Garrp Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/ascot-gold-cup/winner Altano 25/1 Each Way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Horwich Posted June 17, 2013 Moderators Share Posted June 17, 2013 Iamin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 There are 30 races at Royal Ascot: 21 non-handicaps and just nine handicaps. Royal Ascot Handicap Stats The average number of runners in Royal Ascot handicaps between 2008 and 2012 was 21.6. This already makes it hard to find a winner! The average win odds in Royal Ascot handicaps between 2008 and 2012 was 12.68/1. The highest was 66/1 Cosmic Sun (King George V Stakes, 2009), while the lowest was Rainbow Peak at 13/8 (Wolferton Handicap, 2010). The average win odds in Royal Ascot handicaps between 2008 and 2012 was 9/1, which by ruling odd some longshots should make life easier. In fact, 31 of the 45 handicap winners were priced at 12/1 or shorter. Only one horse aged older than six was a winner. And only five horses older than five have won. There were 96 horses aged older than six: one won. There were 215 older than five: five won. Nine clear favourites have won Royal Ascot handicaps since 2008, and they recorded a level stakes profit. From the 40 horses to be sent off clear favourite, nine won, recording a 7.63 unit profit. Simple Royal Ascot handicap system Based on the above, backing horses aged three or four, and priced at 12/1 or shorter would have won you 24 of the 45 handicaps (53%). This gives a small level stakes profit of 5.13 points at SP. Focusing on those which finished in the first three last time out would reduce the number of bets while still winning 21 of the 45 handicaps (47%), and returned a profit of 34.13 units at level stakes. Therefore in Royal Ascot handicaps, back 3 or 4yo’s priced 12/1 or shorter, which placed 1-2-3 last time out. Royal Ascot Non-handicap Stats The average number of runners in Royal Ascot non-handicap races between 2008 and 2012 was 13.5. That’s around eight less runners on average than the handicap races. The average win odds in Royal Ascot non-handicap races between 2008 and 2012 were 8.05/1. Flashman’s Papers memorably won the Windsor Castle Stakes at 100/1, and even more memorably the great Frankel was 1/10 when winning the Queen Anne Stakes last year. They were the highs and lows in odds terms. The average win odds in Royal Ascot non-handicaps between 2008 and 2012 was 9/2. Out of the 105 races, 53 of them returned a winner priced at 9/2 or shorter. 89 of the 105 winners (85%) returned at 12/1 or shorter. Ten Royal Ascot non-handicap winners since 2008 were aged six or higher. But, of those ten, six of them ran in one of the staying races: three each in the Gold Cup and the Queen Alexandra Stakes. At distances of less than two miles, just four horses older than five have won. Favourites and joint-favourites have won 42 of the 105 Royal Ascot non-handicaps since 2008. That’s a 40% win rate and has shown a profit of 19.38 units for level stakes backing. Simple Royal Ascot non-handicap system Taking the best of the above leads to horses aged five or less, which were sent off as market leader, or joint market leader. This group of 99 bets has returned 38 wins (38.38%) and a profit to level stakes of 23.53 units. Paraphrased from an article we've published at http://www.geegeez.co.uk/royal-ascot-notes-handicaps-vs-non-handicaps/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 (edited) From the above stats, we've seen that most Royal Ascot winners were priced at 12/1 or less. We also discovered that most Royal Ascot winners were young horses. With that in mind, if we set the parameters for any research to 12/1 or less and horses aged four or younger. One trainer stands head and shoulders above the others: John Gosden. His overall record since 2006 is a 25% win rate, 50% place race, and a profit at SP of 40.58 units. 13 winners and 13 others placed from 52 runners for a profit equivalent to 78% of your stakes. If that wasn’t impressive enough, what really catches the eye is the consistency of this performance. 2006: 1 win and 1 place from 6 (16.66% winners, 33.33% placed), Profit/Loss: +1pt = 16.67% of stakes 2007: 2 wins and 3 place from 7 (28.57% winners, 57.14% placed), Profit/Loss: +7pts = 100.00% of stakes 2008: 1 win and 6 place from 9 (11.11% winners, 77.77% placed), Profit/Loss: -4.67pts = 51.89% of stakes 2009: 1 win and 1 place from 6 (16.66% winners, 33.33% placed), Profit/Loss: +3pts = 50.00% of stakes 2010: 1 win and 0 place from 4 (25.00% winners, 25.00% placed), Profit/Loss: -0.75pts = 18.75% of stakes 2011: 2 wins and 1 place from 9 (22.22% winners, 33.33% placed), Profit/Loss: +7.75pts = 86.11% of stakes 2012: 5 wins and 2 place from 11 (45.45% winners, 63.63% placed), Profit/Loss: +27.25pts = 247.73% of stakes Edited June 17, 2013 by Traf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Bolty, If you're watching/reading... tell me about Sea Siren, who runs in the Diamond Jubilee. I'm on at 18/1 E/W and I think I've a chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Also, 5f: GB bred runners priced up to 5/1 USA bred runners no bigger than 13/2 6f/7f: USA bred runners with an SP up to 12/1 1m: Irish bred runners no bigger than 4/1 1m2f/1m4f: GB bred runners priced up to 5/1 Over the last 8 seasons this produced the following figures... Bets Wins Win Strike SP_PL Win and Places Place Strike 42 winners from 138 = 30.43% 29 others placed Profit at SP of 59.6pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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