Manny Road North Posted December 28, 2012 Posted December 28, 2012 Traf Whats your view on the outcome of todays battle with Sir Des Champs and Flemenstar ?? Do you think that the extra distance will favour Sir Des champs ?? and he gain his revenge from punchestown Quote
Traf Posted December 28, 2012 Posted December 28, 2012 Hmmm, tough one. Without sounding too vague, here goes: Flemenstar is the best horse in the race by a country mile and the measly best price of 7/4 reflects this. I can't back him at that price, because he's ner run further than 2.5miles before and this is a 3 mile contest. Sir Des Champs, however, has a victory to his name at 3m 1f on heavy ground, so will get both the trip and the ground. He also didn't get hammered in his defeat to Flemenstar 3 weeks ago and represents a better value bet at 9/4, but even that's stingy. If Flemenstar gets the trip, he wins IMO. It's not a race I'd want to put too much money on, but the forecast for Flemenstar to beat SDC is 5/1 at Bet365 and for SDC to beat Flemenstar is 5.7/1, so that might be the way forward for those undecided between the two, because they should by rights be the first two home. Personally, I'd like to see them take each other on and both get beat by Tidal Bay at 5/1 Not sure if this is any help to you at all, but it promises to be a fascinating contest. Quote
Traf Posted December 28, 2012 Posted December 28, 2012 PS The money is coming in for SDC. It is now 9/4 from 11/4, whilst Flem has gone from 6/4 to 7/4 These don't sound like major changes, but Flem has drifted by 16.7% and SDC has shortened by 18.2% Quote
Manny Road North Posted December 28, 2012 Author Posted December 28, 2012 Nice one thanks for your views The only time i have not backed SDC was last time out i took 11/4 early doors with 365 BOG but i have not weighed in on this, I cannot wait to watch it. Await good day at Leopardstown on ATR today. Anymore views on that card would be appreciated thanks Quote
L/H White Posted December 28, 2012 Posted December 28, 2012 Anymore selections for this card today Traf? I've plucked a L15 out for the first 4 races, using the money I won yesterday. Mainly due to backing Cairin on the nose :-) Quote
Traf Posted December 28, 2012 Posted December 28, 2012 I've not backed any here to be honest and i've not had a proper look at the card yet, but if pushed I'd ignore the fav in the opener, because there's no value at 5/4 and look at either Mala Beach or Thunder & Roses. I'll have a look at the rest of the card now. Quote
Manny Road North Posted December 28, 2012 Author Posted December 28, 2012 Hope you right on Mala beach !! Quote
Traf Posted December 28, 2012 Posted December 28, 2012 12.55: Can't see beyond the first three in the market: Grange, Doc Hollywood and Treat Yourself and I wouldn't be too surprised in they finished in that order. My outsider would be Spot Fine at 14/1. 1.25: As above, but with Zaidpour, Monksland, Voler La Vedette My outsider would be Weapons Amnesty at 16/1 1.55: Pires for me here and at 6/1, you could afford to go E/W. Don't Tell Pa is of interest as an E/W punt at 14/1 2.25: 11/8 or thereabouts is far too short for me about the fav Back In Focus, so i'd take Dedigout at 100/30 There's a couple of longer shots that could go well here: Aupcharlie at 9/1 and The Westener Boy at 25's. 3.00: we've done earlier. 3.35 is the bumper and who knows what will happen. The generl rule of Irish bumpers is if you don't know which to back, go with the Mullins horse. He has Bally Longford here. Quote
Traf Posted December 28, 2012 Posted December 28, 2012 Midnight chase to place for me He'll definitely get the ground and the trip and he's a massive price, so why not? Quote
Traf Posted December 28, 2012 Posted December 28, 2012 Hmmm, tough one. Without sounding too vague, here goes: Flemenstar is the best horse in the race by a country mile and the measly best price of 7/4 reflects this. I can't back him at that price, because he's ner run further than 2.5miles before and this is a 3 mile contest. Sir Des Champs, however, has a victory to his name at 3m 1f on heavy ground, so will get both the trip and the ground. He also didn't get hammered in his defeat to Flemenstar 3 weeks ago and represents a better value bet at 9/4, but even that's stingy. If Flemenstar gets the trip, he wins IMO. It's not a race I'd want to put too much money on, but the forecast for Flemenstar to beat SDC is 5/1 at Bet365 and for SDC to beat Flemenstar is 5.7/1, so that might be the way forward for those undecided between the two, because they should by rights be the first two home. Personally, I'd like to see them take each other on and both get beat by Tidal Bay at 5/1 Not sure if this is any help to you at all, but it promises to be a fascinating contest. Well, Flemenstar didn't get the trip after all. He completely bottomed out after the last fence and was running on fumes. SDC travelled poorly and was too far off the pace to land a telling blow late on, whilst Tidal Bay took advantage of the battle upfront and got home courtesy of another brilliant ride by Ruby. Happy enough with the 5/1 win. Quote
Manny Road North Posted December 28, 2012 Author Posted December 28, 2012 well done Traf good call SDC did not help himself with the jumping and that result will only shorten up bobs worth for chelternham Well called on Tidal Bay tomorrows another day for me Quote
Traf Posted December 28, 2012 Posted December 28, 2012 In fairness, Paul Nicholls was very bullish about TB last week. Possibly looking at the World Hurdle now, whilst Flem will drop back in trip. Quote
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