I know it's early but...

 

Early News

 

Sir Des Champs out for the season

 

Bobs Worth being backed here for the Gold Cup

Edited January 3, 201412 yr by Ryan

One death is one too many.

 

That's the 23rd this year.

One death is one too many.

 

That's the 23rd this year.

Terrible stat that. Don't like thinking about it.

Then you'll not like the fact that 1072 have died in the last 7 years.

An average of 3 per week.

Day off today so any stand outs traff? First bet of the week

Watering? Fucking watering?

 

It's Cheltenham in March, not fucking Goodwood in August.

 

There are horses running who are half a stone better on quicker ground - their connections will be thrilled, I'm sure.

 

Why not just stick 20mm on, start racing at three o clock and pretend it's still January?

last race let me down yesterday for a tote place pot, favourite too ridden by ruby walsh

any tips today traf?

3 winners and 2 second places yesterday.

Was still only £2 up on the day!

The 2nd places were both by a whiskers tit as well.

Edited March 13, 201412 yr by Smiley

last race let me down yesterday for a tote place pot, favourite too ridden by ruby walsh

Ruby finished second on the favourite in the last yesterday.

3:20

 

More of that 10/1 EW

1.30 Oscar Whisky

2.05 Fingal Bay

2.40 Menorah

3.20 Annie Power

4.00 Colour Squadron

4.40 Balnaslow

 

One less chance to lose money today.

Day off today so any stand outs traff? First bet of the week

 

any tips today traf?

 

No tips for Cheltenham, All horses are trying their best and as such it makes picking winners more difficult, which is why I've had little input to this thread.

I'm doing OK so far this week, up by around 75pts, but I wouldn't want to jinx it by going public with my selections. Mind you, I only decide which to back 5 mins before the off, so I wouldn't have time to share.

 

But do bear in mind that a 6/1 winner at Cheltenham only pays the same as a 6/1 winner at Wolverhampton, but the latter is easier to find.

 

That said (and I've only just started looking at today's card), Felix Yonger should win the opener if things go to plan, but he's only 7/2. 

Edited March 13, 201412 yr by Traf

Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Listed)

 

Course – Cheltenham

Distance – 3 miles

Date – Thur March 13th

Average field size last 10 years – 23.5

 

Positive Trends

 

Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 10/1 or bigger.

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners came from 5^th to 10^th in the betting.

LTO price: Horses that were 14/1 or bigger LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.

LTO market rank: 7 of the last 10 winners were 6^th or bigger in the betting market LTO.

Trainers:  2 wins for David Pipe and Jonjo O’Neill.

 

Negative Trends

 

Favourites: 0 wins from 10.

Top four in betting (inc. joints): 0 wins from 45.

Course winners: Just 1 win from 51.

Weights: Just 1 win from 58 for top 5 of the weights.

Official rating: Horses rated 143 or more have provided 0 winners from 39.

Runs in last year: Horses that had raced 3 times or less in the last year have provided 0 winners from 45 (just 3 placed).

Career win percentage: Horses with a career win percentage of over 25% have provided just 2 winners from 94.

Breeding:  French breds have provided 0 winners from 39.

 

Key Bullet points - look for:

 

Price 10/1 or bigger

Run at least 4 times in the last year

Career win percentage of 25% or under

 

Other positives - ideally look for:

 

14/1 or bigger LTO

Edited March 13, 201412 yr by Traf

World Hurdle (Grade 1)

 

Course – Cheltenham

Distance – 3 miles

Date – Thur March 13th

Average field size last 10 years – 13.8

 

Positive Trends

 

Price: 8 of the last winners were priced 6/1 or shorter.

Career win percentage: Horses with a career win percentage of over 40% have provided all of the last 10 winners.

LTO price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter LTO.

Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners won LTO.

Recent win:  All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last two starts.

Official Rating: 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 157 or higher.

Age:  All of the last 10 winners were aged 6 to 9.

 

Negative Trends

 

Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have won 0 races from 91.

Age: 0 wins from 14 for horses 10 or older.

Recent win: Horses that had failed to win at least one race in their last two starts have provided 0 winners from 69.

LTO position: Horses that finished 3^rd or worse LTO have provided 0 winners and just 1 placed runner from 61.

Breeding: Irish breds are 0 from 58.

Runs in last 90 days: Horses that had run 3 or more times in the last 90 days have provided 0 winners from 27 (just 2 placed).

Runs in last year: Horses that had run 6 or more times in the last year have provided just 1 winner and 5 placed horses from 59.

 

General Trends

 

Favourites: 4 wins from 10.

 

Key Bullet points - look for:

 

1^st LTO (won at least one of last two)

Run twice or less in last 90 days

Run 5 times or less in last year

Career win percentage of over 40%

Aged 6-9

Rated 157 or higher

LTO price 6/1 or shorter.

 

 

Had Taquin @8/1 got hunting party and colour squadrom later

Felix Yonger

Fingal Bay

Al Ferof

Big Bucks

Third Intention & Firth of the Clyde

(not bothering with final race).

Fingal Bay and Double Ross (each way) double

3.20 Cheltenham - best trends fit

More Of That (IRE)
Annie Power (IRE)
At Fishers Cross (IRE)

Haha, Al Ferof was wearing similar colours to Dynaste then…. both of us stood up in the office screaming at the TV…. and then the realisation…. oh fuck!

Fukinell Traf are you psychic

Fukinell Traf are you psychic

 

Thought that myself! All 3 in the right order!!!!!

I had 1st and 2nd tother way round with fishers cross, take my hat off mate....any numbers for this weeks lotto?

3.20 Cheltenham - best trends fit

More Of That (IRE)

Annie Power (IRE)

At Fishers Cross (IRE)

 

 

Fukinell Traf are you psychic

 

 

Thought that myself! All 3 in the right order!!!!!

 

 

I had 1st and 2nd tother way round with fishers cross, take my hat off mate....any numbers for this weeks lotto?

 

Hey, I'm not just fucking playing at it!

 

It "only" paid 95/1 anyway.

Hey, I'm not just fucking playing at it!

 

It "only" paid 95/1 anyway.

Did you have your usual £500 on it?

obvs, but Latham had more.

Edited March 13, 201412 yr by Traf