January 5, 201313 yr Author 5/1/13 2.35 Lingfield Swiss Cross @ 10/1 E/W BOG u/p 2.40 Wincanton: Consigliere @ 9/2 BOG 2nd 3.20 Chepstow: Master Overseer PU & Arbor Supreme 4th at 33/1 (as on the Welsh National thread) Edited January 5, 201313 yr by Traf
January 5, 201313 yr Author 5/1/13 2.35 Lingfield Swiss Cross @ 10/1 E/W BOG u/p 2.40 Wincanton: Consigliere @ 9/2 BOG 2nd 3.20 Chepstow: Master Overseer PU & Arbor Supreme 4th at 33/1 (as on the Welsh National thread) 4pts staked, 4.63pts returned. Small acorns...
January 6, 201313 yr Author 6/1/13 2.55 Plumpton: Present To You @ 12/1 E/W BOG u/p 4.00 Plumpton: Engai @ 16/1 E/W BOG 2nd Edited January 6, 201313 yr by Traf
January 7, 201313 yr Author 7/1/13 2.50 Wolverhampton: One Way Or Another @ 11/8 BOG won at 7/4 3.00 Kempton: Beat The Bell @ 11/10 BOG u/p 3.10 Taunton: Alwaystheoptimist @ 9/1 E/W BOG u/p 3.20 Wolverhampton: Tyrur Ted @ 14/1 E/W BOG N/R 4.30 Kempton: Khawatim @ 5/4 BOG N/R Edited January 7, 201313 yr by Traf
January 7, 201313 yr Author A couple of fancied non-runners put paid to any profit today, but only a small loss on these. 3pts out, 2.75pts back.
January 8, 201313 yr Author 8/1/13 1.55 Chepstow: Laflammedeglorie @ 100/30 BOG PU Edited January 8, 201313 yr by Traf
January 9, 201313 yr Author 9/1/13 2.05 Lingfield: Crew Cut (no bet if over 12/1 SP) 3.25 Doncaster: Vosges @ 7/1 E/W BOG Edited January 9, 201313 yr by Traf
January 9, 201313 yr Author Traf the 2.05at ling are you saying go for max bet mate? Ah, no. I've lifted that straight from my own notes for today: it's a note I made for myself telling me not to back it if it's over 12/1 just before the off. I've amended my original post. ie 12/1 is my max price. (it's from a stat-based selection process, as opposed to a form-based one! I'm more than happy to explain the rationale if anyone's ever interested) I'm also backing these: 12.30 Lingfield: Onewayoranother @ 11/10 BOG 3.15 Lingfield: Island Express @ 20/1 E/W BOG Edited January 9, 201313 yr by Traf
January 9, 201313 yr Author OK, here goes... Racing trainers are pretty much set in their ways and rarely vary their training tactics from one year to the next. It's also impossible to keep thier horses in top condition all year round and their yard will be "in form" at a specific time of year in correspondence with their training methods. Jeremy Gask's horses tend to go very well in January, In January alone (2009-13) All races 13 winners from 65 races = 20% strike rate and 16pts profit ie at £10/race: £650 total stakes, £810 returned = £160 profit (24.6% profit) 26/65 were successful as E/W bets = 40% Strike rate. These produced 24pts profit (18.5% profit) If you only backed these horses when they ran at odds between 13/8 and 12/1: 12/43 winners = 27.9% and 36.5pts (84.9%) profit 21/43 E/W success = 48.8% and 46.6pts (54.2%) profit Handicap races only 12/54 = 22.2% and 25.5pts (47.22%) profit 22/54 E/W success = 40.7% and 36pts (33.33%) profit Handicaps at odds of 13/8 to 12/1 12/37 = 32.4% and 42.5pts (114.9%) profit 19/37 E/W success = 51.4% and 52.1pts (70.4%) profit Therefore, you shoud back all Jeremy Gask's horses when running in handicap races in January when their Starting Price is between 13/8 and 12/1 Of course you don't know the SP before the race starts, but you can generally make a good guess whther it'll fall in the required odds parameters.
January 9, 201313 yr Author Cheers for that Traf, some interesting points brought out No problem, happy to help. It's what I spend most of my day doing anyway!
January 9, 201313 yr Author 9/1/13 12.30 Lingfield: Onewayoranother @ 11/10 BOG won at 2/1 1.55 Ludlow: In The Crowd @ 9/1 E/W BOG u/p 2.05 Lingfield: Crew Cut (no bet if over 12/1 SP) NO BET 3.15 Lingfield: Island Express @ 20/1 E/W BOG 3rd at 33/1 3.25 Doncaster: Vosges @ 7/1 E/W BOG u/p Lost 1pt there. Needed Island Express to hold onto 2nd place. That way I'd have been 3.63pts up. As somebody once said: "the margins are very fine..."
January 10, 201313 yr Author Cheers, pal. I'm just a bore who loves to crunch numbers. Some people like to sit and watch films for two hours at a time, each to their own!
January 10, 201313 yr Author 1.25 Lingfield: Jermatt @ 6/1 E/W BOG 2.15 Catterick: King Fontaine @ Betfair SP (9/1 BOG is available, though) 2.55 Lingfield: Exkaliber (12/1 max price) Edited January 10, 201313 yr by Traf
January 10, 201313 yr Author OK, it's got a bit messy, so I'll put them all together now, as I don't think there'll be more. 10/01/13 1.25 Lingfield: Jermatt @ 6/1 E/W BOG 2nd 2.15 Catterick: Pentiffic @ 6/1 BOG u/p 2.15 Catterick: King Fontaine @ Betfair SP (9/1 BOG is available, though) u/p 2.55 Lingfield: Exkaliber (12/1 max price) NO BET 6.45 Kempton: Red Somerset @ 13.0 / 5.0 (Betfair) u/p Edited January 11, 201313 yr by Traf
January 11, 201313 yr Author Not good yesterday. 11/01/13 5.30 Wolverhampton: Elegant Ophelia @ 5/2 BOG More later, I expect.
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