peelyfeet

fuck all for now - it takes 2-3 weeks to see the effect, so the numbers in the NW are already going to go up until mid Nov anyway. I seriously doubt Tier 3 is going to be enough to get the R rate below 1, I can't see that it's going to reduce the overall amount of contacts that are currently being made, by enough, there's too many caveats, and not enough enforcement.

From my experience it depends on the shop - If I go to Tesco, almost everyone has a mask on - go to the garage or local shop, folk can't be arsed. At the Eddie Davies there's a load of rules that we get sent every week and an online form we have to fill in before every session or match. Players don't share travel, no parents allowed to watch training, at matches 1 parent per player, parents wear masks, distance (there's cones set out on the touchline, every 2 M), stay in cars until just before kick off, yet every session so far, there's always a few who break every rule, carry on as normal, some folk just aren't arsed.

I'm fairy sure Tier 3 isn't going to be enough for many areas, if the govmt want the R rate to get below 1. Unless folk change their behaviour. It's not happening from what I can see I went to the BP Garage at chequerbent last night - about 10 in, no distancing - not one had a mask on, the guy serving had it round his chin. I was in a Garage in worsley a few hours before - same there. I know of a welfare officer at a local kids football club who sent their son into school despite him being told to isolate for 14 days by the club ( tracing didnt get in touch so "I'm just following the guidelines") I know of a supermarket area manager who lied about where he'd been on holiday to his employees so he didnt have to quarantine, and could go into work. I know of mates who have holiday booked over half term out of the area - they're all still going. It's not going to stop spreading at the same rate, unless we reduce the amount of close contacts we make. If we did this off our own back we wouldnt need any restrictions at all. Folk make excuses for themselves, they think their actions will have no bearing.

2 weeks to see if the numbers start to drop enough.. They will go down, but will it be enough? I doubt it. Half term will help. More restrictions for Nov I bet.

We're going into Tier of sorts, I'm 99.99% sure. Burham may have got some more cash. There will possibly be further restrictions required on top of Tier 3, nationwide, possibly for months What happens then - we will need more cash, are we spening some of that now? Short termism from loads of folk, on both sides.

I said a few weeks ago the overall message would get lost in the frenzy - we are in it now. for clarity: Bolton's additional restrictions a few weeks ago caused our figures to plateau a few weeks later. In Europe now, although the numbers are going up across the board, they're rising nowhere near as fast as in Spring. To give you some perspective - in Spring in the UK we went from 0.01 deaths per day per million, up to 14 in a month - 140,000% increase this time weve gone from 0.25 up to 1.72 in a month - 688% increase. The govmt think this is mainly because of the restrictions/ hygeine / behavioural changes we have been employing as opposed to the "wash yer hands" last time. BUT cases have gone up from 90 per day per million to 250 per day per million in the last 3 weeks we've got months of winter ahead multiple vaccines are in the pipeline for early 2021, and they will help to some extent. In summary The govmt think restrictions reduce the rate of increase in infection spread a lot, but the current ones don't reduce the rate enough to slow it down, so it's still growing, but taking a longer time to do so than it would usually. They'll keep adding restrictions / recommending behavioural changes, until it slows. We wont be able to tell if its going to slow enough for a few weeks.

Doesn't make much sense does it. If they'd heeded earlier warnings and locked down 2 weeks ago, lockdown could have been avoided ?? God knows.

Ireland 6 weeks lockdown https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-irelands-govt-agrees-to-six-weeks-of-tightest-coronavirus-restrictions-report-12108678

Letting people die and get ill costs too. And people would have stopped going to work, school shops off their own back, and the economy is also affected by international circumstances. It would still have been fucked over.

The govmt and Sage think tens of thousands more would have died in Spring, directly and indirectly, if we didn't reduce the amount of contacts by shutting down in the way we did. They think the same now.

It'll be much better though. We live with other diseases and vaccines help a massive amount. My NHS mate says there's 1.6 million vaccines on order for delivery, 26th December. No idea if this is NHS in total or just NW. It's 2nd hand info though, from a mutual mate, not the sharpest tool I'll get clarification.

I know mate. The rules don't make a great deal of difference to aerosols. If you aint got good ventilation, and you haven't got a mask on , and you sit in a room for a few hours, your lungs will be filtering the contents of the air in the room. I reckon in the future they'll look back and think, what the beejesus were we doing telling folk its ok to sit in a bar as long as your table is a few metres away from your mate Dave. I've got nothing against pubs, it would be the same at choir practice. They should have prioritised outdoor seating. Pedestrianise the roads near pubs, let the wind blow the aerosol away, get some outdoor heaters up. Partially covered seating. Simple stuff.

It doesn't matter if the rules have been broken or not. Go indoors, take your mask off for a couple of hours, have a good old breathe in, in a building that 100 others have already been in, maybe a few young piss heads. Then blame the government/ vulnerable people. Repeat. You won't catch me indoors without a mask on, anywhere, for ages. Pub, church, sports hall, cinema, mosque, office. Not a chance.

Nope, can't see them allowing it, we'd shut down before it got that bad. The rate of increase is slower than before, by a lot, which gives us much more notice.I expect we'll see 200 ish for a few weeks, its not going to get much better anytime soon. Depends how well the restrictions work. Next few weeks is going to be worse than the last few.

Almost half the folk dying at the last peak were in care homes - that's not happening so far, so it has a big impact on overall deaths figures. Treatments are working better, triage is better, treatmet is earlier, vulnerable are shileding more, non covid wards are better protected. The virus isnt getting any less virulent - people who get a large dose, with a poor immune system for what ever reason can die easily - 5% of over 75's, around 15% over 85's. It's a lot of people if you extrapolate it out. In the West, Black African and Carribean, and Indian and Pakistani heritage Males 2.5 times more likely to die, after socio economic/ comorbidities, multi generation household, occupational factors have been ruled out. 2.1 for women. some think its Vitamin D - could be, might be something else.

The latest bullshit trend I've seen on social media, that the covid sceptics are now saying, is rises in covid deaths over the next coming weeks will realy be flu deaths, or if not, people who would have died of flu anyway. Their argument is that flu/pneumonia deaths so far this year is below the average - which is true, we are at 60k flu/pneumonia death YTD, whereas the 5yr average is 77K - however we were already 6K below average from the first few weeks of the year, when covid wasn't here, and you'd expect the restrictions to have an effect on flu deaths anyway. These are the same folk who a few weeks ago were saying the extra cases wouldn't result in any extra hospitalisations and deaths, in Summer were saying there would be no 2nd wave, and before that were saying the total deaths per year would even itself out at the end of the year ( covid has just killed some people a bit early that's all). It's bollox. So far Total deaths in the UK YTD is 463K The 5 year average YTD is 409K - the highest is 435K For us not to have by far the highest Total yearly deaths of the last 5yrs, we are going to have to have record low deaths over the next 12 weeks - Theres no sign this is going to happen. The Total deaths over the last 4 weeks is 3% over the average and rising. I think we'll end up with about 60K extra deaths above the average, by the end of the year, which is about 10% more folk dying than in an average year, and 5% more than a nomally really bad year, If we continue with restrictions. If they suddenly decide to go for herd immunity, which I cant see, it will be higher.

I've got a mate who lives in Astley Bridge - has a son about 8, and one who's 13. Think they both go to school in Turton Both at home, both on their 2nd spell. He says the virtual learning for the 8 year old is much more difficult for the parents, the 13yr old just can get on with it on hs own.

out of my lads academy team of 12, so far; 1 positive case 2 have isolated twice 4 isolated only once 3 who haven't isolated but have siblings who have had to 3 who haven't had to do anything yet this is families from Bolton, Radcliffe, Stockport, West Lancs, Preston, Worsley, St Helens. its affected 75% of families at least once, in 6 weeks, but only 8% have had a confirmed case so far - not sure if this is a reliable snapshot, or just bad luck.

It needs a re-think - in a few weeks there are going to be classes/years in some schools where large numbers of kids who've already had the virus, are going to have to isolate multiple times, causing them disruptions in their eductaion, affecting their physical and psychological health, and making their parents take time off work, unnecessarily. On the flip side there's vulnerable parents who were told to shield in the first wave, who live in areas where the virus is now more widespread in the community than it was the first time round, yet they have to send the kids into school, or face fines. Im sorry, but If my Mrs was vulnerable, there's not a chance I'd be sending my kids in. I've just had a chat with a couple of mates who have kids isolating at home at the moment One's got 3 school age kids, 1 in primary and 2 in secondary - there's been 1 week since Sept when he's had all 3 kids in school at the same time - his mrs is a teacher, so she has to go in to work most days, he's spent weeks off work. The other one's son tested positive a few weeks ago, caught it off his dad, did his isolation - sent home from school for 12 days today because someone tested positive in his class - can't play football or leave his house for 12 days - what for? It's supposed to be about minimising risk whilst allowing the economy to get on as best as possible.

I know of several mate's kids who are now on their 3rd isolation period since 2nd week in Sept, and loads that have had 2. This is becoming very shit for some households, especailly if you've got more than 1 school age kid. some poor kids will be facing 5 weeks indoors out of the last 8, and they're supposed to distance from family members in the house - unhealthy and psychologically damaging. One of my lads has just done his first 14 days, the other one is awaiting test results of his mate, so he could be out in the next day or so. I'm all for isolating when neccesary, but I'm seriously considering taking my boys out of school if this continues for much longer, they can learn from home for a few months and still go out for walks and get excercise, play footy etc - I can't understand why the govmt aren't considering letting some kids, who are able to, school from home as an option, surely it's better than having to isolate multiple times. Imagine what it's going to be like if you've got 3 or 4 school age kids. It's bonkers having the schools full every day and making kids isolate if they've already had a positive test - there's been 24 cases of reinfection so far in the world, out of 40 million.

I was on a save water advert with Stuart Hall in the 1970s. There had been a drought and I was on holiday with my family in the lakes. We went to haweswater reservoir, because when it gets really dry you can see the remnants of a village that was flooded when the reservoir was constructed. Stuart Hall was there filming and he got all the kids to shout "save water" Got 50p off him. He didn't bum me.

1 win, Harrogate. Never thought this would happen. Imagine if we go down. Fucking slimy Anderson's fault this. Twat

Football

Agreed, now let me watch Everton get smashed

Its the young crack on bit I'm against. Catastrophic error IMO if anyone tries it. 4mins