Last year at this stage I looked at the possibility of reaching the playoffs.

This season it seems more appropriate to focus on avoiding relegation.

 

I have looked at the last 18 seasons as for the previous season to that 4 teams were relegated.

 

Points require to guarantee avoiding relegation - 55 or more.

 

Points required to guarantee avoiding relegation excluding last season, which was exceptional at both ends - 53 or more.

 

Points required to make survival more likely than relegation - 49 or more.

 

Points which have always meant relegation - 42 or less. (Note that Portsmouth were relegated on 40 in administration - otherwise Barnsley would have gone down on 48).

 

Number of times the bottom 3 at the end of February have all been relegated - 8 (but this includes the last 5 seasons).

 

Number of times the bottom 3 at the end of March have all been relegated - 6.

 

Highest position at end of February to be relegated - 10th(!!) with 44 points.

 

Highest position at end of March to be relegated - 17th with 47 points..

So by 23%.

 

 

You'll have to explain

You'll have to explain

 

(100 - 92.31)/(100 - 93.75) = 1.2304

It's 10 games since we won a game in the league it will be 11 after next week as we won't get near Watford it is time to act, barring a team down there being ludicrously bad I really feel we're going down I've absolutey zero faith in freedmans ability to get us out of this hole. Relegation is abject failure of everyone involved in BWFC but mainly the failure of Eddie Davies to have some courage and take the bull by the horns and get rid of this horrendously bad management team.

No, no, no.

 

92.31 to 93.75 is an increase of 1.44

 

1.44 is 1.56% of 92.31.

 

Our chance of staying up has increased by 1.56%.

No, no, no.

 

92.31 to 93.75 is an increase of 1.44

 

1.44 is 1.56% of 92.31.

 

Our chance of staying up has increased by 1.56%.

 

 

Phew

 

 

Thought I were going mad

No, no, no.

 

92.31 to 93.75 is an increase of 1.44

 

1.44 is 1.56% of 92.31.

 

Our chance of staying up has increased by 1.56%.

 

Did you just out-math Malcolm?

 

Although I'm fairly certain it's just 1.44%, as it's just an increase from one % to another.

 

I'm also convinced Malcolm's calculations relate only to betting odds.

Edited February 16, 201412 yr by SnoopJohnnyJohn

Seems we may have to screw it up and start afresh. Can't see how relegation will be avoided with this lot.

 

I've been patient with Freedman but some of his selections and tactics are bewildering at times. Can't blame him for a penalty miss but to bring on Zat Knight to shore the defence up was a joke.

Did you just out-math Malcolm?

 

Although I'm fairly certain it's just 1.44%, as it's just an increase from one % to another.

 

I'm also convinced Malcolm's calculations relate only to betting odds.

 

1.44% overall and 1.56% proportionally, but either way around 1.5%, not 23 -25.

 

#trafthesadmathsgraduate

No, no, no.

 

92.31 to 93.75 is an increase of 1.44

 

1.44 is 1.56% of 92.31.

 

Our chance of staying up has increased by 1.56%.

Glad you did that. I somehow felt disrespectful as I pondered whether to point out Malc's erroneous maths. Bit like the Korean co pilots who preferred to let the 747 crash rather than question the judgement of their captain.

Glad you did that. I somehow felt disrespectful as I pondered whether to point out Malc's erroneous maths. Bit like the Korean co pilots who preferred to let the 747 crash rather than question the judgement of their captain.

 

It's not erroneous.

Both are correct in their own way.

Using the bookies odds our chance of relegation has reduced by 23% of itself.

Our chances of staying up have improved by 1.56% as Traf says.

What I'm suggesting is that the odds are flawed.

And clearly the bookies don't expect us to collect only 8 points from the last 10, as someone suggested (or less. as another did).

But, as has been pointed out, our April opponents could all be striving for points more than, for example, Barnsley's opponents (Brighton, Burnley, Bolton, Leeds, Derby, Middlesbrough - and maybe Forest).

Bookies are never wrong Malc.

Don't give a fuck if we go down.

 

New grounds we haven't been at for a few years.

 

The fact is we shouldn't be in this position though.

 

I still cannot believe DF is still at the club.

Something untoward how this clown is still in charge

 

We are going down

Que sera sera

What ever will be will be

We're goin to division 3

Que sera sera

be glad when talentless dougie is finally gone whenever that may be

Just looked through the remaining fixtures and I have us picking up another 15 points.... it's going to be fucking close