May 9, 201313 yr Author Cheers Traf This is a tip from my mate at John G's stables so fingers crossed
May 9, 201313 yr Cheers Traf This is a tip from my mate at John G's stables so fingers crossed Same source as last seasons winners? 5/2 on betfair at present.
May 10, 201313 yr Only Paddy Power have 5/2 now. 9/4 or 2/1 elsewhere: http://odds.geegeez.co.uk/horse-racing/2013-05-10/ascot/18-30/betting/ Edited May 10, 201313 yr by Traf
May 10, 201313 yr what are your thoughts on it Traf? - would it be one that you would give due consideration to had Widders not mentioned it?
May 10, 201313 yr Firstly, it's not a race i would have had a bet on normally for several reasons. 1. It's a fillies race and just like women, fillies are unpredictable and erratic and prone to mood swings, due to hormones etc. (i know I'm going to bollocked for that bit!) 2. It's a maiden, so there's little / no form to work from 3. Almost half of the filed have either never raced or not raced this year. However, if the source of the info is the same as was feeding Widnes last year, that alone warrants a small flutter. Secondly, the market have it spot on ToTT and Bohemaian Dance should be the first two home and ours beat BD last time out . The ground was probably too soft on debut and this should suit better. Decent jockey on board too. I've had a small punt on it at 11/4, I really wanted at least 3/1, but beggars can't always be choosers.
May 10, 201313 yr PS It might sound arsey that i wanted 3/1 and not 11/4, but betting is all about value and perceived value. The horse is, in my opinion, a 3/1+ shot in this race and you don't normally want to back 3/1 shots at 11/4. A 3/1 shot should win 1 in 4 races, so if you back it at 11/4, you lose money in the long run and break even at 3/1. So, if you consider a horse to be a 3/1 shot, you really want 100/30 on it. A simple analogy is this: I invite you to have a bet on the toss of a coin. We all know it's a 50/50 call ie even money. If I offer you 10/11, you'll lose money eventually. You'll break even at evens, so you really need to be offered 11/10 to make the bet a value option.
May 10, 201313 yr Just pipped on the line by a horse that came from nowhere. Unlucky really as it looked to have run a pretty good race
June 14, 201313 yr Author My man at Goslin's has provided me with the following Ascot information Elusive Kate runs on Tuesday, I'm a bit concerned about an American horse running in the same race but I don't think it will be familiar with Ascot so I'm hoping Kate will do the jon Also, Woodland Aria on Wednesday Sorry, but as usual the thick twat hasn't given me any race times, sure Traf will step in with the details
June 14, 201313 yr Elusive Kate runs in the Queen Anne Stakes at 2.30 on Tuesday. Currently 9/1 third favourite behind the American Animal Kingdom who offers no value at all at 4/6 and is worth laying especially if it gets any shorter. EK is also entered in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at 3.05 on Wednesday, but the preference is the Tuesday race. Woodland Aria runs in the 5.35 on Wednesday in a one mile listed fillies race, but also holds a secondary entry in the 3.05 on Thursday over a mile and a half, but you should expect to see her on Wednesday as Mr Widnes said. Re: Royal Ascot, I've got a shed load of stuff to post next week for anyone who is interested.
June 14, 201313 yr Author Well my man looks after both horses so if EK runs on Tuesday and WA Wednesday I would ignore any other races it's entered for
June 14, 201313 yr However I shall double check with the Irish gobshite No, Tues for EK and Weds for WA is the plan. It's customary to have a back up plan, though, just in case.
June 15, 201313 yr Author I was in Ireland for Paddy's day and had a conversation with him about horses, he said that nobody really knows how a horse will do until about 5 mins before the off, reckons that's why all the money goes on Betfair in the 2 mins before off as it's all information coming out of the stables I know fuck all about horses so I'm only passing on information In which case, take it as a pinch of salt but he seems to know what he is talking about so I post it on here
June 15, 201313 yr Elusive Kate runs in the Queen Anne Stakes at 2.30 on Tuesday. Currently 9/1 third favourite behind the American Animal Kingdom who offers no value at all at 4/6 and is worth laying especially if it gets any shorter. EK is also entered in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at 3.05 on Wednesday, but the preference is the Tuesday race. Woodland Aria runs in the 5.35 on Wednesday in a one mile listed fillies race, but also holds a secondary entry in the 3.05 on Thursday over a mile and a half, but you should expect to see her on Wednesday as Mr Widnes said. Re: Royal Ascot, I've got a shed load of stuff to post next week for anyone who is interested. I'm very interested re: Ascot please Traf. I'm down there for the Friday and likely to have a few bets before that. My betting record is poor so as usual for the big meets I'll probably be following the majority of what you post on here
June 16, 201313 yr Author EK is definitely running on Tuesday not Wednesday Looks like a good EW bet of you can get 7/2 without AK He's also given me another one called Remote He's very excited about EK though and says it's almost a certainty
June 16, 201313 yr Remote is a good prospect indeed. One of Khaild Abdullah's. I've some interesting (to some people anyway!) stats about John Gosdens Ascot runners that I'll dig out later.
June 16, 201313 yr When does Romote run Traf? Thursday, mate. Entered in the 4.25 over a mile and also entered in the 5.00 over a mile and a quarter. He's won over both trips in his last two outings, so we'll have to see.
June 16, 201313 yr Author I'll ask him to confirm, is there a market for laying the race it doesn't run in? I
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