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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

Cheltenham Festival 2014


L/H White

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Guest bwfcdan

Akram died in the last race. Depressing end to the day, similar to Our Conor yesterday. Always ruins it for me when deaths occur.

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Watering? Fucking watering?

 

It's Cheltenham in March, not fucking Goodwood in August.

 

There are horses running who are half a stone better on quicker ground - their connections will be thrilled, I'm sure.

 

Why not just stick 20mm on, start racing at three o clock and pretend it's still January?

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Day off today so any stand outs traff? First bet of the week

 

any tips today traf?

 

No tips for Cheltenham, All horses are trying their best and as such it makes picking winners more difficult, which is why I've had little input to this thread.

I'm doing OK so far this week, up by around 75pts, but I wouldn't want to jinx it by going public with my selections. Mind you, I only decide which to back 5 mins before the off, so I wouldn't have time to share.

 

But do bear in mind that a 6/1 winner at Cheltenham only pays the same as a 6/1 winner at Wolverhampton, but the latter is easier to find.

 

That said (and I've only just started looking at today's card), Felix Yonger should win the opener if things go to plan, but he's only 7/2. 

Edited by Traf
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Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Listed)

 

Course – Cheltenham

Distance – 3 miles

Date – Thur March 13th

Average field size last 10 years – 23.5

 

Positive Trends

 

Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 10/1 or bigger.

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners came from 5th to 10th in the betting.

LTO price: Horses that were 14/1 or bigger LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.

LTO market rank: 7 of the last 10 winners were 6th or bigger in the betting market LTO.

Trainers:  2 wins for David Pipe and Jonjo O’Neill.

 

Negative Trends

 

Favourites: 0 wins from 10.

Top four in betting (inc. joints): 0 wins from 45.

Course winners: Just 1 win from 51.

Weights: Just 1 win from 58 for top 5 of the weights.

Official rating: Horses rated 143 or more have provided 0 winners from 39.

Runs in last year: Horses that had raced 3 times or less in the last year have provided 0 winners from 45 (just 3 placed).

Career win percentage: Horses with a career win percentage of over 25% have provided just 2 winners from 94.

Breeding:  French breds have provided 0 winners from 39.

 

Key Bullet points - look for:

 

Price 10/1 or bigger

Run at least 4 times in the last year

Career win percentage of 25% or under

 

Other positives - ideally look for:

 

14/1 or bigger LTO

Edited by Traf
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World Hurdle (Grade 1)

 

Course – Cheltenham

Distance – 3 miles

Date – Thur March 13th

Average field size last 10 years – 13.8

 

Positive Trends

 

Price: 8 of the last winners were priced 6/1 or shorter.

Career win percentage: Horses with a career win percentage of over 40% have provided all of the last 10 winners.

LTO price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter LTO.

Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners won LTO.

Recent win:  All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last two starts.

Official Rating: 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 157 or higher.

Age:  All of the last 10 winners were aged 6 to 9.

 

Negative Trends

 

Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have won 0 races from 91.

Age: 0 wins from 14 for horses 10 or older.

Recent win: Horses that had failed to win at least one race in their last two starts have provided 0 winners from 69.

LTO position: Horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO have provided 0 winners and just 1 placed runner from 61.

Breeding: Irish breds are 0 from 58.

Runs in last 90 days: Horses that had run 3 or more times in the last 90 days have provided 0 winners from 27 (just 2 placed).

Runs in last year: Horses that had run 6 or more times in the last year have provided just 1 winner and 5 placed horses from 59.

 

General Trends

 

Favourites: 4 wins from 10.

 

Key Bullet points - look for:

 

1st LTO (won at least one of last two)

Run twice or less in last 90 days

Run 5 times or less in last year

Career win percentage of over 40%

Aged 6-9

Rated 157 or higher

LTO price 6/1 or shorter.

 

 

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3.20 Cheltenham - best trends fit

More Of That (IRE)

Annie Power (IRE)

At Fishers Cross (IRE)

 

 

Fukinell Traf are you psychic

 

 

Thought that myself! All 3 in the right order!!!!!

 

 

I had 1st and 2nd tother way round with fishers cross, take my hat off mate....any numbers for this weeks lotto?

 

Hey, I'm not just fucking playing at it! :D

 

It "only" paid 95/1 anyway.

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