Latham8WFC Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 (edited) 1.30 Wicklow Brave & Josses Hill2.05 Dodging Bullets & Valdez2.40 Wrong Turn & King Massini3.20 My Tent or Yours & Jezki4.00 Quevega & Glens Melody4.40 Shotgun Paddy & Suntiep5.15 Ericht & Gardefort All single bets: Each Way Treble: Gilgamboa 9/1, Grandouet 10/1 and Hadrian's Approach 10/1 Edited March 11, 2014 by Latham8WFC Quote
Traf Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 4.40 Midnight Prayer I actually had a small antepost bet on that purely based on its breeding. I back all chasers sired by Midnight Legend and since 2007, 142 of the 717 runners have won (19.8% SR) for profits of £3660 to a £10 stake per horse at betfair SP. That's a decent 51% return. Quote
enzo gambaro Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 Blimey! King's horses are running well and this one is relatively unexposed and looks to want a trip on a sound surface. I did like Shotgun Paddy but can't back him on the ground. Quote
Traf Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 I also would have wanted a bigger price than 5/1 about SP. I know he's up in class, but Merlins Wish is the only horse in the race to have won at 4 miles and that was on soft/heavy, so he'll not lack stamina and even if he's outpaced in the earlier stages of the race, if he's ridden sensibly he'll complete the race. If he completes, there's every chance of a place and as such 33/1 E/W is attractive about a horse in clearly good form. Quote
Sweep Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 I've just gone for small interest bets in the following 13:30 Splash of Ginge e/w 14:05 Champagne Fever 14:40 vino Griego e/w If I get anything back from those nags, then I'll look at some of the other races Quote
royal white Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 1.30 Wicklow Brave & Josses Hill 2.05 Dodging Bullets & Valdez 2.40 Wrong Turn & King Massini 3.20 My Tent or Yours & Jezki 4.00 Quevega & Glens Melody 4.40 Shotgun Paddy & Suntiep 5.15 Ericht & Gardefort All single bets: Each Way Treble: Gilgamboa 9/1, Grandouet 10/1 and Hadrian's Approach 10/1 Some good picks there so far mate Quote
Latham8WFC Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 Some good picks there so far mate Cheers, the last two races have been decent and have paid for today/tomorrow's betting. Quote
royal white Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 Cheers for the heads up on midnight prayer gents, got me some pennies back Quote
enzo gambaro Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 Cheers Brian. Where's Harry Haynes when you need him? Quote
enzo gambaro Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 4:00 Hidden Identity 100/1 EW Lunique 33/1 EW Nice, Garrp. Almost fecking spectacular (unless you did manage to find a bookie paying four places). Quote
Traf Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) Course – Cheltenham Distance – 2 miles Date – Wed March 12th Average field size last 10 years – 9.3 Positive Trends Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter. Career win percentage: Horses with a career win percentage of over 40% have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. They have provided 90% of the winners from only 45% of the total runners. Days since last run: All of the last 10 winners had been off the track for between 31 and 56 days. LTO price: Horses that were 6/1 or shorter LTO have provided all of the last 10 winners. LTO class: Horses that raced in Graded company LTO have provided all winners of the last 10 winners. Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO. Backing all 30 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £9.99 (ROI +33.3%). Trainers: 2 wins for Nicky Henderson; 3 wins for Paul Nicholls. Course wins: 6 of the last 10 winners had won at Cheltenham before. Negative Trends Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 55 for a loss of £38.00 (ROI -69.1%). Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse LTO have provided just 1 winner from 32. Career win percentage: Horses with a career win percentage of 40% or less have provided just 1 winner from 51 for a loss of £40.00 (ROI -78.4%). Career place percentage: Horses with a career place percentage of 55% or less have provided just 0 winners from 37. Breeding: British breds have provided just 2 placed runners from 15. General Trends Age: 5yos have won 1 race from 1 runner (SR 100%); 6yos have won 2 races from 9 (SR 22.2%); 7yos have won 2 races from 10 (SR 20%); 8yos have won 1 race from 24 (SR 4.2%); 9yos have won 3 races from 23 (SR 13.0%); 10yos+ have won 1 race from 26 (SR 3.8%). Favourites: 3 wins from 10. Key Bullet points - look for: Price 10/1 or shorter Ran in Graded company LTO Career win percentage of over 40% Career place percentage of over 55% Days since last ran 31 to 56 days LTO price 6/1 or shorter Other positives - ideally look for: Won LTO Quote
Traf Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 RSA Chase (Grade 1) Course – Cheltenham Distance – 3 miles ½furlong Date – Wed March 12th Average field size last 10 years – 11.8 Positive Trends Grade 1 runs: 8 of the last winners had run in at least two Grade 1 races previously. They have provided 80% of the winners from only 44% of the total runners. Career place percentage: Horses with a career place percentage of 60% or more have provided all of the last 10 winners. Breeding: 9 of the last 10 winners have been Irish bred. LTO distance: 9 of the last 10 winners raced between 2m 5f and 3m LTO. Position LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO. Last two runs: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first three in both of their last two starts. Trainers: 2 wins for Willie Mullins; 2 wins for Nicky Henderson. Negative Trends Beaten distance LTO: Horses were beaten by more than 10 lengths LTO have provided just 0 winners from 28. Days since last run: Horses that had been off the track for more than 60 days have provided 0 winners from 25. General Trends Favourites: 3 wins from 10 for a small profit of 45 pence. Age: 5 & 6yos have won 1 race from 23 runners (SR 4.3%); 7yos have won 8 races from 55 (SR 14.5%); 8yos+ have won 1 race from 40 (SR 2.5%). Key Bullet points - look for: 1st or 2nd LTO Finished in first three on both of last two starts Career place percentage of 60%+ Irish bred Raced at Grade 1 level at least twice previously 7yo LTO distance 2m5f to 3m Quote
Traf Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 Coral Cup (Grade 3) Course – Cheltenham Distance – 2 miles 5 furlongs Date – Wed March 12th Average field size last 10 years – 27.1 Positive Trends Market: 8 of the last 10 winners have been 2nd to 7th in the betting market. Weight rank: The top 7 in the weights have won 6 of the races. They have provided 60% of winners from only 28% of the total runners. Breeding: French breds have provided 5 winners from 50 runners for a profit of £26.50 (ROI +53%). They have provided 50% of winners from only 18% of the total runners. Days since last run: 9 of the last 10 winners have been off the track for more than 30 days. Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners won LTO. They have provided 60% of winners from only 23% of the total runners. Negative Trends Favourites: 0 wins from 11. Recent win: Horses that have failed to win at least once in their last four starts have provided just 1 winner from 102 for a loss of £85.00 (ROI -83.3%). Class change: Horses dropping in class have provided just 1 winner from 60. Distance change: Horses dropping in distance from LTO have provided just 1 winner from 64. Course winners: Just 1 win from 51. General Trends Age: 5yos have won 3 races from 54 runners (SR 5.6%); 6yos have won 3 races from 73 (SR 4.1%); 7yos have won 2 races from 53 (SR 3.8%), 8yos have won 1 race from 45 (SR 2.2%); 9yos+ have won 1 race from 46 (SR 2.2%). Trainers: No trainer has won the race more than once in the last 10 years. Key Bullet points - look for: Off track for 31+ days 2nd to 7th in betting market Won at least once in their last 4 starts Other positives - ideally look for: LTO winners French breds Top 7 in weights Quote
Traf Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 Champion Bumper (Grade 1) Course – Cheltenham Distance – 2 miles Date – Wed March 12th Average field size last 10 years – 23.3 Positive Trends Second favourites: 3 wins and 2 placed for second favourites for a profit of £10.00 (ROI +100%). Career win percentage: Horses with a career win percentage of 50% or more have provided all of the last 10 winners. Career place percentage: Horses with a career place percentage of 100% have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. LTO price: Horses that were 4/1 or shorter LTO have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners won LTO. Trainers: 4 wins for Willie Mullins. Negative Trends Favourites: 1 win from 11. Price: Horses priced 50/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 67. Position LTO: Horses that failed to win LTO have provided 0 winners from 53. Runs in last 90 days: Horses that had run twice or more in the last 90 days have provided just 2 winners from 81. LTO price: Horses that were 9/2 or bigger LTO have provided just 1 winner from 86. General Trends Age: 4yos have won 1 race from 41 runners (SR 2.4%); 5yos have won 6 races from 136 (SR 4.4%); 6yos have won 3 races from 56 (SR 5.4%). Key Bullet points - look for: Won LTO Career win percentage of 50%+ Career place percentage of 100% LTO price 4/1 or shorter Quote
enzo gambaro Posted March 12, 2014 Posted March 12, 2014 1.30 Lieutenant Colonel 2.05 Le Bec 2.40 Sametegal 3.20 Captain Conan 4.00 A Stray Shot & Star Neuville 4.40 Clarclam 5.15 Shaneshill Quote
Garrp Posted March 12, 2014 Posted March 12, 2014 Nice, Garrp. Almost fecking spectacular (unless you did manage to find a bookie paying four places). Unfortunately not gutted as Lunique traded 6/4 in running too Quote
Traf Posted March 12, 2014 Posted March 12, 2014 Top stuff I think that these are the ones that fit the trends best, but they're not tips and it doesn't mean they'll win! 2.05 Cheltenham - Morning Assembly (IRE) 2.05 Cheltenham - Ballycasey (IRE) 2.40 Cheltenham – nothing clear cut 3.20 Cheltenham – Sire De Grugy 3.20 Cheltenham – Arvika Ligeonniere 5.15 Cheltenham – Killultagh Vic 5.15 Cheltenham - Black Hercules 5.15 Cheltenham - Shaneshill Quote
Traf Posted March 12, 2014 Posted March 12, 2014 I actually had a small antepost bet on that purely based on its breeding. I back all chasers sired by Midnight Legend and since 2007, 142 of the 717 runners have won (19.8% SR) for profits of £3660 to a £10 stake per horse at betfair SP. That's a decent 51% return. 3 of ML's offspring run today: 1.30 Cheltenham: Twelve Roses 2.55 Huntingdon: Midnight Charmer 5.15 Cheltenham: Coyaba but only Midnight Charmer runs in a chase. Quote
Garrp Posted March 12, 2014 Posted March 12, 2014 13:30 WITHOUT THE FAV – Knock House 50/1 EW with lads. 14:05 Samingarry WIN BETFAIR 240 PLACE BETFAIR 46 Quote
Traf Posted March 12, 2014 Posted March 12, 2014 3 of ML's offspring run today: 1.30 Cheltenham: Twelve Roses 2.55 Huntingdon: Midnight Charmer 5.15 Cheltenham: Coyaba but only Midnight Charmer runs in a chase. Twelve Roses ran a massive race to finish 5th at 66/1, Quote
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