F A O Bolty Et Al

[Traf]

Interesting piece on the draw bias at Chester here: http://www.geegeez.co.uk/well-i-declare-8th-may-2012/

[bolty58]

Good read that mate. So the 5f race, Confessional and Tax Free look like the ones to be on then?

 

Have to keep a watching brief on place dividends.

[Traf]

Yes, i'd have thought so, especially to be placed.

[richbwfc]

Cheers Traf. I think I remember last year you saying course form is very important at Chester too?

[QFPants]

Top info traf. Had only really looked at the 'Stat of the day' info on the site; must make more effort to view the rest of the site

[Traf]

Cheers Traf. I think I remember last year you saying course form is very important at Chester too?

 

It is important, so if you find a horse with form on the course and a good draw, then Bob's your uncle.

[Traf]

Top info traf. Had only really looked at the 'Stat of the day' info on the site; must make more effort to view the rest of the site

 

I'm obviously biased, as the site pays my wages, but it really is a good racing site.

[Ani]

I'm obviously biased, as the site pays my wages, but it really is a good racing site.

I'm obviously biased, as the site pays my wages, but it really is a good racing site.

 

Traf, here is an interesting one for you, i have a theory that the draw as a benefit is so well known it can drag odds down.

 

Since the change in the straight where the running rail now drops away it is easier for horses to pass in the straight so the value of the draw is more than reflected in the odds so the value comes from going slightly higher in the draw.

 

Do your stats show return per ?1 stake based on draw since the course was altered ? wonder if it has changed at all.

 

We go to chester at least once a year and a couple of years ago when it rained it seemed a lot more horses were getting passed in straight than in the good old days. My first ever 4 winner yankeee was based on back low draws at chester, think i put ?1.50 on a lucky 15.

[bolty58]

Good bit of info right there Ani. I didn't know the Roodee course had been changed.

 

I remember a day there before I left for Oz where we singled out 3 bets only with C & D form with good barrier draws. Oddly, it was in the 80's yet I still remember 2 of the horses (all 3 won). The first was in the first and called What Speed, trained by Sir Mark Prescott I think, and the second was in the feature race and was called Limerick Lady trained by Reg Hollinshead.

 

A mine of useless information!

 

Only recounted to reinforce the horses for courses argument which was always very relevant at Chester.

[Traf]

There is a slight drop in the average SP returned from low drawn winners, but this is more than compensated by taking early BOG prices or using Betfair SP.