Last year at this stage I looked at the possibility of reaching the playoffs.

This season it seems more appropriate to focus on avoiding relegation.

 

I have looked at the last 18 seasons as for the previous season to that 4 teams were relegated.

 

Points require to guarantee avoiding relegation - 55 or more.

 

Points required to guarantee avoiding relegation excluding last season, which was exceptional at both ends - 53 or more.

 

Points required to make survival more likely than relegation - 49 or more.

 

Points which have always meant relegation - 42 or less. (Note that Portsmouth were relegated on 40 in administration - otherwise Barnsley would have gone down on 48).

 

Number of times the bottom 3 at the end of February have all been relegated - 8 (but this includes the last 5 seasons).

 

Number of times the bottom 3 at the end of March have all been relegated - 6.

 

Highest position at end of February to be relegated - 10th(!!) with 44 points.

 

Highest position at end of March to be relegated - 17th with 47 points..

put three notes on us go down, liverpool win the league double. Two horrific scenarios. Pays 300 odd.

Sad but true.

Play the lads who are here next year that should sort that and play our players before loan players wherever possible, Trotter playing in front of all our players who are signed on for next year is inexcusable, it must also piss our players off. Bad man management.

Edited February 14, 201412 yr by Mounts Kipper

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Edited February 14, 201412 yr by Mounts Kipper

At 12/1?

 

Aye, £30 at 12/1 returns £390, which should cover an ST.

Play the lads who are here next year that should sort that and play our players before loan players wherever possible, Trotter playing in front of all our players who are signed on for next year is inexcusable, it must also piss our players off. Bad man management.

 

trotter is signed on for next year

 

you might not like it, but tis true

trotter is signed on for next year

 

you might not like it, but tis true

Must be someone leaving then, Pratleys contract up?

Edited February 14, 201412 yr by Mounts Kipper

Aye, £30 at 12/1 returns £390, which should cover an ST.

 

 

ok then

 

 

but

 

 

if I win, I'm taking it off you in your professional capacity, not as a mate

I'm not laying the bet at 12/1 for you, I think you might have misunderstood.

 

That's the price at the bookies that I've taken.

Relegation or not, yon Glaswegian fucker has to go.

I'm not laying the bet at 12/1 for you, I think you might have misunderstood.

 

That's the price at the bookies that I've taken.

 

 

fine

 

you can't lose; even better for me that you aren't losing

Edited February 14, 201412 yr by boltondiver

Sheffield Weds v Charlton is off, fixture pile up.

Didn't we go down with the highest points in the premiership or have I made that up in my head?

We did with 40, until West Aaaam went with 42.

We did with 40, until West Aaaam went with 42.

 

 

Thought Palace was highest? 43?

Edited February 15, 201412 yr by boltondiver

Thought Palace was highest? 43?

 

 

Palace 49 from 42 games

West Ham 42 from 38

Palace 49 from 42 games

West Ham 42 from 38

And who relegated them?

Sheffield Weds v Charlton is off, fixture pile up.

 

If it can be re-arranged for this midweek then there is no real problem.

But nowadays police usually require more than a week's notice (which is why replays are in the second week after the original). South Yorkshire Police are noted for their (lack of) helpfulness.

 

If the match is not played this midweek then it will be held in the replay slot (25/26 Feb).

This will mean Charlton v Barnsley (currently on 25th) would again need rescheduling.

 

That could go to 4/5 March, just a few days before a potential 6th round match.

 

If the Wednesday v Barnsley cuptie is not held this week, and is then drawn, the replay will be on 6th round day. 

That would postpone Charlton v Watford.

 

If Wednesday reach the 6th round the Watford league match would definitely be postponed.

Charlton already have league matches for every midweek between the 6th round and the semi-final, so a drawn 6th round tie would definely cause another rearrangement.

 

If Charlton reach the semi-final, or lose to Brighton in the 6th round, their league match at Brighton will be postponed.

Last year at this stage I looked at the possibility of reaching the playoffs.

This season it seems more appropriate to focus on avoiding relegation.

 

I have looked at the last 18 seasons as for the previous season to that 4 teams were relegated.

 

Points require to guarantee avoiding relegation - 55 or more.

 

Points required to guarantee avoiding relegation excluding last season, which was exceptional at both ends - 53 or more.

 

Points required to make survival more likely than relegation - 49 or more.

 

Points which have always meant relegation - 42 or less. (Note that Portsmouth were relegated on 40 in administration - otherwise Barnsley would have gone down on 48).

 

Number of times the bottom 3 at the end of February have all been relegated - 8 (but this includes the last 5 seasons).

 

Number of times the bottom 3 at the end of March have all been relegated - 6.

 

Highest position at end of February to be relegated - 10th(!!) with 44 points.

 

Highest position at end of March to be relegated - 17th with 47 points..

 

 

19 needed from 15

15/1 with skybet, Traf's favourite bookie.

15/1 with skybet, Traf's favourite bookie.

 

My maximum allowed stake has been £5 with them for months.

They emailed me this morning to say they had reviewed my account and relaxed the restrictions.

 

Logged in and found the limit upped to £25, so I backed Rigadin de Beauchene at Haydock today, which won at 16/1.

I'll be back to penny bets tomorrow.

15/1 with skybet, Traf's favourite bookie.

 Exactly. The odds have lengthened because today has improved our chances of safety.

 Exactly. The odds have lengthened because today has improved our chances of safety.

 

 

not by 25%, surely?

not by 25%, surely?

No, from 92.31% to 93.75% chance of staying up.

If it can be re-arranged for this midweek then there is no real problem.

 

Sheffield Wednesday already have a home match on this Tuesday - v Derby - re-arranged from today because of the cup match.

 

Charlton currently have league matches on:

 

February 22 and 25;

March 1, 8, 11, 15, 18, 22, 25 and 29;

April 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 21 and 26.

May 3.

 

The February 25 match will probably be postponed to acvcommodate the rearranged fifth round.

If Charlton win or draw the fifth round then March 8 will be postponed.

If Charlton reach the sixth round but have a replay in either the fifth or sixth rounds then March 18 will be postponed.

If Charlton or Brighton reach the semifinal the April 12 will be postponed.

All rearrangements to be played before May 3.

Tricky.

not by 25%, surely?

 

No, from 92.31% to 93.75% chance of staying up.

 

So by 23%.