March 24, 201016 yr Author can somebody paste his lincoln thoughts , i cant get on it for some reason .
March 24, 201016 yr next stage is to wait for the draw....there isnt a horse that I have a strong opinion on but I feel that the 2 strongest trend picks would appear to be MULL OF KILLOUGH at around 14/1 and TARTAN GUNNA at around 33/1 who fails on the won last time and won in last 3 but the trainer played around with the trip on those runs so I am willing to excuse the runs...one of the runs at ascot it was comfortably clear of the other 3...3 year olds in the race despite being beaten by the older horses...has had a nice run on the all weather recently so will be fit......if either or both are drawn on the low side of the draw then I will be betting.
March 26, 201016 yr fri 26th paint the town red kemp 8.20 was wolverhampton 8.10 and its still running
March 27, 201016 yr Saturdays Nags from Happyclaret First day of the flat season at last. not a day for going mad in general but a race or two of interest. 2 00 DONC....SOHCAHTOA...EW BET @ BEST MORNING ODDS 20/1 PLUS. ran all last season in higher grade than most of this field and subsequently has dropped a few pounds...potentially nicely drawn in 10. started last season off by splitting spring of fame ( listed horse ) and mastery ( st leger winner )...next run was beaten 5.5 lengths in a listed race and 3rd run was beaten in a handicap off a mark of 100. Today it is rated 83 and as a horse who went well fresh last year and is from a top southern yard who could have their horses more forward than the northern yards is interesting at decent odds. 2 20 KEMP....TIDDLIWINKS too short for me to bet but for those who like doubles and trebles or perhaps have a free 25 quid bet for opening a new bookies account, this is my idea of the best short priced horse of the day.....most horses in this race dont appear to have their optimum conditions. 2 35 DONC....DAMIEN EW BET @ 14/1 PLUS......PRIME DEFENDER EW BET 14/1 PLUS...BOTH BEST MORNING GUARANTEED ODDS Prime defender won this race last year before being highly tried all season....Michael Hills riding the horse all season for his father Barry Hills. Michael Hills takes the ride on Damien today who is a younger, potential improver so I think the switch could be significant....I have negatives over most runners in this field and feel that these 2 are generously priced. 3 10 LINCOLN HANDICAP...MULL OF KILLOUGH EW BET @ 12/1.....EXTRATERRESTRIAL EW BET @ 16/1 see lincoln thread for reasons. 3 40 DONC.....MAYHAB EW BET @ BEST MORNING ODDS 8/1 PLUS. this race usually strongly favours high drawn horses....this horse is speedily bred on the sire and dam side of the pedigree....many in the race are from middle distance type sires. the likely fav for the race is SQUIRES GATE but the sire namid is only 4.4% with 2yo debutants. 4 00 KEMP....UNKNOWN REBEL EW BET 7/1 PLUS 5F races for juveniles at Kempton last season showed a massive bias to high drawn horses....perhaps the stronges bias I have seen....the winner rarely comes from more than 4 off the rail....3 of the 5 highest drawn horses are huge prices on betfair and the other one JIBOUTI is bred by EXCEED AND EXCEL who only win around 5% of the time with juvenile debutants which rises to an impressive 28% on their 2nd run. UNKNOWN REBEL is bred to be speedy and well drawn so is the bet.....
April 1, 201016 yr Author can somebody paste any selections for today or weekend he has posted - (cant get on it )
April 5, 201016 yr Happys Monday predictions: did all this work Sunday evening and prices shown are based on betfair prices at the time. 1 45 YAR...CLOCKMAKER...LAY@ 2.1 lots of unexposed horses from big yards in this race and I just feel that no horse in this field should be less than 5/2. not a cant win but happy to lay at a very skinny price. 2 35 RED 3 EW BETS UNAWATUNA 13/2 victor chandler guaranteed DELORIAN 16/1 v c DROP THE HAMMER 14/1 v c may seem excessive at first glance but this race could/should be dominated by the horses drawn in the low numbers. Of the 16 races over 2 miles at the course, 15 of the races have been won by horses drawn 7 or less. If the general public were aware of this then the 3 bets would be a lot shorter in the betting. The horses above would appear to have conditions to suit and are well drawn. There are exactly 16 runners at the moment and anyone playing on betfair will get first 4 as the place terms, even if there are none runners. I have had 2 points ew @ 13/2 and 1 point ew on the other 2 with victor chandler. 3 25 YAR... PIPERS PIPING EW BET @ 17/2 guaranteed v c negatives over most of the fancied runners. This one is another horse that is fit from the all weather and looks good value. had several other races lined up at warwick including gentle guru in the 1 45 which was going to be my nap...so really miffed that that meeting has gone......will update later after reviewing the markets.
April 9, 201016 yr Friday racing ... 2 00 aint Escortmen....bet @ 3.9 plus was hugely impressive last time and this is a horse I have been waiting for. 3 10 aint Kalahari King....ew bet @ 4.8 and 2 the place on betfair very impressive winner at Doncaster on seasonal debut and wasnt at peak fitness....big task last time in the Queen Mother but ran well.....this 2m 4f looks more suitable and it won on its sole start at the course....a very consistent horse so appeals each way. possibly update later on.
April 9, 201016 yr Friday racing ... 2 00 aint Escortmen....bet @ 3.9 plus was hugely impressive last time and this is a horse I have been waiting for. drifted like a barge before the off and never in it
April 9, 201016 yr drifted like a barge before the off and never in it yeah pal we all still waiting its still running !!!
April 9, 201016 yr Not followed him since Cheltenham. How's he done? not very well to be honest, but better than any tips ive ever been given. He makes quite a few quid on Betfair but thats just foreign to me
April 10, 201016 yr Saturday racing ... 1 30 chep Hucking hero.lay.220 @ 2.7 bet onemoreandstay.50 @ 14 plus Hucking hero is from a very poor sire and is giving weight to the majority of the field....the trainer at the course is only 1 from 42 and 0 from 20 in this type of race at the course. onemoreandstay was tenderly ridden on debut and the same jockey takes the ride today...looks good value at the price. 2 15 Aintree...Noble Alan 70 win @ 10..40 place @ 3.3 looks to have the ideal trip and ground and will be fresher than most of the field who ran at chelt. 5 30 Wolves..Wibbadune 50 win @ 18 and 15 place @ 4.7 many negatives over most of field...the only negative for this is that it is not guaranteed to be fit on seasonal debut....however a chance worth taking at the price as this horse likes the poly track and sprinters tend need less training after a lay off than horses that run at longer trips..is well drawn and well handicapped. 6 00 Wolves..Ride a white swan..50 win @ 5.9..45 place @ 2.2 won over course and distance from the 12 box 2 runs ago which is a poor draw..unlucky in running last time or would have gone close to winning and is still on a good handicap mark. PLEASE DONT BACK THE 2 TONIGHT UNTIL NEARER THE OFF AS THE MARKET IS VERY WEAK AT THE MOMENT AND YOU WILL GET A BETTER PRICE LATER.
April 11, 201016 yr Well he paid for my day out yesterday, 1st and 3rd in the National and Ride A White Swan at Wolverhampton
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