Traf Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 Day 8 : 3/6 : +3.63pts Overall 20/63 ( 31.75%) : +3.65pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 (edited) Day 9 : 16/12/12 Part (i) 12.50 Musselburgh : Everaard @ 7/2 BOG N/R 2.00 Carlisle : Do It For Dalkey @ 9/2 BOG 2nd 2.30 Carlisle : Gleann Na Ndochais @ 8/1 E/W BOG u/p 2.50 Musselburgh : Morning Time @ 10/1 E/W BOG u/p Edited December 17, 2012 by Traf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 (edited) Part (ii) 12.50 Musselburgh: Dusky Bob @ 3/1 BOG won 2.30 Carlisle: Ruff Diamond @ 8/1 E/W BOG 2nd & River Dragon @ 17/2 E/W BOG u/p 2.40 Hereford: According to Eileen @ 50/1 BOG E/W PU & Love of Tara @ 8/1 E/W BOG u/p (4th!) 2.50 Musselburgh: Bhaltair @ 9/4 BOG u/p 3.10 Hereford: Ukrainian Star @ 9/2 BOG won at 13/2 & Loughalder @ 9/1 E/W BOG 3rd 3.40 Hereford: Rifleman @ 22/1 E/W BOG & Halucha @ 18/1 E/W BOG both u/p Edited December 17, 2012 by Traf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 (edited) Day 9 : 4/13 : +1.63pts Overall 24/76 ( 31.58%) : +5.28pts Edited December 17, 2012 by Traf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Been keeping an eye on this, quite interested in what sort of sytem your using for these paticular picks. Good to see it slowly working its way into profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 There's no actual set system to picking these really. There are quite a few little things that I try and factor into compiling the selections, but much of it centres around my own race ratings, plus horses' previous runs, irrespective of finishing positions. I do use systems too for some of my other (not published here!) bets and they are completely formulaic. Take the following for example, it's unproftable to blindly back Tony McCoy. Since Jan 1st 2011, he has ridden 416 winners from 1645 races, a strike rate of 25.3%. If you'd put £10 on every one of them, you'd now be £1030 worse off. You'd have lost just 6% of your stakes. However, Tony does better in non-handicap hurdle events at: Cartmel, Chepstow, Exeter, Leicester, Leopardstown, Plumpton & Sandown In that same time frame, his record is 21/52 = 40.4% strike rate and the profits to £10 stakes would be £190, or a 36.5% return on your stakes. Basically the first set of figures made a £1030 loss from £16,450 invested. If you invested that £16,450 over the second set of selections, (i'm fully aware that each bet would have been around £316, but it's hypothetical!), you'd have made £6010 in 2 yrs. I realise some of you find this boring, but it's a part of what i do for a living, we don't al have interesting jobs like Virgin Media telesales gurus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 (edited) Mon 17/12 Part (i) These are what I selected overnight, unfortunately many have shortened in price this morning, before I got chance to post. 2.15 Ffos Las : Stow @ 7/1 William Hill won 2.35 Plumpton : John's Gem @ 5/1 Bet365 won 2.45 Ffos Las : Kaybeew @ 3/1 Bet365 PU 3.35 Plumpton : Thunderstorm @ 7/4 Bet365 won at 5/2 3.55 Wolverhampton : Gabrial's King @ 11/4 Bet365 2nd 3/5 : +12.5pts Edited December 17, 2012 by Traf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 (edited) Part (ii) 2.05 Plumpton: Brunettes Only @ 9/4 BOG PU 2.15 Ffos Las: Stow @ 9/2 BOG won 2.35 Plumpton: Bach To Front @ 16/1 E/W BOG PU 2.35 Plumpton: Romney Marsh @ 3/1 BOG u/p 2.45 Ffos Las: Siberian Tiger @ 8/1 E/W BOG u/p 2.45 Ffos Las: Incentivise @ 3/1 BOG u/p 3.15 Ffos Las: Streetdance @ 25/1 E/W BOG 2nd 3.35 Plumpton: Little Roxy @ 2/1 BOG 3rd 2/8 : +1.13pts Edited December 17, 2012 by Traf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breightmet Boy Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 (edited) Part (ii) 2.05 Plumpton: Brunettes Only @ 9/4 BOG 2.15 Ffos Las: Stow @ 9/2 BOG 2.35 Plumpton: Bach To Front @ 16/1 E/W BOG 2.35 Plumpton: Romney Marsh @ 3/1 BOG 2.45 Ffos Las: Siberian Tiger @ 8/1 E/W BOG 2.45 Ffos Las: Incentivise @ 3/1 BOG 3.15 Ffos Las: Streetdance @ 25/1 E/W BOG 3.35 Plumpton: Little Roxy @ 2/1 BOG Just watched Stow win that, very close but held on well. The jockey wasn't whipping enough I reckon Nice 2nd with Streetdance, it came in to 13/2 from the 12/1 I took, pity I went on the nose for some stupid reason. Edited December 17, 2012 by Breightmet Boy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Day 10 : 5/13 : +13.63pts Overall : 29/89 ( 32.58%) : +18.91pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 There's no actual set system to picking these really. There are quite a few little things that I try and factor into compiling the selections, but much of it centres around my own race ratings, plus horses' previous runs, irrespective of finishing positions. I do use systems too for some of my other (not published here!) bets and they are completely formulaic. Take the following for example, it's unproftable to blindly back Tony McCoy. Since Jan 1st 2011, he has ridden 416 winners from 1645 races, a strike rate of 25.3%. If you'd put £10 on every one of them, you'd now be £1030 worse off. You'd have lost just 6% of your stakes. However, Tony does better in non-handicap hurdle events at: Cartmel, Chepstow, Exeter, Leicester, Leopardstown, Plumpton & Sandown In that same time frame, his record is 21/52 = 40.4% strike rate and the profits to £10 stakes would be £190, or a 36.5% return on your stakes. Basically the first set of figures made a £1030 loss from £16,450 invested. If you invested that £16,450 over the second set of selections, (i'm fully aware that each bet would have been around £316, but it's hypothetical!), you'd have made £6010 in 2 yrs. I realise some of you find this boring, but it's a part of what i do for a living, we don't al have interesting jobs like Virgin Media telesales gurus. Do you do a lot of statistical/system bets or do you take most of your bets from your own ratings? I stopped doing the horses a while back as i didnt have as much time as i would like and i kept undoing my good work by doing daft bets! Now ive got a bit more time im starting a fresh and trying to be a bit more structured Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Do you do a lot of statistical/system bets or do you take most of your bets from your own ratings? Both, mate. Sorry to be so vague. Discipline & record keeping is vital. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Both, mate. Sorry to be so vague. Discipline & record keeping is vital. No problem mate. I thought as much, i mainly used to do systems/statistics but never tried doing any ratings properly. This time im going to delve into the ratings route as well. Cheers for the advice, it was definatley the discipline that was my biggest enemy last time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 S, if you've still got my email address, feel free to drop me a line if you need help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 S, if you've still got my email address, feel free to drop me a line if you need help. Cheers mate. Ive seen a couple of things online that have given me ideas and i think ive a got a few bits to start off with. Im gonna trial it on paper for a bit and see how it pans out. Once i compare results to it hopefully things will stick out to me that will help make it better. Thats my theory anyway! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 (edited) Day 11 : 18/12/12 Part (i) 12.50 Lingfield : Prince Of Prophets @ 2/1 BOG Bet365 u/p 2.00 Folkestone : Quapriland @ 11/4 BOG Paddy Power won 2.40 Catterick : Bobbits Way @ 10/1 E/W BOG Bet365 u/p 2.50 Lingfield : Parisian Pyramind @ 3/1 BOG Bet365 2nd, caught on the line! 1/4 : -0.25pts Edited December 18, 2012 by Traf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 (edited) Part (ii) 1.40 Catterick: Dystonia's Revenge @ 15/2 E/W BOG u/p 2.10 Catterick: Carmela Maria @ 5/1 BOG won 3.00 Folkestone: Artic Night @ 13/2 E/W BOG PU 3.30 Folkestone: Duke of Ormond @ 8/1 E/W BOG u/p 1/4 : +2pts Edited December 18, 2012 by Traf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Day 11 : 2/8 : +1.75pts Overall : 31/97 ( 31.96%) : +20.66pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 (edited) Day 12 : 19/12/12 Part (i) 12.50 Newbury : Fabulous Fred @ 11/1 E/W BetVictor PU 1.10 Ludlow : Tara Rose @ 3/1 BetVictor u/p 3.10 Lingfield : Noguchi @ 7/2 Bet365 6th 4.55 Kempton : Forest Edge @ 3/1 Bet365 10th of 10 Edited December 21, 2012 by Traf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 (edited) Part (ii) 1.50 Newbury: Sustainability @ 7/2 BOG won 2.45 Ludlow: Basoda @ 12/1 E/W BOG 4th at 16/1! 1/2 : +2.5pts Edited December 19, 2012 by Traf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 (edited) Just noticed that yesterday's weren't posted here! I did put them on the racing forum I frequent, but forgot to post here. They were: 2.10 Towcester: Shaking Hands @ 4/1 BOG won at 11/2 2.40 Towcester : Bright Cloud @ 11/2 BOG PU & Gouranga @ 40/1 E/W BOG 4th 3.30 Lingfield : Beat Route @ 6/1 BOG 5th 6.00 Kempton : Bank On Me @ 6/1 BOG 5th 7.00 Kempton : Atlantis Crossing @ 7/1 BOG won So, Day 12 : 0/4 : -4.0pts Day 13 : 2/6 : +8.5pts Overall : 33/107 ( 30.84%) : +25.16pts Edited December 21, 2012 by Traf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 21/12/12 Part (i) 1.20 Ascot : Jumps Road @ 9/4 BOG 1.35 Lingfield : Bubbly Bailey @ 11/2 BOG (add a place bet on betfair if it's 6/1 or over at the off) 3.05 Ascot : Spanish Arch @ 9/4 BOG 5.20 Wolverhampton : Staffhoss @ 13/8 BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Part (ii) 3.05 Ascot: Dauiseoir @ 7/2 BOG & Grey Soldier @ 14/1 E/W BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Sack of shit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breightmet Boy Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 SotD 2nd by two lengths, I thought it would win it off the bend. The accounts in profit still Traf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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