I know what the winner will be, i have spent ages looking at forums with postings from people who know alot about racing compared to me and you.

 

i will post the winner at 12 noon tomorrow

 

price will be around 20/1

 

horwich vvvitk

 

ps, just putting it on here so people see it, i'll delete or move it later.

innox???

Camilla

I was under the impression 'Hedgehunter' was going to win The National

YOUR WRONG

THE HORSE IS NOW 25/1

 

The big layers have upped the price on it

There is a few at 25 - 1 now,

 

Lord Atterbury

Just in Debt

Double Honour

 

One of them?

 

Shit, Innox has gone down to 20's now, was at 25's!

 

Got money each way on Innox and Jakiri.

22/1 on betfair

Who is? The Horse you reckon will win?

It takes time?

4.10 JOHN SMITH'S GRAND NATIONAL

 

 

 

Those of you who have read the ante-post guide in the Aintree Festival Betting Guide will have a good idea of what is coming here and the first to go are the top weights for the simple reason that only one horse carrying over 11st 5lbs has won the Grand National since 1957 and that was Red Rum! Therefore the stats are heavily against Le Coudray (11st 12lbs), Royal Auclair (11st 10lbs), Monty's Pass (11st 6lbs) and Fondmort (11st 6lbs) though I do rate Monty's Pass a decent place only bet on the lines of he loves the place and finished fourth last year off a bigger weight after it had chucked it down all morning. With the bottom weight on 10st 5lbs this year, the handicapper is more hell bent than ever to produce a winner carrying over 11st (not happened since 1983) so carrying a few pounds over that threshold wouldn't unnecessarily worry me, its those beyond 11st 5lbs that have it all do.

 

 

 

To me, the most blindingly obvious requirement in the Grand National and, especially with cut in the ground, is the ability to stay. As all winners since 1970 have won over a minimum of three miles, I can't be doing with this "you need a two-and-a-miler for the National" theory as history tells us that is absolute nonsense. They no longer go a married man's gallop like in the olden days on the first circuit and the ability to fully stay is paramount. Europa may be a ten-time winner but not beyond 2m4f so can go alongside Foly Pleasant (all 9 wins up to 2m5f), Iznogoud (all 4 wins up to 2m4f though twice placed in big 3m events), Jakari (all 6 wins no further 2m4f), Polar Red (all six wins at up to 2m4f), Risk Accessor (all 8 wins at up to 2m6f), Shamawan (all three wins at no further than 2m1f), Simply Gifted (all 7 wins at 2m4f or less) and Turnium (all 7 wins at up to 2m5f). For the record Le Coudray and Fondmort, who have already be glossed over for having too much weight, have also yet to win at a minimum of three miles.

 

 

 

On the age front we can confidently oppose young horses (seven and younger) which means the 7-y.o Double Honour can go as there has been no winner so young for 65 years and the 6-y.o mare L'Aventure has an even harder task as its been 90 years since a horse so precocious won the Grand National. At the other end of the scale no teenager has struck gold for 82 years so last year's winner Amberleigh House would be a most surprising winner.

 

 

 

French-breds also concern me. The fact that none have won since 1909 is off-putting though, to be honest, they have only really started attacking this race with vigour in the last half-dozen years. Most French-breds are bred for speed as there are few races beyond three miles in France and basic speed is not the key attribute required here. In the last four seasons, 41 French-breds have lined up but only two made the frame. On that basis I'm happy to take on Astonville, Heros Collonges, Joly Bey and Innox especially as none of that quartet have won beyond 3m1f. At this stage I would rather keep other French-breds Clan Royal and Marcus Du Berlais on side as we know the former stays for sure having finished second last season so it would be madness to strike a line through him on the stamina stakes whereas the latter has twice been staying on to finish placed in an Irish National over 3m5f so the likelihood is he will not fail for stamina unlike the vast majority of French-breds. Other French-breds in the race but already eliminated are Le Coudray, Royal Auclair, Fondmort, Foly Pleasant, Jakari, Iznogoud and Double Honour, the majority of which fail on the requirement of not winning over at least three miles which further drums home this point.

 

 

 

Horses wearing headgear should also be left alone. Just one winner since 1975 from 124 blinkered/visored/cheekpieced runners is a very poor return and it makes sense to look to horses that can see what is happening all around them with so many runners and loose horses all over the place. Horses wearing headgear are Merchants Friend and Arctic Copper (Innox and Double Honour will also don headgear but has been ruled out elsewhere).

 

 

 

It would be unfair to rule out any Paul Nicholls contender purely using his terrible record in the race (0 placed from 22 runners) as so much luck is required but his Ad Hoc is by Strong Gale who, despite being seven-times champion NH sire has never had a horse placed in the Grand National from many runners simply because his progeny don't fully stay. Ad Hoc has won two Whitbread Gold Cups so clearly he stays 3m5f on fast ground but 4m4f on rain-softened ground has to be seriously questioned. Glenelly Gale is another offspring of Strong Gale.

 

 

 

You should also be looking to a horse with more than a touch of class as this is no longer the slogger's race of old and out-and-out plodders rarely win these days unless it is a quagmire. On that basis, I'm happy to oppose three of the reserves should they get in as Native Emperor, A Piece Of Cake and Supreme Glory are slow old boats that would have trouble keeping up should they squeeze into the race late in the day. I would also place former winner Bindaree in the slogger category now as he gets left behind easily over three miles and they go three-mile pace here and you need to be on a horse bang in the firing line going out on the second circuit and I see him being too far back to mount a challenge.

 

 

 

Talking of having a touch of class, it is no coincidence that only winner in the last ten years had not won a pattern race or a Class A handicap. Using that argument, third-reserve Longshanks wouldn't have the class (not won out of Class D standard) and the same comment applies to Becher Chase runner-up Just In Debt, Cheltenham cross-country specialist Spot Thedifference, last year's third Lord Atterbury and one of the leading fancies Strong Resolve who has never won out of Class D grade. Bizarrely Take The Stand also fits this trend but having finished second in the Gold Cup there is clearly no doubting his class so we'll leave him in at this stage.

 

 

 

Next to go are the dodgy jumpers. Very occasionally one pops up, the last being Red Marauder in the joke of 2001 but it makes sense to give them the chop. Take The Stand may have run second in the Gold Cup but he is not the most foot-perfect of horses (and won't his favoured fast surface either) and has fallen three times in the last two seasons and also jumped badly around Haydock's drop fences (similar to these) on his two starts there this season so I don't fancy him to get round.

 

 

 

Finally I will overlook the confirmed hold-up horses as this is a race for prominent racers on the whole. Amberleigh House came from off the pace last season but, more often than not, the winner is leading or on the heels of the leaders going out into the country on the second lap. On that basis It Takes Time and Frenchman's Creek do not have the right running style as they need to be dropped into the race as late as possible. I know I put up Frenchmans Creek as my third ante-post bet in the ante-post guide but, as stated at the time, that was more out of sentiment.

 

 

 

If I was to be ultra tough I could eliminate horses not to have run in the last six weeks last the last 20 winners but I do feel this race is now changing and a longish break is all part of the plan and it would be harsh in the extreme to overlook Forest Gunner and Colnel Rayburn for being off the track for marginally longer. In fact, with so many positives in their favour, it would be plain stupid.

 

 

 

SHORTLIST

 

 

 

COLNEL RAYBURN

 

MARCUS DU BERALAIS

 

FOREST GUNNER

 

HEDGEHUNTER

 

BALLYCASSIDY

 

BALLYBOUGH RASHER

 

 

CONCLUSION

 

 

 

Although Ballycassidy and Ballybough Rasher survive all the negative trends, neither hit the mark on many positive trends and carrying 11st 5lbs will be no easy task especially in the latter's case who has been weighted up on form from 18 months ago when winning a Charlie Hall Chase at 40/1 when the market principals were unfit. The 11st stat is still a very strong one but it would silly to dismiss Hedgehunter for carrying 11st 1lb after his fine run last season. He palpably failed to stay however and will probably be ridden more conservatively by Ruby Walsh this time as a result and he's a year stronger so is respected. My concern is that I'm not sure he finishes his races whatever the trip. I'm very much in the Colnel Rayburn camp and have been since the weights were announced and put him up at 50/1. The fancy prices have all dried up about him and no wonder as Irish horses have a terrific record in the race of late winning three of the last six runnings, he's got a perfect weight of 10st 7lbs, Paul Carberry rides this place as well as anyone and he very much reminds me of the 2000 winner Papillon in that he is versatile with regards to trip having won a pattern race over two miles earlier in the season as well as being placed in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown over 3m4f. That means Carberry can position him where he wants and I expect him to race fairly prominently using his speed and having the stamina to last out better than most that also like to be up in the vanguard. Totally laid out for this race by the very shrewd Paul Nolan (has twice landed gambles to win the Galway Plate of late), unusually for a progeny of Un Desperado (sire of Best Mate), he prefers to get his toe in so ground conditions are also likely to suit. The current odds of 16/1 is now about right and hopefully you got on at much bigger after ordering the book. Marcus Du Berlais interests me at a top price of 40/1 (big each-way value) as, although a French-bred, he shouldn't have any trouble with the trip and, placed in the Irish National for the last two years, that race has been a cracking guide of late to the Grand National with Bobbyjo and Papillon also running screamers in that contest. He is another serious contender from Ireland providing his close-up third in this season's Irish National 12 days ago hasn't taken its toll. I'm not fussed at all about Carrie Ford being on top of Forest Gunner as you just point this horse in the right direction and fire him at the fences but I do question whether he will last home despite his victory over 3m4f last time and he could be underpriced with all the sentimental money coming for him. Clearly he has a belting chance if I'm wrong about the stamina issue

fcuk me , it was easier read war and peace

4.10 JOHN SMITH'S GRAND NATIONAL  

 

 

 

Those of you who have read the ante-post guide in the Aintree Festival Betting Guide will have a good idea of what is coming here and the first to go are the top weights for the simple reason that only one horse carrying over 11st 5lbs has won the Grand National since 1957 and that was Red Rum! Therefore the stats are heavily against Le Coudray (11st 12lbs), Royal Auclair (11st 10lbs), Monty's Pass (11st 6lbs) and Fondmort (11st 6lbs) though I do rate Monty's Pass a decent place only bet on the lines of he loves the place and finished fourth last year off a bigger weight after it had chucked it down all morning. With the bottom weight on 10st 5lbs this year, the handicapper is more hell bent than ever to produce a winner carrying over 11st (not happened since 1983) so carrying a few pounds over that threshold wouldn't unnecessarily worry me, its those beyond 11st 5lbs that have it all do.  

 

 

 

To me, the most blindingly obvious requirement in the Grand National and, especially with cut in the ground, is the ability to stay. As all winners since 1970 have won over a minimum of three miles, I can't be doing with this "you need a two-and-a-miler for the National" theory as history tells us that is absolute nonsense. They no longer go a married man's gallop like in the olden days on the first circuit and the ability to fully stay is paramount. Europa may be a ten-time winner but not beyond 2m4f so can go alongside Foly Pleasant (all 9 wins up to 2m5f), Iznogoud (all 4 wins up to 2m4f though twice placed in big 3m events), Jakari (all 6 wins no further 2m4f), Polar Red (all six wins at up to 2m4f), Risk Accessor (all 8 wins at up to 2m6f), Shamawan (all three wins at no further than 2m1f), Simply Gifted (all 7 wins at 2m4f or less) and Turnium (all 7 wins at up to 2m5f). For the record Le Coudray and Fondmort, who have already be glossed over for having too much weight, have also yet to win at a minimum of three miles.  

 

 

 

On the age front we can confidently oppose young horses (seven and younger) which means the 7-y.o Double Honour can go as there has been no winner so young for 65 years and the 6-y.o mare L'Aventure has an even harder task as its been 90 years since a horse so precocious won the Grand National. At the other end of the scale no teenager has struck gold for 82 years so last year's winner Amberleigh House would be a most surprising winner.  

 

 

 

French-breds also concern me. The fact that none have won since 1909 is off-putting though, to be honest, they have only really started attacking this race with vigour in the last half-dozen years. Most French-breds are bred for speed as there are few races beyond three miles in France and basic speed is not the key attribute required here. In the last four seasons, 41 French-breds have lined up but only two made the frame. On that basis I'm happy to take on Astonville, Heros Collonges, Joly Bey and Innox especially as none of that quartet have won beyond 3m1f. At this stage I would rather keep other French-breds Clan Royal and Marcus Du Berlais on side as we know the former stays for sure having finished second last season so it would be madness to strike a line through him on the stamina stakes whereas the latter has twice been staying on to finish placed in an Irish National over 3m5f so the likelihood is he will not fail for stamina unlike the vast majority of French-breds. Other French-breds in the race but already eliminated are Le Coudray, Royal Auclair, Fondmort, Foly Pleasant, Jakari, Iznogoud and Double Honour, the majority of which fail on the requirement of not winning over at least three miles which further drums home this point.  

 

 

 

Horses wearing headgear should also be left alone. Just one winner since 1975 from 124 blinkered/visored/cheekpieced runners is a very poor return and it makes sense to look to horses that can see what is happening all around them with so many runners and loose horses all over the place. Horses wearing headgear are Merchants Friend and Arctic Copper (Innox and Double Honour will also don headgear but has been ruled out elsewhere).  

 

 

 

It would be unfair to rule out any Paul Nicholls contender purely using his terrible record in the race (0 placed from 22 runners) as so much luck is required but his Ad Hoc is by Strong Gale who, despite being seven-times champion NH sire has never had a horse placed in the Grand National from many runners simply because his progeny don't fully stay. Ad Hoc has won two Whitbread Gold Cups so clearly he stays 3m5f on fast ground but 4m4f on rain-softened ground has to be seriously questioned. Glenelly Gale is another offspring of Strong Gale.  

 

 

 

You should also be looking to a horse with more than a touch of class as this is no longer the slogger's race of old and out-and-out plodders rarely win these days unless it is a quagmire. On that basis, I'm happy to oppose three of the reserves should they get in as Native Emperor, A Piece Of Cake and Supreme Glory are slow old boats that would have trouble keeping up should they squeeze into the race late in the day. I would also place former winner Bindaree in the slogger category now as he gets left behind easily over three miles and they go three-mile pace here and you need to be on a horse bang in the firing line going out on the second circuit and I see him being too far back to mount a challenge.  

 

 

 

Talking of having a touch of class, it is no coincidence that only winner in the last ten years had not won a pattern race or a Class A handicap. Using that argument, third-reserve Longshanks wouldn't have the class (not won out of Class D standard) and the same comment applies to Becher Chase runner-up Just In Debt, Cheltenham cross-country specialist Spot Thedifference, last year's third Lord Atterbury and one of the leading fancies Strong Resolve who has never won out of Class D grade. Bizarrely Take The Stand also fits this trend but having finished second in the Gold Cup there is clearly no doubting his class so we'll leave him in at this stage.  

 

 

 

Next to go are the dodgy jumpers. Very occasionally one pops up, the last being Red Marauder in the joke of 2001 but it makes sense to give them the chop. Take The Stand may have run second in the Gold Cup but he is not the most foot-perfect of horses (and won't his favoured fast surface either) and has fallen three times in the last two seasons and also jumped badly around Haydock's drop fences (similar to these) on his two starts there this season so I don't fancy him to get round.  

 

 

 

Finally I will overlook the confirmed hold-up horses as this is a race for prominent racers on the whole. Amberleigh House came from off the pace last season but, more often than not, the winner is leading or on the heels of the leaders going out into the country on the second lap. On that basis It Takes Time and Frenchman's Creek do not have the right running style as they need to be dropped into the race as late as possible. I know I put up Frenchmans Creek as my third ante-post bet in the ante-post guide but, as stated at the time, that was more out of sentiment.  

 

 

 

If I was to be ultra tough I could eliminate horses not to have run in the last six weeks last the last 20 winners but I do feel this race is now changing and a longish break is all part of the plan and it would be harsh in the extreme to overlook Forest Gunner and Colnel Rayburn for being off the track for marginally longer. In fact, with so many positives in their favour, it would be plain stupid.  

 

 

 

SHORTLIST  

 

 

 

COLNEL RAYBURN

 

MARCUS DU BERALAIS  

 

FOREST GUNNER  

 

HEDGEHUNTER  

 

BALLYCASSIDY  

 

BALLYBOUGH RASHER  

 

 

CONCLUSION

 

 

 

Although Ballycassidy and Ballybough Rasher survive all the negative trends, neither hit the mark on many positive trends and carrying 11st 5lbs will be no easy task especially in the latter's case who has been weighted up on form from 18 months ago when winning a Charlie Hall Chase at 40/1 when the market principals were unfit. The 11st stat is still a very strong one but it would silly to dismiss Hedgehunter for carrying 11st 1lb after his fine run last season. He palpably failed to stay however and will probably be ridden more conservatively by Ruby Walsh this time as a result and he's a year stronger so is respected. My concern is that I'm not sure he finishes his races whatever the trip. I'm very much in the Colnel Rayburn camp and have been since the weights were announced and put him up at 50/1. The fancy prices have all dried up about him and no wonder as Irish horses have a terrific record in the race of late winning three of the last six runnings, he's got a perfect weight of 10st 7lbs, Paul Carberry rides this place as well as anyone and he very much reminds me of the 2000 winner Papillon in that he is versatile with regards to trip having won a pattern race over two miles earlier in the season as well as being placed in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown over 3m4f. That means Carberry can position him where he wants and I expect him to race fairly prominently using his speed and having the stamina to last out better than most that also like to be up in the vanguard. Totally laid out for this race by the very shrewd Paul Nolan (has twice landed gambles to win the Galway Plate of late), unusually for a progeny of Un Desperado (sire of Best Mate), he prefers to get his toe in so ground conditions are also likely to suit. The current odds of 16/1 is now about right and hopefully you got on at much bigger after ordering the book. Marcus Du Berlais interests me at a top price of 40/1 (big each-way value) as, although a French-bred, he shouldn't have any trouble with the trip and, placed in the Irish National for the last two years, that race has been a cracking guide of late to the Grand National with Bobbyjo and Papillon also running screamers in that contest. He is another serious contender from Ireland providing his close-up third in this season's Irish National 12 days ago hasn't taken its toll. I'm not fussed at all about Carrie Ford being on top of Forest Gunner as you just point this horse in the right direction and fire him at the fences but I do question whether he will last home despite his victory over 3m4f last time and he could be underpriced with all the sentimental money coming for him. Clearly he has a belting chance if I'm wrong about the stamina issue

 

you could have just put its name

 

my daughter stuck a pen in hedgehunter in this mornings paper

16-1 I got on Innox an hour ago.

I got about 6's for a place (top 4?). Bargain! ??5 on COLNEL RAYBURN and Innox.

16-1 I got on Innox an hour ago.

 

I got 20-1 at Ladbrokes earlier, but have it on starting price so will just have to wait and see.

2nd came in for e/w me.

 my daughter stuck a pen in hedgehunter in this mornings paper

 

you see. you cant beat a nice big slice of jammy pie