November 23, 20169 yr ONE WOULD EXPECT/HOPE SO BASED ON THE MARKET, BUT WHY? Tip from the owner to a mate who banged a load on it. Only came 3rd! I didn't participate but my business partner did bob a few quid on it.
November 23, 20169 yr old favourite of mine out tomorrow at Thurles, Champagne Fever A cracking looking race, Lord Windermere's in there, too! Edited November 23, 20169 yr by Traf
November 24, 20169 yr Author old favourite of mine out tomorrow at Thurles, Champagne FeverI'd not be queuing up for a bet in that - the one horse with a recent run has getting on for 3 stone to find on official ratings! I've had a bit on Relentless Dreamer in the 1.45 novice chase at Taunton. He's up in the weights with an absence to overcome but the opposition doesn't look up to much and he's got plenty of experience over fences for an in-form yard. Worth a couple of quid, I reckon.
November 24, 20169 yr It's a bit of a bugbear of mine, that. Horses up in weight despite a layoff, especially when it didn't even win LTO.
November 24, 20169 yr Great race at Thurles. No idea what to take from it, mind. CF needs to drop back in trip, only just got home. Lord Windermere ran a big race and wants 3m Wounded Warrior ran well after a layoff, but a bad mistake knocked the stuffing out of him.
November 24, 20169 yr Author CF needs to drop back in trip, only just got home. Lord Windermere ran a big race and wants 3m Wounded Warrior ran well after a layoff, but a bad mistake knocked the stuffing out of him. Aye, on the face of it. The third was 20lb 'wrong' at the weights, though, and it's easier to think the first two have a long way to go to be considered owt like back to their best than to think Roi des Francs has improved past them. Probable that the truth is somewhere in the middle.
November 24, 20169 yr I'd not be queuing up for a bet in that - the one horse with a recent run has getting on for 3 stone to find on official ratings! I've had a bit on Relentless Dreamer in the 1.45 novice chase at Taunton. He's up in the weights with an absence to overcome but the opposition doesn't look up to much and he's got plenty of experience over fences for an in-form yard. Worth a couple of quid, I reckon. Didn't want to lead people to it or away from it, but it was a good call. I backed it last night at what I thought was a good price (11/2). The drift out to 8/1 was both surprising and very welcome, especially as bet365 will now pay out at 17/2.
November 24, 20169 yr Traf (or others) Out of interest if a particular market does drift pretty significantly does that ever put you off backing it?
November 24, 20169 yr Author There are plenty of horses who are backed as if defeat is out of the question only to make mugs of punters following the money, and plenty who outrun odds that had been drifting like a barge before the flag. It always worries me more when the drift is significantly more pronounced on the exchanges.
November 25, 20169 yr Author Decent racing at Newbury today. One Track Mind ought to win the novice chase at 1.35 if his hurdling form translates to fences, but he's not run for seven months and he's yet to jump a fence in public. I'd rather take a big price about the outsider of the five runners, Our Kaempfer. He wasn't too far behind the favourite on official ratings over hurdles and he's already beaten the second favourite on worse terms this season. I'm struggling to see why he's a 10/1 chance. I wasn't particularly taken by Ballyoptic before he fell at Wetherby last time and prefer Unowhatimeanharry to take last season's progressive form into a new campaign in the Long Distance Hurdle at 2.10. His yard has been going well and he has a decent record first time out. The handicap chase at 2.45 looks fairly competitive but I've had a bit on Double Shuffle, who was well fancied at Cheltenham the other week before the ground went against him. He should go better today with conditions likely to be much more in his favour and could be a big price at around 8/1.
November 25, 20169 yr Decent racing at Newbury today. One Track Mind ought to win the novice chase at 1.35 if his hurdling form translates to fences, but he's not run for seven months and he's yet to jump a fence in public. I'd rather take a big price about the outsider of the five runners, Our Kaempfer. He wasn't too far behind the favourite on official ratings over hurdles and he's already beaten the second favourite on worse terms this season. I'm struggling to see why he's a 10/1 chance. I wasn't particularly taken by Ballyoptic before he fell at Wetherby last time and prefer Unowhatimeanharry to take last season's progressive form into a new campaign in the Long Distance Hurdle at 2.10. His yard has been going well and he has a decent record first time out. The handicap chase at 2.45 looks fairly competitive but I've had a bit on Double Shuffle, who was well fancied at Cheltenham the other week before the ground went against him. He should go better today with conditions likely to be much more in his favour and could be a big price at around 8/1. took the first one without the favourite neednt have bothered as the favourite was as good as you thought he might be OK had a decent run but beat by a good un thumbs up for uknowhatimean, i can eat tionight lets see how we do with DS
November 25, 20169 yr enzo knows nowt seriously, most notable thing looked like stilleto has run his last
November 25, 20169 yr Author Just had an interest tickle on Double ShuffleYou should have just had a double shuffle.
November 25, 20169 yr You should have just had a double shuffle. Aye, maybe It was a cracking finish to the race though
November 26, 20169 yr Traf (or others) Out of interest if a particular market does drift pretty significantly does that ever put you off backing it? Not at all.
November 26, 20169 yr Author Antony looks like he's got plenty more improvement in him so I'll take him for the 1.30 at Newbury at around 7/1. That makes Saphir du Rheu difficult to ignore in the Hennessy at 9/1. The Fighting Fifth at Newcastle looks competitive despite a small field but Sceau Royal's form going into the race makes him the obvious one, though the opposition has plenty of scope for improvement and he won't be much of a price. I like Bristol de Mai in the Rehearsal Chase on the same card at around 9/2.
December 3, 20169 yr Author Like The Young Master and Seventh Sky over the big fences at Aintree today. Tingle Creek looks a cracking race but I fancy it could suit God's Own.
December 9, 20169 yr Author For Good Measure is going to be this season's horse to back every run bar the race he finally wins. At a million to one.
December 10, 20169 yr Hong Kong international races tomorrow. For the Vase, can't see anyone beating Highland Reel, easy double your money
December 10, 20169 yr Author I don't think I'd be rushing to oppose him. Plenty with chances in the big handicap at Cheltenham. Village Vic could jump them daft but he'd have to be some horse to win carrying 11-12. I thought Frodon was running a decent race last time before jumping slipped his mind - he's getting lumps of weight and is worth another try at 11/1. I'd have thought Aso would want it to bucket down, and Buywise is odds on to run on for place money when the race is all but over. I think you could chance an outsider in the novice hurdle, so I'm having a bob on Impulsive Star.
December 10, 20169 yr I don't think I'd be rushing to oppose him. Plenty with chances in the big handicap at Cheltenham. Village Vic could jump them daft but he'd have to be some horse to win carrying 11-12. I thought Frodon was running a decent race last time before jumping slipped his mind - he's getting lumps of weight and is worth another try at 11/1. I'd have thought Aso would want it to bucket down, and Buywise is odds on to run on for place money when the race is all but over. I think you could chance an outsider in the novice hurdle, so I'm having a bob on Impulsive Star. Good shout on the 13.50, can you post earlier next week though as I'd had my bets on before you posted this! I'm doing profit maximiser and I covered 22 races across a load of bookies today and tonight and I didn't trigger a single free bet. Fucking wounded! When I needed a second place it won and when I wanted a win it was nowhere to be seen.
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