...for most of you, but this is a project I'm working on, which I'm happy to openly trial on here for now!

 

I'm looking for long term profitability, which will inevitably mean good days and bad!

 

Day 1: 08/12/12

 

12.55 Sandown: Dolly Penrose 8/1 EW BOG u/p

1.15 Wetherby: Amore Mio 6/1 EW BOG 3rd

1.25 Sandown: Hollins 33/1 EW BOG u/p

1.25 Sandown: Lightning Strike 22/1 EW BOG PU

1.45 Wetherby: Lease Lend 15/8 BOG u/p

2.05 Chepstow: Royal Charm 6/1 EW BOG u/p

2.10 Aintree: In Compliance 10/1 EW BOG u/p

2.20 Wetherby: Minsky Mine 7/1 EW BOG u/p

2.30 Sandown: Rajamand 18/1 EW BOG u/p

2.40 Chepstow: Maurice the Athlete 6/1 EW BOG 3rd

2.40 Chepstow: Sangfroid 16/1 EW BOG u/p

2.45 Aintree: Seven is Lucky 22/1 EW BOG u/p

3.05 Sandown: Sanctuaire 5/2 BOG u/p

Edited December 9, 201213 yr by Traf

Day 9 : 16/12/12

 

Part (i)

 

12.50 Musselburgh : Everaard @ 7/2 BOG N/R

2.00 Carlisle : Do It For Dalkey @ 9/2 BOG 2nd

2.30 Carlisle : Gleann Na Ndochais @ 8/1 E/W BOG u/p

2.50 Musselburgh : Morning Time @ 10/1 E/W BOG u/p

Edited December 17, 201213 yr by Traf

Part (ii)

 

12.50 Musselburgh: Dusky Bob @ 3/1 BOG won

2.30 Carlisle: Ruff Diamond @ 8/1 E/W BOG 2nd & River Dragon @ 17/2 E/W BOG u/p

2.40 Hereford: According to Eileen @ 50/1 BOG E/W PU & Love of Tara @ 8/1 E/W BOG u/p (4th!)

2.50 Musselburgh: Bhaltair @ 9/4 BOG u/p

3.10 Hereford: Ukrainian Star @ 9/2 BOG won at 13/2 & Loughalder @ 9/1 E/W BOG 3rd

3.40 Hereford: Rifleman @ 22/1 E/W BOG & Halucha @ 18/1 E/W BOG both u/p

Edited December 17, 201213 yr by Traf

Day 9 : 4/13 : +1.63pts

Overall 24/76 ( 31.58%) : +5.28pts

Edited December 17, 201213 yr by Traf

Been keeping an eye on this, quite interested in what sort of sytem your using for these paticular picks. Good to see it slowly working its way into profit.

There's no actual set system to picking these really.

 

There are quite a few little things that I try and factor into compiling the selections, but much of it centres around my own race ratings, plus horses' previous runs, irrespective of finishing positions.

 

I do use systems too for some of my other (not published here!) bets and they are completely formulaic.

 

Take the following for example, it's unproftable to blindly back Tony McCoy. Since Jan 1st 2011, he has ridden 416 winners from 1645 races, a strike rate of 25.3%. If you'd put £10 on every one of them, you'd now be £1030 worse off. You'd have lost just 6% of your stakes.

 

However, Tony does better in non-handicap hurdle events at: Cartmel, Chepstow, Exeter, Leicester, Leopardstown, Plumpton & Sandown

In that same time frame, his record is 21/52 = 40.4% strike rate and the profits to £10 stakes would be £190, or a 36.5% return on your stakes.

 

Basically the first set of figures made a £1030 loss from £16,450 invested.

If you invested that £16,450 over the second set of selections, (i'm fully aware that each bet would have been around £316, but it's hypothetical!), you'd have made £6010 in 2 yrs.

 

I realise some of you find this boring, but it's a part of what i do for a living, we don't al have interesting jobs like Virgin Media telesales gurus.

Mon 17/12

 

Part (i)

 

These are what I selected overnight, unfortunately many have shortened in price this morning, before I got chance to post.

 

2.15 Ffos Las : Stow @ 7/1 William Hill won

2.35 Plumpton : John's Gem @ 5/1 Bet365 won

2.45 Ffos Las : Kaybeew @ 3/1 Bet365 PU

3.35 Plumpton : Thunderstorm @ 7/4 Bet365 won at 5/2

3.55 Wolverhampton : Gabrial's King @ 11/4 Bet365 2nd

 

3/5 : +12.5pts

Edited December 17, 201213 yr by Traf

Part (ii)

 

2.05 Plumpton: Brunettes Only @ 9/4 BOG PU

2.15 Ffos Las: Stow @ 9/2 BOG won

2.35 Plumpton: Bach To Front @ 16/1 E/W BOG PU

2.35 Plumpton: Romney Marsh @ 3/1 BOG u/p

2.45 Ffos Las: Siberian Tiger @ 8/1 E/W BOG u/p

2.45 Ffos Las: Incentivise @ 3/1 BOG u/p

3.15 Ffos Las: Streetdance @ 25/1 E/W BOG 2nd

3.35 Plumpton: Little Roxy @ 2/1 BOG 3rd

 

2/8 : +1.13pts

Edited December 17, 201213 yr by Traf

Part (ii)

 

2.05 Plumpton: Brunettes Only @ 9/4 BOG

2.15 Ffos Las: Stow @ 9/2 BOG

2.35 Plumpton: Bach To Front @ 16/1 E/W BOG

2.35 Plumpton: Romney Marsh @ 3/1 BOG

2.45 Ffos Las: Siberian Tiger @ 8/1 E/W BOG

2.45 Ffos Las: Incentivise @ 3/1 BOG

3.15 Ffos Las: Streetdance @ 25/1 E/W BOG

3.35 Plumpton: Little Roxy @ 2/1 BOG

 

Just watched Stow win that, very close but held on well. The jockey wasn't whipping enough I reckon

 

Nice 2nd with Streetdance, it came in to 13/2 from the 12/1 I took, pity I went on the nose for some stupid reason.

Edited December 17, 201213 yr by Breightmet Boy

Day 10 : 5/13 : +13.63pts

Overall : 29/89 ( 32.58%) : +18.91pts

There's no actual set system to picking these really.

 

There are quite a few little things that I try and factor into compiling the selections, but much of it centres around my own race ratings, plus horses' previous runs, irrespective of finishing positions.

 

I do use systems too for some of my other (not published here!) bets and they are completely formulaic.

 

Take the following for example, it's unproftable to blindly back Tony McCoy. Since Jan 1st 2011, he has ridden 416 winners from 1645 races, a strike rate of 25.3%. If you'd put £10 on every one of them, you'd now be £1030 worse off. You'd have lost just 6% of your stakes.

 

However, Tony does better in non-handicap hurdle events at: Cartmel, Chepstow, Exeter, Leicester, Leopardstown, Plumpton & Sandown

In that same time frame, his record is 21/52 = 40.4% strike rate and the profits to £10 stakes would be £190, or a 36.5% return on your stakes.

 

Basically the first set of figures made a £1030 loss from £16,450 invested.

If you invested that £16,450 over the second set of selections, (i'm fully aware that each bet would have been around £316, but it's hypothetical!), you'd have made £6010 in 2 yrs.

 

I realise some of you find this boring, but it's a part of what i do for a living, we don't al have interesting jobs like Virgin Media telesales gurus.

 

Do you do a lot of statistical/system bets or do you take most of your bets from your own ratings? I stopped doing the horses a while back as i didnt have as much time as i would like and i kept undoing my good work by doing daft bets! Now ive got a bit more time im starting a fresh and trying to be a bit more structured

Do you do a lot of statistical/system bets or do you take most of your bets from your own ratings?

 

Both, mate.

Sorry to be so vague.

 

Discipline & record keeping is vital.

Both, mate.

Sorry to be so vague.

 

Discipline & record keeping is vital.

 

No problem mate. I thought as much, i mainly used to do systems/statistics but never tried doing any ratings properly. This time im going to delve into the ratings route as well.

 

Cheers for the advice, it was definatley the discipline that was my biggest enemy last time!

S, if you've still got my email address, feel free to drop me a line if you need help.

S, if you've still got my email address, feel free to drop me a line if you need help.

 

Cheers mate. Ive seen a couple of things online that have given me ideas and i think ive a got a few bits to start off with. Im gonna trial it on paper for a bit and see how it pans out. Once i compare results to it hopefully things will stick out to me that will help make it better. Thats my theory anyway!

Day 11 : 18/12/12

 

Part (i)

 

12.50 Lingfield : Prince Of Prophets @ 2/1 BOG Bet365 u/p

2.00 Folkestone : Quapriland @ 11/4 BOG Paddy Power won

2.40 Catterick : Bobbits Way @ 10/1 E/W BOG Bet365 u/p

2.50 Lingfield : Parisian Pyramind @ 3/1 BOG Bet365 2nd, caught on the line!

 

1/4 : -0.25pts

Edited December 18, 201213 yr by Traf

Part (ii)

 

1.40 Catterick: Dystonia's Revenge @ 15/2 E/W BOG u/p

2.10 Catterick: Carmela Maria @ 5/1 BOG won

3.00 Folkestone: Artic Night @ 13/2 E/W BOG PU

3.30 Folkestone: Duke of Ormond @ 8/1 E/W BOG u/p

 

1/4 : +2pts

Edited December 18, 201213 yr by Traf

Day 11 : 2/8 : +1.75pts

Overall : 31/97 ( 31.96%) : +20.66pts

Day 12 : 19/12/12

 

Part (i)

 

12.50 Newbury : Fabulous Fred @ 11/1 E/W BetVictor PU

1.10 Ludlow : Tara Rose @ 3/1 BetVictor u/p

3.10 Lingfield : Noguchi @ 7/2 Bet365 6th

4.55 Kempton : Forest Edge @ 3/1 Bet365 10th of 10

Edited December 21, 201213 yr by Traf

Part (ii)

 

1.50 Newbury: Sustainability @ 7/2 BOG won

2.45 Ludlow: Basoda @ 12/1 E/W BOG 4th at 16/1!

 

1/2 : +2.5pts

Edited December 19, 201213 yr by Traf

Just noticed that yesterday's weren't posted here!

I did put them on the racing forum I frequent, but forgot to post here.

 

They were:

 

2.10 Towcester: Shaking Hands @ 4/1 BOG won at 11/2

2.40 Towcester : Bright Cloud @ 11/2 BOG PU & Gouranga @ 40/1 E/W BOG 4th

3.30 Lingfield : Beat Route @ 6/1 BOG 5th

6.00 Kempton : Bank On Me @ 6/1 BOG 5th

7.00 Kempton : Atlantis Crossing @ 7/1 BOG won

 

So,

Day 12 : 0/4 : -4.0pts

Day 13 : 2/6 : +8.5pts

 

Overall : 33/107 ( 30.84%) : +25.16pts

Edited December 21, 201213 yr by Traf

21/12/12

 

Part (i)

 

1.20 Ascot : Jumps Road @ 9/4 BOG

1.35 Lingfield : Bubbly Bailey @ 11/2 BOG (add a place bet on betfair if it's 6/1 or over at the off)

3.05 Ascot : Spanish Arch @ 9/4 BOG

5.20 Wolverhampton : Staffhoss @ 13/8 BOG

Part (ii)

 

3.05 Ascot: Dauiseoir @ 7/2 BOG & Grey Soldier @ 14/1 E/W BOG

Sack of shit.

SotD 2nd by two lengths, I thought it would win it off the bend. The accounts in profit still Traf

SotD 2nd by two lengths, I thought it would win it off the bend. The accounts in profit still Traf

 

I can't buy a fucking winner for SotD at present. We keep getting very close and the logic behind the stats is good, but......

 

Shit happens and generally for a reason.