September 25, 201312 yr You must be fucking pyskick Trafster! I have been waiting for Gai Waterhouse to announce the precise lead up plan for Fiorente. Will he go via the Caulfield Cup or take the more favoured route these days for very high class horses (which he most certainly is) of the WFA WS Cox Plate. The latter would fill me full of optimism after his game second in last years Cup after just arriving from Michael Stoutes stable and his absolutely stunning 'storm home from last' win in the Group 2 Dato Chin Nam Stakes at Caulfield on the 14th September. She announced this morning - missing the Caulfield Cup and his route to the big one will be via the Cox Plate. I have just laid into it on Betfair at 8.40 the win and 3.6 the place. I believe that 11.00 may be available in some UK markets? He will go very, very close to winning this years event. Of the exposed challengers, Puissance De Lune has shown a couple of weaknesses and nothing else is leaping out. I will take a very interested look at Michael Owen's Brown Panther at Goodwood tonight. Apparently a good performance will have him straight into quarantine for the trip over. All I can say mate is 'get on'. Nash Rawiller is one of the 'gun' jockeys down here. On the weekend of the Dato Chin Nam, his current abode, Sydney, had million dollar Group Ones on the card at Rosehill which he would have had plum rides in.. He elected to go Melbourne instead for one ride on Fiorente in a Group 2. When interviewed after the race, through a steely gaze he said words to the effect of "It is rare to be on a horse with a huge chance of securing the Cox Plate - Melbourne Cup double so there is no way I am risking losing the ride. Not for anything. There will be other Golden Rose meetings but this year, this bloke is my absolute priority". Fiorente is an each way bet to nothing in my opinion.
September 25, 201312 yr Author My request was a very thinly veiled "I'll be on holiday a week before the race, so I need advance info" post
September 25, 201312 yr Author Brown Panther's not all that, mate: irrespective of how he runs today. I'm not convinced he'll beat Grandeur and/or Sugar Boy (i've actually backed the latter at 11/2) Fiorente's best price over here is 7/1 for both races. When is the barrier draw made? Backing all runners drawn 7 to 14 in the last 7 years to a £10 stake would have made a simple £410 profit.
September 25, 201312 yr Author Brown Panther attempted to make the running and couldn't put the race to bed. He was at least 5 or 6 lengths clear of Grandeur at the 2 pole and finished 5th of the 9 runners, a good 5 lengths behind Grandeur who won. Getting done for 10+ lengths over the final 2f of 10f doesn't make for Melbourne success.
September 25, 201312 yr Brown Panther attempted to make the running and couldn't put the race to bed. He was at least 5 or 6 lengths clear of Grandeur at the 2 pole and finished 5th of the 9 runners, a good 5 lengths behind Grandeur who won. Getting done for 10+ lengths over the final 2f of 10f doesn't make for Melbourne success. I can't see that getting beat over an easy ten furlongs will have much bearing when he's stepped back up to two miles. Not only that, but the winner had a huge pull at the weights and was running at his optimum trip on a course that clearly suits. I'd have thought BP's shithouse connections would be fairly pleased with that effort.
September 26, 201312 yr Watched a replay of it. Bold statement but, he cannot possibly beat Fiorente based on that run - further, I don't believe he will get within 10 lengths of him, That's the final one crossed off the list as a potential challenge unless something suddenly emerges over here over the next 4 weeks and 'sprouts wings' (note - this can happen with a Kiwi coming over or through the master, Bart Cummings). Traf will recall the 6 with the right credentials - Sea Moon, Gondokoro, Jet Away, Hawkspur, Fiorente and Super Cool. I have watched a re-watched every lead up race any have been involved in and none of the other 5 have impressed me 10% of the amount that Fiorente has. I think Gondokoro may have sustained a season ending injury. Certainly a big chance of a good each way result on the likes of Sea Moon 20-1, Super Cool 47-1, Jet Away 100-1 etc. as they could certainly place. I do believe, however, that they will be looking at Fiorente's rump from various distances as they cross the finishing line for the final time. I think the barrier draw is made at 6pm after the unbelievably good VRC Derby Day mate. The date for that this year is November 2nd.
October 13, 201312 yr Sensational news this morning. Over the moon with it. Oliver is the best around. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/damien-oliver-to-ride-melbourne-cup-favourite-fiorente-after-nash-rawiller-sacked/story-fnibcgg5-1226733783145
October 16, 201312 yr Yeah, thanks Bolty. Fukn ace that, keeping us all informed on the latest news etc. Keep up the good work pal. (Fucking ingrates).
October 16, 201312 yr Author Didn't see it. Sorry, mate. Just been invited to Breeders Cup, but it clashes with family holiday.
October 18, 201312 yr Only having a larf mate - as you would well know. Sensationally, Ollie has now been suspended and will miss the Cox Plate ride but not the Melbourne Cup. His replacement, Blake Shinn, for the Cox Plate is a highly accomplished rider and will be hoping to dislodge Oliver for the Cup ride if he can win the Cox Plate in style. I see this as no detriment whatsoever but, I always intended a 25% win 75% place bet on Fiorente is the Cox Plate as I do not believe it is the ultimate goal. Gai wants the big one. I will npot be changing my betting strategy.
October 18, 201312 yr Author A defeat in the Plate might ease the odds for the big one, too. Not that I'm suggesting Aussie racing is slightly bent.
October 18, 201312 yr Hawkspur for the Caulfield Cup, Bolty? Surely not Glencadam Gold? Hawkspur a tremendous chance mate. Would be Jim 'Pumper' Cassidys 100th Group One too. The planets do seem to be aligning. Also like Jet Away to run a big un.
October 20, 201312 yr Always my worst day of the year the Caulfield cup mate. Can't explain it. Usually do well Cox Plate, VRC Derby and Melbourne Cup days but the Caulfield Cup day always seems to be a bit of a damp squib. No change this year.
October 23, 201312 yr A defeat in the Plate might ease the odds for the big one, too. Not that I'm suggesting Aussie racing is slightly bent. Not sure that they would play that game mate. Have you seen the prize money for the Cox Plate? They'll be trying for sure and certain. Fiorente could conceivably do the double. Oh, and I wish I could change the thread title! 2013 not 2014!!!! Edited October 23, 201312 yr by bolty58
November 4, 201312 yr Been a bit scarce thanks to work issues but will be back on here more regularly soon. All on target for Fiorente. The perfect lead up race in the Cox plate. Firmly believe a first 3 placing will happen and probably a win. Dangers - Seville (Lloyd Williams owns Crown Casino in Melbourne. Won it last year with Green Moon. 6 runners this year but this is his best). Verema - the Aga Khans horse and has won the right lead up races. Can make a case for Voleuse De Coeurs, Mount Athos, Royal Empire and even Dandino. No budging though. Fiorente for me. If it wins you'll hear the cheers from there because I will be in for a tidy sum.
November 4, 201312 yr Difficult for me to quantify most of the Australian form given that I don't follow it at all, but Sea Moon must be worthy of interest, if only off the back of his run in the Hardwicke at Ascot last year. And I still reckon Owen's horse must go there with a fair each way chance from a good draw.
November 5, 201312 yr Winner, winner, chicken dinner. A fucking enormous chicken dinner too. That's a 5 digit collect for me. I also have the quadrella as I took Fiorente-Field-Field-Field. Wanted Sea Lord to win the 9th and pipped on line. Would have made an enormous collect. Let's hope the despised outsider wins the last!!! Also collected 65% of the cup trifecta for Fiorente-Field-Field. Days like this come far too rarely.
Just 6 weeks away now, so what's the news from Down Under, Bolty?