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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

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  • 3 weeks later...
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Posted

2 for today

 

back as singles and a double

 

2nd one might also be worth back ew (not sure of the odds)

 

the 2nd one will be a very good horse on the AW this season

 

2.30 heavens walk

3.30 marinaite

 

 

both southwell

Posted
2 for today

 

back as singles and a double

 

2nd one might also be worth back ew (not sure of the odds)

 

the 2nd one will be a very good horse on the AW this season

 

2.30 heavens walk

 

both southwell

 

1st horse u/p 7/2f

  • 3 weeks later...
Posted

the big tip

 

not saying this will win but it shouldnt be the price it is after you read this write up

 

If you were to believe the hype, the Martin Pipe trained Celestial Gold has already won Saturday???s Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Newbury.  Ladbrokes have made the Paddy Power Gold Cup winner 11/4 favourite (from 8/1 2 weeks ago) for the Grade 3 Handicap Chase, but there are better betting options out there.  Celestial Gold has had an impressive career to date, with 3 wins and a second place from 6 outings, but if you look closer there are doubts over this horse.

 

Three times he has run on ground slightly softer than good (the current ground at Newbury), and he was well beaten in two of these races, winning the other (a very poor Novice Chase) by a short head.  Those two bad races were also the only two occasions on which Celestial Gold has tackled a flat track ??? he certainly seems to run best on undulating tracks such as Cheltenham.

 

But enough about the ante-post favourite, and why he will be beaten.  Who is going to win the race?  The answer to this question, I believe, will make you very happy.  Because the horse that can win the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup is currently available at prices up to 40/1.  The horse in question is Swansea Bay, who will find conditions at Newbury absolutely perfect.

 

Swansea Bay is, primarily, a horse who acts (unlike Celestial Gold) on flat tracks.  Compare his record on flat tracks to his record on undulating tracks and you will see an obvious pattern.

 

Record on flat tracks : 241021111116P1111716 (12/20, 60%)  

Record on undulating tracks : 2643846462 (0/10, 0%)

 

A very impressive record on flat tracks, I???m sure you will agree, but not enough to make this outsider such a strong bet.  Now compare Swansea Bay???s record on left-handed tracks and right-handed tracks.

 

Record on left-handed tracks : 2641421111611461 (8/16, 50%)

Record on right-handed tracks : 24308116P11726 (4/14, 29%)

 

Undoubtedly, Swansea Bay is most likely to run well on a flat, left-handed track.  Luckily for us, that is exactly what he will find at Newbury on Saturday.  If we go further, and look at his record on flat, left-handed tracks we find an astonishing record.

 

Record on flat, left-handed tracks : 121111111 (8/9, 89%)

 

Swansea Bay is a horse who is almost unbeatable under the conditions that he faces in the Hennessy yet, because of two bad runs on tracks that did not suit him, we are being offered 40/1 for a horse who has proven ability over trip, going and class of race!

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
my dad's had a phone call from his bookie mate from wales.

 

 

get on daguyda 3.10 Ludlow

 

ew if over 5/1

 

or a place on betfair

 

10am 12/1 in dones

 

1pm 15/2

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