peelyfeet

I'm not saying shield the vulnerable doesn't help. I'm saying shield the vulnerable and let the young crack on, doesn't work. Sweden are arguably at 10% seropositivity after 7 months. Cracking on would take ages, the virus would be rife in the community so vulnerables would have to be isolated from contact, the country would still have a health issue. Some vulnerables would still catch it, under 60s still get ill, some still need hospitalisation, some die. The economy would still take a battering. Taking a 3rd of the population out of circulation for a long time, and letting a virus infect millions of folk has consequences. Its why nobody has done it, and every country is trying to delay spread, bu whichever method they think works best. UK and USA and Sweden will not be seen as shining examples of how to do it. If it happens again I bet nobody copies them.

What do we tell vulnerable people and those they live/work/care for or are cared by to do differently. I don't want a "shield them better answer", what practical things do we tell the millions of folk in the above category to do or not do from today?

Tier 3 is already restricting movement

Geography is easier because you can stop people from moving. I can't stop my kids breathing inside my house.

Say my wife gets breast cancer and has to have chemo. I've got 2 school age kids, one plays for bwfc, and a 75yr old dad that I help out in a support bubble, and a business to run. What do my kids do, no school until vaccine or herd immunity, no football? Do I stop helping my dad. He lives on his own, does he stay in his house for months? What about the nurse giving my wife chemo, does her familiy isolate too? It's not practical.

Because I don't think it works well. Theres too many vulnerable and its very difficult to stop them bumping into non vulnerable. Its a third of the population and they interact with non vulnerables. Youd have to impose the same restrictions on those who come into contact with non vulnerables. Theres 350k new cancer patients in the UK every year, for example, what do you say to all the people who live with them? If you tell Northerners its illegal to travel out of their zone, that protects the other areas.

I just think we could have tried again in summer, I cant understand why we came out of lockdown in the north at the same time as london when they were weeks ahead, it was a bonkers decision. anyway time will tell - this is a good piece on Sweden https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/it-s-been-so-so-surreal-critics-sweden-s-lax-pandemic-policies-face-fierce-backlash

the date is irrelevant - we could have tried the same by extending the intial lockdown for a bit longer, but we didn't beacause we prioritised short term economic gain, and now its bitten us in the bum.

We'll have to agree to disagree. I think youre looking short term. If we had done a Taiwan in Summer, which we could have, we would be looking to arrange travel bubbles now, but we aren't going to be able to for months. how do you think the travel industry will like that?

My wife is a senior operations manager for the UK's largest Business travel firm. They are fucked because even if we let folk travel around the world, the majority of the countries where they want to travel to aren't letting them in, or want them to quarantine on arrival. Travelling causes infection spread because you expose yourself to a much larger pot of people, than you do when you stay at home and go to work. The more contacts you make, the higher your % chance of catching the virus. You have to go through airports, sit on planes and coaches for hours, with folk from your country that you wouldnt meet if you were in Chorley for 2 weeks.

Taiwan - since mid March - initially all foreign nationals banned from entering the country and now - Restrictions have since been relaxed for foreign university students and those seeking medical treatment in Taiwan, subject to prior government approval. All who are admitted into the country must complete a fourteen-day quarantine upon arrival, except for business travelers from countries determined to be at low or moderate risk, who are subject to five- or seven-day quarantines and must submit to a COVID-19 test. UK in Summer Deidre from Stockport moaning on ITV news because she'll have to cut her holiday to Turkey short by 2 days to avoid quarantining when she gets back, so she can go to work "I can't afford to not miss work, when I get back" - she says as she sips from a rum and coke, in the Burak Bar in Bodrum. It's jam today or jam tomorrow We want as much Jam as we can get today and as much as we can get tomorrow.

They're 15th worst out of 217 in the least deaths per 1m population charts They're 3 weeks behind us and cases are on the rise. They've been highlighted as a success by lockdown sceptics because some of their restrictions have been less severe. Taiwan have had no lockdown and 195000% less deaths per population, and their economy is ok, why aren't we banging on about them ?

It's a cumulative effect though, on the economy and the infection rate, which he doesn't get. Using the figures above, If I go to just school/uni and the gym, as opposed to just school/uni, my chance of getting a case of covid doesn't increase from 35% to 36.5% - it goes to 87.5% However, the difference between the effect on the economy of shutting schools compared to Gyms woud be massive I think. If the govmt can get the R rate below 1, whilst keeping schools and essential services/work open they will do that - everything else will go beforehand, in stages, until they get there. If they end up with the r rate still over 1, schools and unis will go.

Lancashire for me , but my kids go to school in GM, and I'm in and out of GM every day of the week.

I've seen that before, but don't know what the source is. The real numbers are going to vary from country to country, and are affected by how well the ICU's can cope - survival may well be 99.5% for 50-69 yr olds, if every 50-69 yr old gets an ICU bed if they need it. If they dont get an ICU bed, the survival rates drop. With all statistics, it's in the outliers where all the action is. The study below, is recent, and takes info from multiple seropositive and national tracing figures - it's not peer reviewed so may have critics, but its fairly comprehensive stuff, looking at published figures from around europe and the US. The estimated IFR in this study is close to zero for children and younger adults but rises exponentially with age, reaching 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, 15% at age 85 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6.full.pdf+html if we assumed that these figures happend in the UK, if we went for herd immunity, say 70% of the population required to acheive it, and we had an ICU bed for everyone, this is how many would die. 85 and over 168,000 75 - 85 106,000 65 - 75 44,000 under 55 20,000 ish Total 338,000 Then you need to add on all the folk who will die as a consequence of reduced NHS care/suicide etc. This year, so far, we are at 464K total deaths - the 5yr average YTD is 409.5K (ranging between 383K and 436K) Normally about 600k folk die in the UK a year - rising that up to 900K if the stats above are correct, would push covid death rates into the same ball park as World Wars.

Some hospitals in the NW are almost full now. The folk admitted today caught the virus 2 weeks ago. In some areas the cases have trebled in 2 weeks. Therefore in some areas hospitalisations may treble in 2 weeks. Thats why they're shitting it. If the rate continues, you end up being over run very quickly. If you have to lockdown for 2 weeks, you do it when numbers are low. If you do it when you're about to burst, more die and you've still had to do the same 2 weeks, just on a different date.

The nightingales non usage was helped because no fucker went to A&E for weeks, and thousands cancelled operations to make room. Consequently, deaths at home rocketed. Old folk dying of strokes and heart attacks because they were too scared to go to Hospital. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53999485

The number of folk dying of other ailments is going to grow if the hospitals get fuller with covid patients. Its why loads of care home folk died last time, the hospitals shipped them out to make room. If the ICU gets full, they triage the most helpless admissions. An 85 yr old cardiac arrest patient and a 50 yr old covid patient turn up at A&E on the same night needing the last ICU bed, the 85 yr old gets left to die on a normal ward.

Either. Something has to be done to reduce the amount of contacts we're making. Theres hospitalisations in the bank for the next month already. The R rate has got to get below 1. Looks to me like it was about 1 a couple of weeks ago in Bolton. The evidence of this is the daily new cases rate aint changed much for 11 days. This is what happens when 1 person only infects 1 person, the numbers stay the same. I doubt that this has happened by coincidence when every where else the numbers have smashed upwards. I think its because we reduced contacts with our stricter restrictions in sept. This doesn't mean the rest of the country has to copy what we did, it could work just as well if a different restriction or behaviour change was introduced. Just have to make less people meet others, especially indoors/crowded/poor ventilation. Less travelling and earlier isolation. Simple physics, hard to please everyone in practice.

You need 3 or 4 to stop it spreading in the household unfortunately. If we all stay in for 2 weeks, spread in the home goes up. Son passes it to mum and dad after a week, they're both asymptomatic, dad goes back to work just as he's most infectious. Most folk are most infectious about 5-9 days after infection. Coming out of a lockdown with the majority non infectious is what you want, an extra week buys several in the future.

Cant understand why schooling from home wasn't offered to those who wanted to do it. I've got 2 sons, one could have easily continued schooling from home for the foreseeable, wouldn't have made much of a difference to him. I've got a mate whose son is just starting his 3rd different isolation period, because of school twice, and his dads positive once. He'll have done about 2 and a half weeks of school by the time half term is done, since March.

Down again. Effect of the extra restrictions in Bolton in Sept. The number aint changed much for 11 days, whilst loads have overtaken us, and almost everyone is rising. Think we will start to rise again soon.

Good luck . Loads of water and rest pal, get outside in the sun if there is any. I've got a 34yr old mate, semi pro footballer, says his eyes and skin are sore, feels like he's got a headache in his skin. He feels like crap through the night, but better in the day. Hope it won't last too long for you.

Quelle fucking surprise https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8844255/Now-Matt-Hancock-says-vitamin-D-amid-mounting-evidence-protects-against-Covid-19.html

4 more pigs ears