Traf Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Have you priced Gills vs Wolves tonight Traf? I price wolves at about 2.5 so am pretty tempted to lay them at 1.7, gives me the draw on my side then. I was out all afternoon/evening, so I didn't see your post, but I had it as Gills 3.65 Draw 3.75 Wolves 2.15 Do you know what the actual odds were? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 (edited) I've priced the 7 league 2 games up for Saturday and they look a bit strange this week! The layout is: Name of Match / My Home Odds (Odds Available) / My Draw Odds (Odds Available) / My Away Odds (Odds Available) Cheltenham v Chesterfield : 3.05 (2.88) / 3.45 (3.40) / 2.60 (2.75) Chesterfield appear to be over priced by 5.8%, but not enough there for me really. postponed Exeter v Mansfield: 2.60 (2.25) / 3.83 (3.50) / 2.85 (3.50) The value is with Mansfield who are 23.2% longer than I expected. Only 6pts between the 2 teams, so odds of 3.50 are worth a punt. Mansfield won 1-0 Newport v Northampton: 2.55 (1.83) / 3.40 (3.90) / 3.15 (4.60) Both the draw (+14.7%) and the away win (+46%) look massive, but that's only because Newport are priced so meanly.I'd be leaving this one, unless you fancied a very small lay on the home team. Northampton won 2-1! Portsmouth v Accrington: 2.28 (2.00) / 3.30 (3.30) / 3.90 (3.40) No value at all here postponed anyway! Torquay v Morecambe: 2.70 (2.60) / 3.40 (3.40) / 2.95 (3.10) There's a little bit of value in the price on Morecambe, but 5% doesn't excite me enough to get involved. draw Wycombe v AFC Wimbledon: 2.30 (2.38) / 3.55 (3.50) / 3.50 (3.30) The away team are again about 6% over priced, but still no good to me.Wimbledon won 3-0 York v Dagenham: 2.50 (2.30) / 3.50 (3.50) / 3.15 (3.40) Daggers are 8% over where I thought they'd be. I normally want 10%, but I'll play this one. Dagenham lost 3-1 Edited January 4, 2014 by Traf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Horwich Posted January 4, 2014 Moderators Share Posted January 4, 2014 Todays mom Blackburn vs Man city Silva 8/1 Negredo 7/1 Dzeko 8/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magic legs Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I think Leeds at Rochdale look decent odds today at just under evens - usually a good cup team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Happy enough with my analysis today. Backed Mansfield & Dagenham as singles for a profit of 1.5pts and had a cheeky fiver on Northampton, as 4.60 was far too big to ignore in the end. All in all, a good day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ex_midlandwhite Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I was out all afternoon/evening, so I didn't see your post, but I had it as Gills 3.65 Draw 3.75 Wolves 2.15 Do you know what the actual odds were? No can't remember all the prices for the market, Wolves could be layed at 1.69 on Betfair though which was a big enough margin. Nice work on Mansfield and Northampton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Cheers, mate. I've actually made quite a few quid on the League 2 always this season and I'm happy to put them up each week if people want them. I do them for myself anyway, so it's no great hardship to share my thoughts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 8, 2014 Author Share Posted January 8, 2014 (edited) Had a bit of spare time this afternoon, so I started compiling my lists. The caveat is that clubs might bring players in before the weekend, but that's life. I'll start with the Premier League, but I should warn you that it's my poorest performer generally. The top clubs are always too short, because the bookies are shit scared of top 4 accas etc. This makes for a lot of value prices for away teams and whilst they might look like stupid bets, they do occasionally come in. Anyway, the Barclays Premier League Villa v Arsenal: At 6.5, Villa are massively (+62.5% IMO) overpriced and represent good value against an injury-hit Arsenal team. Arsenal are underpriced by 20.6% and the draw offers some small value at +6.5% A Villa win is the value bet, or just lay Arsenal at 1.62 Cardiff v West Ham: West Ham (despite recent shite) are still overpriced by 33.6% at 3.90, but unless Allardyce is sacked (causing a brief upturn in form), it's a no bet for me. Everton v Norwich: Everton are just 4.8% shorter than I'd expect as is the draw (-3.7%) and I don't really want to play unless there's 10% for any game, so I can't get involved with either scenario there. I had Norwich as 15/2 to win the game, which is massive anyway, but you can get 9/1, which is really good value. Probably a poor bet, but the value is with Norwich for small stakes. Fulham v Sunderland: No Value here, Fulham are -5.9%, the draw is -1.7% and Sunderland are +5.3%. I fancy Sunderland to win, but I'll leave it unless I can get 11/4. Got 14/5 with Bet365 Hull v Chelsea: As with the Villa game, the "Big Club" is way too short at 1.62. With both Hull at +21.5% and the draw at +17.3%, you could back both options with small stakes or just lay Chelsea at 1.62 Man United v Swansea: United aren't much shorter (just 5%) than I had them and I agree with the bookies' 7.25 about the Swans, but the draw is available at 7/2 and I had it as 3/1, so maybe a small stakes bet on the draw. Newcastle v Man City: City again shorter than I'd like (by some 15%), but this means you can get 9/2 on Newcastle to win at home. City can't win every game, so I'll back Newcastle here. (BTTS too probably!) Southampton v West Brom: Nothing doing here. Neither Soton (-7.1%) nor WBA (+8.5%) offer enough value to get me interested. Stoke v Liverpool: Stoke are massive (+40%) here at 5/, whilst 3/1 for the draw is also appealing. Lay Liverpool at 1.67 and hope Suarez forgets to turn up. Tottenham v Crystal Palace: Palace should be 6/1 in my eyes, but you can have 10/1, whilst the draw is 4/1 instead of 16/5, so decent value there. This all means Spurs are way underpriced at 1.36. I'd have thought 1.6 to 1.65 was more reasonable, so I'll lay Spurs at 1.36. I wouldn't be surprised if I get my arse handed to me from these, but you never know. I'll hopefully fare better with the Football League. Edited January 11, 2014 by Traf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Norpig Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Traf, post your Football league picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Has anyone ever seen after38 website before?http://after38.com/Default.aspx Found it the other day and they do some price calculations using their own ratings. Never used it for betting or anything but it may be of interest apart from if people look at our predicted finish for this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magic legs Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Forest to win, both teams to score, 4/1. Ipswich to beat QPR 2/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 Has anyone ever seen after38 website before? http://after38.com/Default.aspx Found it the other day and they do some price calculations using their own ratings. Never used it for betting or anything but it may be of interest apart from if people look at our predicted finish for this season. I have us at 17th too, but on 60pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 Traf, post your Football league picks. CHAMPIONSHIP: Blackburn v Doncaster: No perceived value for me. Blackpool v Middlesbrough: I had the home team at 6/4, so 2/1 is very good. Home Win Bolton v Forest: I have us at 6/4, so 2.8 is a good price = Home Win Brighton v Birmingham: Brighton are massively underpriced, so either back the away team at 4/1 (should be around 5/2 IMO) or lay Brighton at 1.83 Charlton v Barnsley: No value Huddersfield v Millwall: No Value Ipswich v QPR: QPR are overpriced by about 18%, but Ipswich aren't quite long enough for me to back even at 2/1. The draw is appealing, though at 3.3, as is a lay of QPR at 2.6 Leicester v Derby: The value lies with Derby, who I had at 3.57. They can be backed at 3.75, which still isn't long enough for me. No bet, unless I can get 3.93 or better. Sheff Wed v Leeds: Not enough in it to warrant a selection Watford v Reading: The home and the away prices are pretty much as i expected to within 3%, but the draw looks very short at just 3.6. Not one for me, but you could lay the draw. Wigan v Bournemouth: Wigan are 14.5% too short, the draw is 8% long and the away team is a massive 24% higher than I expected. Back Bournemouth at 4/1 or lay Wigan at 1.85 Yeovil v Burnley: Not enough in this one for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ex_midlandwhite Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I've been looking at the Championship earlier, I also think Brighton and Wigan are value lays, I have Charlton in that list too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 LEAGUE ONE: Bradford v Bristol City: The value lies with the away team (+7%), but not enough for me. Brentford v Port Vale: No-brainer home win on paper, but I can't back them at 1.53. Port Vale aren't a bad side and I reckon they're a 4/1 to 17/4 shot here, so I'd be tempted with a small bet on them at 13/2 Colchester v Gillingham: Both the home and the draw are shorter than expected, meaning Gills are 12% above where I thought they'd be, small punt at 3.20 Coventry v Crawley (Sunday): Both playing away and no value in sight. Leyton Orient v Carlisle: Carlisle are +7%, but probably because the O's are a touch too short. No Bet MK Dons v Shrewsbury: league table says home win, but there's not much between them and at 9/2 Shrewsbury are worth backing. Notts County v Sheffield United: Battle of the strugglers, the away team are a better outfit and are 13% longer than I thought they'd be. Back Sheff Utd at 2.60 Oldham v Stevenage: Just 5pts between them and Oldham should never be as short as 1.87 for any home league game this season. Lay them at 1.87 or Back Stevenage at 4.75 (massive at +20%) Rotherham v Crewe: Rotherham are a bit short (-15%) at 1.57, the draw is about right,but Crewe at big at 6/1 (+55%). The value is on a Crewe win, but I can't see it happening. No Bet, unless you want a small lay on the home team. Swindon v Peterborough: Swindon are only 5pts behind Posh and should be odds on for this. 11/8 is very generous IMO: Back Swindon at 2.38 Tranmere v Walsall: the bookies prices seem about right to me, the furthest disagreement we have is that Tranmere are too short at 3/1. You could lay them, I suppose. Wolves v Preston: Little between these two, but Wolves areas underpriced (23%) as PNE are overpriced, Even the draw is too long by about 10%. Lay Wolves at 2.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 What do you do for a staking plan Traf? Do you go off the percentage the price is out by or just use your discretion? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Norpig Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 cheers Traf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 What do you do for a staking plan Traf? Do you go off the percentage the price is out by or just use your discretion? Always level stakes on singles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 cheers Traf. No worries, I'll get league 2 up later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 (edited) Pushed for time today, so a brief look at League 2 Accrington aren't quite long enough at 2.90 to beat Newport = NO BET AFC Wimbledon should beat Torquay easily, but there's no value in the 5/4 price tag, Torquay at 3.80 is a good value proposition though. Bristol R v Exeter: no value Burton v Cheltenham: nothing here either Chesterfield are shorter than they should be v Bury, who in turn are longer, but NO BET Dagenham v Fleetwood: Marginal preference for Gonzo's mob, but not enough to risk money on. Hartlepool v Rochdale: Rochdale to win, but not long enough to back them. Mansfield v Scunthorpe: The home team are quite long at 3.1, but I'd want at least 3.2 before I could back them = NO BET Morecambe v Wycombe: For Wycombe, see Mansfield above Northampton v York: Nothing here either Oxford v Portsmouth: This should be a home banker and 2.15 is about right, but Portsmouth should be much longer than 3.75, so lay them. Plymouth v Southend: Lay Plymouth at 2.7 The prices have changed quite a bit from yesterday in this league, rendering most of my time spent on it useless. I laid Northampton at 2.4 yesterday and now they're 2.9 and I backed Accrington at 3.2 to beat Newport, purely because I had them at 2.65. They're now 2.9, which isn't quite long enough. Sod's Law also dictates now that I've done a whole 4-league programme, match by match, that it all goes tits up and I get my arse kicked. Edited January 11, 2014 by Traf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ex_midlandwhite Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Sod's Law also dictates now that I've done a whole 4-league programme, match by match, that it all goes tits up and I get my arse kicked. But we have to play the averages, the good weeks outnumber the bad is the plan, but then you know that I'm going to have a proper look through tonight. Traf does your work easily transfer to over/unders market and BTTS? I have been pricing those up and look for cases where I can get better than evens but where I think the probability is better than 60%. Over 2,5 and BTTS-No have been profitable so far since the end of September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 Overs/BTTS is usually good with the aways, even if they don't win the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magic legs Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 (edited) No Rooney or RVP tomorrow but you can still get 19/5 on Swansea DNB with Ladbrokes. Edited January 10, 2014 by magic legs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Horwich Posted January 10, 2014 Moderators Share Posted January 10, 2014 Thought one of em was playing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magic legs Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jan/10/wayne-rooney-warm-weather-recuperation-injury-manchester-united Don't think Moyes is a bullshitter like red nose was but we will see tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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