peelyfeet

I don't think your defiantely wrong - the conclusion I'm drawing is - they don't know whats going to happen because the succes is based on how many vaccines they can get in us, the take up of the vaccines in younger age groups, and exactly how well they work in middle aged, which I think is why they've given themselves 5 weeks - they're claiming that it takes that long to see a difference, which is bollocks, it takes that long to see the deaths, but they'll get the gist of whats happening after 2-3 weeks. If they can get the vaccine numbers up by an extra million a week, it will make a massive difference long term.

have a read of what sage think, if you can be arsed, its not a light read! https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963381/S1102_Children_s_Task_and_Finish_Group_update_to_17th_December_2020_paper_on_children__schools_and_transmission.pdf

The hospitalisations in under 50s isn't much different than 50-69 - (it's a lot lower than the over 70s,) but the deaths are much lower - the hsopitals will be busy but much less deaths.

It's not happening - they know loads more people may die because they haven't been vaccinated in time, but it seems they would rather chance that than delay opening up a bit. The modelling reports I'm looking at do not look good at all - which is probably why they're doing the 5 week review between each unlocking. I just don't unerstand the strategy, schools are a high risk, Sage say it going to increase the R rate by bettwen 10% and 50% - so why not vaccinate the teachers and parents if you wan them open early? I don't get it - they could do the teachers in a weekend.

Sage have just said that with starting to open up in 2 weeks, they think there's going to be another 30k covid deaths between now and June and, if they get the timings wrong another 120k on top after that. I've read some of the modelling, it's all over the place - they haven't got a scooby, mainly because they dont know exactly how efficacious the vaccine is going to be in younger ages yet and they dont know how many vaccines they can deliver, FFS. Hopefully we'll have a hot as fuck spring and everyone gets the wndows open and spends time outdoors.

Hope its some sort of phase - Bojo is on in 15 mins so I'm sure we'll find out asap

Jebus kwiste

haha - if you do the maths, It appears daft mate - if you want everyone back in school fair enough, it has lots of dvantages, but why not vaccinate all the teachers and parents to make it really low risk beforehand - by end of easter, which means 2 weeks more of online school for most, they could do an extra 15 million - that would be all the teachers and schol workers plus the vast majority of parents. It's taken us a year to get 14 million with antibodies from natutral infection, all the lockdowns and restrictions, all the shit - we could literally do the same by having 2 more weeks online learning and having a tragetted vaccine progmamme - makes no sense to me at all. Some poor fuckers parents are probably going to die for the sake of two weeks in school, and when I say poor, they probably will be, some single parent asthmatic from Breightmet.

Realistically, it's likely that about 14 million of the uk population have had it, and 17.5 million have had one shot, so back of a fag packet, probably 4 million of them have had both the virus and the vaccine, so about 27.5 million are safe for now, which leaves 40 mill who aren't, we could get that down to 30 mill immedialtley safe if we waited until after Easter, with another 5 mill who will have been vaccinated and would be safe a few weeks later, when the antibodies kick in - seems like a no brainer to me, I dont understand why you'd risk the health of 10 million people, many who are going to be the age of secondary school parents. why wouldn't you let the 27.5 million safe have more freedoms first - get the parents vaccinated, oldest first, then send the kids back in - seems bonkers to me, for the sake of a few weeks, after all we've gone through.

Hospitalisation rate is still high in under 60s though, they just don't die anywhere near as much as the oldies when they get in there - in Israel they've got more under 60s in hospital with covid than over 60s for the first time in a year. using 5-17 year olds as the base group - increased chance of hospitalisation, according to CDC, in the non vaccinated are; 30 - 39yr old X10 40 - 49 yr old X15 50 - 64 yr old X25 65 - 74 yr old X35 75 - 84 yr old X55 I just think it's an illogical risk - we are vaccinating at a massivley higher number than the daily infection number, - it's roughly a 380K benefit every day - there's got to be a break even point somewhere, but why not do a phase in for a few weeks to be safer instead of lumping them all in, in one go - I don't think anyone would be too bothered with that, if it means some kids have an extra few week at home, for the sake of caution, it can't be that bad surely?? - if they get it wrong, it takes much longer to get the numbers down than vice versa.

It's just a risk I don't think they should be taking for the sake of 2 weeks more online schooling - I don't think the benefit out weighs the risk - 10 million more people safe for the sake of 2 weeks of online school. Start to open up - yes by all means, but open up the activities least likely to have large scale infection first and go from there - doing stuff outside is multiple times safer than indoors - let us go to the pub outside, let the kids play with their mates outside before you put 9 million kids indoors for 5 hours a day 7 days a week, then send them home to mainly unvaccinated parents. Just seems an illogical risk to me, and nobody else has done it so we dont know what the results will be. If there is no phasing, I'll be suprised if we don't see a large rise in the non vaccinated and under 60s in hospital in April, and I'll be surprised if the govmt don't think this too -so they must be willing to let it happen. They haven't had a good track record over the last year, I think they're making the same mistake that they've made again, and I think they'll get loads of flack for it. It seems the policy all along has been to crack on with as many deaths and illness as we can handle, instead of getting the infection rate realy low and letting us have longer periods out of lockdown, and preventing deaths and illness. hope they do some sort of phasing, will have to see

It should be phased in, the youngest first in areas of low infection, for a few days at a time - they are least likely to become ill, and their parents are on average younger too - see how the infection rates go, then take it from there. Imagine if you're an old parent, without a vaccine in a poor area, with high infection, like Middlesbrough - 250 per 100k versus a young parent in a well off area with a low infection rate, like cheltenham - 28 per 100k.

If they don't do a phased return, I think it's fucking stupid. Israel have a phased return - infants and last 2 years of secondary in for 1 day so far, only in areas with low cases - all the rest not back in for another month - they have vaccinated 50% of the population with at least one shot, nearly all eligable adults over 30yrs old - 30% have had 2 shots - on 8th March we will have done 25% with about 2% having 2 shots. An extra 4 weeks of closed schools, is an extra 10 million vaccinated, many in the age group that are parents of secondary and college kids. Almost all of those 10 million would have massivley reduced risk of getting ill, or if they do, getting ill seriously, less chance of passing it on, etc, a few weeks after the vaccine. They're bascially saying it's a herd immunity experiment for school kids and their parents, everyone back in, off you go, let's see how the numbers rise, and if it's manageable, FFS. Cases in September, before the kids went back last time had been below 1,000 a day for 10 weeks, - we are still at 11,000 today, and the current strain is more virulent than back then. It took us less than 3 weeks to go from 10k to 20k when the schools were open last time, with the case rises initially in the young and middle aged - it will happen again. Have they learnt nothing! short term pain = long term gain. Hospitalisations as a % of the infected in the 30 - 60 yr old age is high - they don't die anywhere near as much as the oldies, but they still end up in hospital in large numbers. 2 fucking weeks - extend the summer term by 2 weeks FFS many kids don't give a shit about the online learning, it's the socialising, playing outside, having a game of footy that they're missing and which will restore mental health and wellbeing and is masivley less infection risk - let them do that instead - having indoor classes 2 weeks before easter aint going to give them much more benefit than waiting until after.

We've got to admit, it's been shite and needs improvement. Even when my lad signed, it was a let down, there was no photo op, no player or manager or ex player, just a load of parents in a room filling in forms. Nothing special, no celebration. Of the lads who currently play in my lads year, 1 supports bwfc, most of them have been there since 6yrs old. They get free tickets to every home match. Theres 1 or 2 who go regularly, some never go, others maybe 3 or 4 times a season. The kids don't know who the players or the manager are, or anything of the history. I'm talking 13 and 14 year olds whove been playing in the academy for 8 years. When I told my son that Jimmy Phillips had left, he said "who's he?"

I only know what its been like over the last 8 years - my lad has been at bolton since he was 5 - his older brother played for ladybridge and teams around wigan and west lancs, I saw a few bolton scouts watching his matches and tournaments, but you wouldnt have known if you didn't know their faces - John Haworth was the main one at youngesters age- but they'd also send the coaches out to grass roots games. whilst he's been there, from 5 or 6yrs up to to 8yrs old, bolton only used to select about 20 lads per year, and sign about 10 of them at age 9, whereas many of the other academies are like sausage factories - my lad was at city for a few years when he was young (it was too far to travel - we live in west lancs), must have seen 200 kids come and go in the space of a couple of years, and you see most of them playing for smaller clubs now. from what I can gather, FV want to get more involved with local teams. If they're true to their word they'll probably invite more clubs down to the academy to play and train.

The current issue is - City/United/Liverpool/Everton academy rejects currently don't want to come to BWFC before considering if they can get in at one of those other 3 academies first, and then Leeds, sheff united, Burnley, Stoke, Blackburn, Crewe, Sheff Weds, Preston, Wigan, Barnsley - they all have better facilities and more training hours, and play higher calibre opposition. We get the rejects from these clubs and are now competing for them with the likes of accrington, rochdale, salford, oldham, blackpool, morecambe, fleetwood. I'm fairly sure we will try to get local kids from an early age and keep them loyal, you have a better chance of getting decent quality in that way - once the lads signs at 9 the club can keep hold of decent players until they get an offer they think is worthwhile or put him in the first team. It's not going to change any tme soon I think

All depends on what is classed as back to normality - they can either go for a gradual reduction of restrictions, which they'll be able to introduce earlier, or go for a longer lockdown, wait until more have had the 2nd dose and then a faster removal of restrictions I'd go for 2nd option, but I fear that they're going to open up as soon as they get the green light, which will mean a higher rate of continuous spread of infection and hospitalistion but less deaths for the time being - but it also means higher chance of mutation, which might come back and bite us in the arse. So in real terms, the sooner they open, the more kids and unvaccinated will catch the disease, and vice versa If they do it too early we'll likley have loads of school and uni kids self isolating multiple times again, and restrictions on social gatherings for longer, and a longer wait to travel abroad, and some middle aged people, and those oldies unlucky enough to not get proper cover from the vaccine, wil die - but we'll be able to go back to work sooner - so is that a return to normal ? If it's tmed right, you don't have to wait until everyone is vaccinated to achive zero covid - if the infection rate is really low, like it was in summer, it takes a while for it to ramp back up again - exponential growth starts off really slowly and the larger the difference between the daily cases number and the vaccinated, the more benefit you get - we are at 20k cases a day and 400k vaccinated - in crude terms, each day is a 380K benefit, over 2 weeks thats 5 million - will make a big difference if they can hang on for a few weeks more to get the cases number really low, but I doubt they will. On another, slighly alarming note - in countries where the new variant is currently at a low prevelance, like the US and many parts of Europe, many think they're in for a big shock if they don't lockdown or get the vaccination program ramped up asap - they reckon in will be mid March before the new variants takes a hold there like it did here - what is currently working there to get their R rates just below 1, won't work anymore in about 5 weeks. Any area that has lax restrictions is going to get hit unless they get the vaccines sorted.

I'll be reet - I might have had it in January anyway - the bloke I stood next to 5 days at week at son's bwfc training/matches was in Wuhan in late December for a week - in the university every day - Umist have a partnershp with them, he's on the board, they have to have board meetings once a year in China for some reason - he came back with what he called a bad Chinese "cold" and I ended up catching it off him and was in bed for 2 days, 2nd week of Jan, wouldn't surprise me one bit If I've already had it - but maybe not - never find out I suppose.

not far off 50

when will I get the vaccine calculator (this is not a 2021 remix of a famous song by Bros) https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk#atrisk

Death numbers are going to drop off a cliff in March and April News from Israel is that they can now see massive reductions in hospitalisation numbers of those who have had the vaccine - I''m talking giant drops - 16 seriously ill out of the 770k after the second dose Cases in the UK are almost a third today of what they were a month ago, and the vaccine is just starting to affect the numbers. How soon we open up depends on what the govmt want to do - if they open up too early, cases in the non vaccinated will shoot up and lead to hospitalisations and deaths, but much less so than normal becasue the majority of vulenarble will be protected - and if they open up too late they risk destroying more of the economy and everythig that goes with that. If it was me I'd err on the side of caution - when the numbers drop they'll drop like a stone, so in my mind the benefit of a couple of extra weeks lockdown would be better all round. Be almost back to normal mid spring I bet

In Taiwan, on the 2nd Feb they got the army to make masks ASAP because they identified a shortage - they ploughed money into quickly upscaling the production lines - making 10 million a day, banned exports - took us until 15th June to make them mandatory on public transport - 19 weeks. hindisght is everything, but it's a long time that

if it comes out that they knew, and bullshitted us to protect PPE supplies, told people to shake hands and go about their business, knowing that the virus is airborne indoors - told us to go to pubs for months - told our kids to go to school, there will be murder. Theres 100k dead, probably going to be 140k maybe more - thats a lot of pissed off relatives. I think they just undersatimated it to an extent and were more concerned about the economic impact

It might not have been understood by our experts, but it was by Chinese and South Korean, and then Taiwanese, nations with better experience than us in dealing with similar spread - I honestly think there was an initial delay because they regarded being hesitant with the introduction of restrictions to protect the economy as more important than being over cautious and following the example of the far Eastern nations. I think the desire to prioritise protecting the economy has been the Achillies heel of the West. I dont think it's a coincidence that Australia and New Zealand copied the far east, and even though the WHO have some flack - this is what DR Mike Ryan told us - if only we'd listened