

~ a fixed winning return of say £5 with a varying stake?

 

I always prefer the latter, but fixed liability can work too.

Let's run them side by side and see how they fare.

Got a few days back home so I will be joining in on this........and there you go I have jinxed you all now