I'd already gone E/W on Loyal & trusted and certainly wouldn't have gone with the winner.

Edited October 16, 201213 yr by Traf

7.50 Wolves: George Fenton @ 3/1 BOG

8.20 Wolves: Dark Dune @ 6/1 BOG

 

and a small E/W double.

Edited October 16, 201213 yr by Traf

Is it too early for tomorrow's choices? In no particular order...

 

6.10 Kempton: Perfect Honour. Trainer 2/4 here and horse C&D winner but 5/1 in that field is looking too short now. Will need to drift to make an EW bet possible.

 

2.20 Wetherby: Definitely opposing the likely favourite Don't Take Me Alive who is 1 place from 7 starts in field sizes of more than ten, and has thirteen others to contend with in this one. Tricky though and I wouldn't like to pick one, but the fav is there for the taking I think.

 

3.55 Wetherby: Lease Lend EW. Loooooooooooong absence but likes course and ground, proven at the weight, 5 out of 8 wins for this class and is 2/2 over opponents - and has won over slightly shorter and slightly further. The 16/1 currently knocking about is compelling.

 

4.05 Lingfield: Muntasir, Bin Suroor 52% SR at Lingfield, this horse has a win and 2 places from 4 starts on AW and should be much better priced than usual, possibly due to Dr Yes who was beaten 8/11 fav last time on AW. Anjaz is from the same stable and another danger at 1/1 on AW but races an extra half a mile here. Representation another obvious danger.

 

5.20 Nottingham: Divertimente is nothing to shout about but this is a preferred course and he is 7/10 against his opponents in this one. EW shout at 14/1. Might prefer better ground but for an experienced horse he's unexposed on softer stuff to be fair. Havin A Good Time could well win for Roger Varian.

Edited October 16, 201213 yr by Maggie Tate

Is it too early for tomorrow's choices? In no particular order...

 

6.10 Kempton: Perfect Honour. Trainer 2/4 here and horse C&D winner but 5/1 in that field is looking too short now. Will need to drift to make an EW bet possible.

 

2.20 Wetherby: Definitely opposing the likely favourite Don't Take Me Alive who is 1 place from 7 starts in field sizes of more than ten, and has thirteen others to contend with in this one. Tricky though and I wouldn't like to pick one, but the fav is there for the taking I think.

 

3.55 Wetherby: Lease Lend EW. Loooooooooooong absence but likes course and ground, proven at the weight, 5 out of 8 wins for this class and is 2/2 over opponents - and has won over slightly shorter and slightly further. The 16/1 currently knocking about is compelling.

 

4.05 Lingfield: Muntasir, Bin Suroor 52% SR at Lingfield, this horse has a win and 2 places from 4 starts on AW and should be much better priced than usual, possibly due to Dr Yes who was beaten 8/11 fav last time on AW. Anjaz is from the same stable and another danger at 1/1 on AW but races an extra half a mile here. Representation another obvious danger.

 

5.20 Nottingham: Divertimente is nothing to shout about but this is a preferred course and he is 7/10 against his opponents in this one. EW shout at 14/1. Might prefer better ground but for an experienced horse he's unexposed on softer stuff to be fair. Havin A Good Time could well win for Roger Varian.

 

It's never too early

And if you carry on like this, you can write my column for me.

_{3.55 Wetherby: Lease Lend EW. Loooooooooooong absence but likes course and ground, proven at the weight, 5 out of 8 wins for this class and is 2/2 over opponents - and has won over slightly shorter and slightly further. The 16/1 currently knocking about is compelling.}

 

_{38/1 on Betfair now...going to make me very happy or look daft.}

2.30 Lingfield: Close Together @ 6/1 BOG won

3.00 Lingfield: Kingswinford @ 7/1 BOG (E/W) unplaced

3.35 Lingfield: Noble Deed @ 10/1 BOG (E/W) unplaced

8.40 Kempton: The Cornishcockney @ 10/1 BOG (E/W)

 

Plus 6 x 0.25pts doubles on them!

Plus 1pt E/W double on the last two.

 

3.25 Wetherby: Unknown Rebel @ 10/1 BOG (E/W) unplaced

4.05 Lingfield: Muntasir @ 9/2 BOG unplaced

6.40 Kempton: Marford Missile 8/11 BOG won

9.10 Kempton: Alraased 15/8 BOG

Edited October 17, 201213 yr by Traf

 

 

_{38/1 on Betfair now...going to make me very happy or look daft.}

 

Not run for 18 months, but gets lumbered with top weight!

A weight it has won at, though. Wondering if I'm missing something glaring for it to be 38/1.

A weight it has won at, though. Wondering if I'm missing something glaring for it to be 38/1.

 

His last win was at Wetherby 19 months ago carrying 11-12, so yes he can carry the weight and yes he's proven at the course and on soft ground etc. (you already know this from HRB)

But a 15 month lay off after 3 poor runs for a nine year old doesn't create market confidence.

He's a 20/1 shot in my opinion and I rate him as 7th or 8th best here. There are some good horses out today, notably Pigeon Island, Gansey, Alvarado and Mac Aeda, but he could go very well fresh.

My feeling is that he might just need a run and he'll do better next month.

2.50 Wetherby: Tara Royal @ 11/2 BOG unplaced

5.30 Wetherby: Saga de Tercey : 13/2 BOG (E/W) unplaced

Edited October 17, 201213 yr by Traf

Well done MT.

Aye, haven't seen the race but it looked too good to be true at such a price, lay off or not. Got 6/1 for the place. Shite otherwise but the Wetherby 2.20 fav got turned over at 11/10 as I thought it might. Perfect Honour iat 6.10 Kempton has drifted from 9/2 to 7/1 so I've gone an EW punt there.

Well, the ones I put up on here haven't gone well, but a place for Thecornishcockney will see me in profit there and I'd a 10/1 E/W 2nd and 14/1 E/W winner on SotD and I'd lumped them in a small £5 E/W double too.

 

So, I've made my money today, just not on here!

Oh, and on eof the lads down at Lingfield told me to get on Schoolmaster at 8/1 for the 5.10 race, but I didn't see the message until it was too late!

That one won, of course.

That was one of Hugh Taylor's for today.

 

Try as I might I can't find a thing for tomorrow. Looked carefully at Ela Gonda Mou 3.30 Wolves but others appeal as well in a trappy one.

 

If the price allows an EW punt I may return to Prickles at 5.10 Uttoxeter. She seems to be a dreadful horse but practically every bit of form is Uttoxeter for a trainer who can't go wrong there.

That was one of Hugh Taylor's for today.

 

Try as I might I can't find a thing for tomorrow. Looked carefully at Ela Gonda Mou 3.30 Wolves but others appeal as well in a trappy one.

 

If the price allows an EW punt I may return to Prickles at 5.10 Uttoxeter. She seems to be a dreadful horse but practically every bit of form is Uttoxeter for a trainer who can't go wrong there.

 

Somedays. mate, there's nothing there!

Unfortunately for "work" I have to find something!

Right, early shout for tomorrow's as I'm about to go out supping

 

Haydock 3.00 Fat Gary (not made my mind up about this fully yet) 4.45 Nothing short of a substantial wager on Chosen Character will suffice (would be my SOTD if I had one)

 

Cheltenham 5.05 Iheardu EW

 

Fakenham 12.00 Haymarket 12.30 Alpine Breeze 1.00 House Party

 

Wolverhampton 6.20 Work Ethic (awful horse in terrible company, trainer seems to bring in a few bob with 2 yr olds on AW at this time of year though)

 

And that's it. Better than today's shite. That Prickles horse getting backed into 7/4 was ridiculous.

a substantial wager on Chosen Character will suffice (would be my SOTD if I had one)

 

 

It's on the shortlist. Not sure if the course will pass inspection, though.

I was there meeting some people today and it looks a bog in places.

 

PS We talked about CC 3 weeks ago: http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-of-the-day-28th-september-2012/

Edited October 18, 201213 yr by Traf

Friday 19/10:

 

12.30 Fakenham: Bai Zhu 9/2 BOG 3rd

4.30 Cheltenham: Landscape 7/2 BOG 6th

4.45 Haydock: Chosen Character 9/2 BOG 2nd

5.40 Cheltenham: Dark Lover 6/1 BOG won

6.20 Wolverhampton: Mr Paranoia 5/1 BOG 5th

 

6.20 Wolverhampton: Pearl Noir 6/1 E/W BOG 2nd

7.20 Wolverhampton: Carries Magic 14/1 E/W BOG 5th

(E/W double on these two) lost

Edited October 20, 201213 yr by Traf

I see Chosen Character made the cut.

 

Delighted to have got 9/2 and even money for the place last night. Jockey claims a handy 5lb too. I see Tiger Reigns in the same race is 4/1 from 9s.

The other two on my list have a couple of niggling doubts about them and having backed CC 3 weeks ago, I was just waiting for the inspection result.

CC beat Tiger Reigns last time around and I think the presence of another couple of front runners will help.

8.20 Wolverhampton: El Mirage 6/1 E/W BOG won

Edited October 20, 201213 yr by Traf

Right, early shout for tomorrow's as I'm about to go out supping

 

Haydock 3.00 Fat Gary NR 4.45 Chosen Character 2nd, was glad toi get even money on the place so no harm done

 

Cheltenham 5.05 Iheardu EW Never in touch, pulled up

 

Fakenham 12.00 Haymarket 3rd 12.30 Alpine Breeze Fell with the race in the bag 1.00 House Party 3rd

 

Wolverhampton 6.20 Work Ethic 1st

 

Not too far off overall. Winner at Wolves left me just about even.

Tomorrow's picks are Sunday's dogfood:

 

Catterick 5.15 Conry EW

Kelso 3.15 Super Ally EW

Wolves 8.20 Julius Geezer. Tentative pick I hope to see drift so I can go EW.

 

Always a chance of burnt fingers but I'm looking to Saddler's Rock at the 1.45 Ascot. Other bet will probably be an Excelebration/Elusive Kate forecast.

I like Saddlers Rock too, so does Mr B.