Last year at this stage I looked at the possibility of reaching the playoffs.

This season it seems more appropriate to focus on avoiding relegation.

 

I have looked at the last 18 seasons as for the previous season to that 4 teams were relegated.

 

Points require to guarantee avoiding relegation - 55 or more.

 

Points required to guarantee avoiding relegation excluding last season, which was exceptional at both ends - 53 or more.

 

Points required to make survival more likely than relegation - 49 or more.

 

Points which have always meant relegation - 42 or less. (Note that Portsmouth were relegated on 40 in administration - otherwise Barnsley would have gone down on 48).

 

Number of times the bottom 3 at the end of February have all been relegated - 8 (but this includes the last 5 seasons).

 

Number of times the bottom 3 at the end of March have all been relegated - 6.

 

Highest position at end of February to be relegated - 10th(!!) with 44 points.

 

Highest position at end of March to be relegated - 17th with 47 points..

Does that mean we're fucked?

So, 20pts from 16 games to make survival more likely than relegation?

 

5 wins, 5 draws & 6 defeats?

Looks unlikely.

I've seen Millwall relegated twice having been top at Christmas, once from the top flight in 1990, and then from what is now the Championship in 1996...where the only time we were in the bottom three was in injury time of the last game of the season on goal difference after Portsmouth scored a late winner up at Huddersfield.

 

Oh, how we laughed.

 

This has been not help whatsoever, but for what's it's worth I think it's Yeovil, Barnsley and then between us & Charlton.

I've seen Millwall relegated twice having been top at Christmas, once from the top flight in 1990, and then from what is now the Championship in 1996...where the only time we were in the bottom three was in injury time of the last game of the season on goal difference after Portsmouth scored a late winner up at Huddersfield.

 

Oh, how we laughed.

 

This has been not help whatsoever, but for what's it's worth I think it's Yeovil, Barnsley and then between us & Charlton.

fair comment yeovil and Barnsley are the shit of the shit for me,the last spot could be very interesting people say Bolton,millwall,charlton or Donny what about blackpool there slump has gone unnoticed

Not Leicester then?

So, 20pts from 16 games to make survival more likely than relegation?

 

5 wins, 5 draws & 6 defeats?

Looks unlikely.

5 wins....

 

We've only won 6 all season....

 

With a team devoid of any clue or enthusiasm and led by a complete spastic....

 

I hold little hope

Our form and the way Bolton games seem to take shape bears hallmarks of previous relegation seasons. I agree that Yeovil and Barnsley are likely to go but won't take that for granted. Charlton's recent foreign signings are an unknown factor, Doncaster seem to be up for a scrap and Holloway may yet get Millwall in the shape. We need to find one of those to finsh above. I think 4 wins and 5 draws will see us home and dry - just!

Barnsley are serial escapers (although they seem to be struggling more this season). And they are home to QPR on the final day.

 

Yeovil just don't seem good enough, but if they string 3 wins together...

 

Charlton have fixture congestion already and play Sheffield Wednesday away in FA Cup fifth round, giving scope for more added matches

I've not looked at current form but we must be bottom. Freedman must play Beckford in every game with 2 up top every game we have to go for wins, I'm not confident I think at the moment were the worst team in this league.

We need to fight to stay up

 

 

So, we're fucked

I've not looked at current form but we must be bottom. Freedman must play Beckford in every game with 2 up top every game we have to go for wins, I'm not confident I think at the moment were the worst team in this league.

 

Grim: http://www.footballformguide.net/form/sky-bet-championship

Grim: http://www.footballformguide.net/form/sky-bet-championship

 

Fuck me. We're fucked good and proper. I've not even considered it seriously up to now, but like me on a Sunday morning, it doesn't look good.

Does that mean we're fucked?

 

 

I see that the skill of condensing things to the key point is still with you.

Charlton's new owner has sold the spine of their team - the keeper, Stephens the creative midfielder, and Kermogant the focal point of their game plan & target man...and replaced them with young, inexperienced players from his stable of European clubs. They've brought in two strikers - one an Iranian & the other a Pole who's only played in the Dutch 2nd tier, and the new keeper is a bit of a clown (their words).

 

You never know, it could work. But a very risk gamble midway through the season.

 

I think once Holloway finally gets a settled side (he's brought in 5 new players; Williams from MK Dons, Upson from Yeovil, DJ Campbell, Simeon Jackson and Fredericks from Spurs) and we restore some confidence after the ordeal of Lomas we should pull clear just.

 

I can't see Charlton having enough to overhaul Bolton.

I think once Holloway finally gets a settled side (he's brought in 5 new players; Williams from MK Dons, Upson from Yeovil, DJ Campbell, Simeon Jackson and Fredericks from Spurs) and we restore some confidence after the ordeal of Lomas we should pull clear just.

.

 

If DJ Campbell is involved I wouldn't bet on it

If DJ Campbell is involved I wouldn't bet on it

Ha. Indeed.

 

On his debut the Millwall fans started singing 'DJ what's the score? DJ, DJ what's the score?' after a few minutes. He looked a bit sheepish.

 

But he has said that we will win on Saturday....

We are totally fucked away games at Doncaster Millwall Charlton & Yeovil will see to that plus we have some tough games at home including three derby games but never mind our delusional manager is confident as usual although he has stopped mentioning the playoffs

The clock is ticking the games are diminishing

& I fear itd already too late with the players confidence at an all time low

The right person coming in Now could still save the day but I can't imagine us having enough cash

To secure a manager of that calibre.

We'll be reet.

I think we'll just stay above Charlton, Barnsley and Yeovil though I'm a long way from confident 

I think we'll just stay above Charlton, Barnsley and Yeovil though I'm a long way from confident 

 

 

I hope your right but I am also not confident of that and less confident in our managers ability to put the right team on the pitch more often than not.

I reckon 46pts will keep us up.

 

We're averaging 0.966pts per game, which gives us 44.46pts, so some improvement is needed to stay up.

I reckon 46pts will keep us up.

 

We're averaging 0.966pts per game, which gives us 44.46pts, so some improvement is needed to stay up.

 

46 would not have stayed up in 5 of the last 10 seasons.

And 2 seasons ago it would have meant relegation but for Portsmouth's points deduction.

And in 08-09 Norwich went down with 46 and a GD of -13.

The lower teams often improve their points average under the spectre of potential relegation.

We need some wins, and Saturday can be a good start, whether it's 1-0 or 6-5.

46 would not have stayed up in 5 of the last 10 seasons.

And 2 seasons ago it would have meant relegation but for Portsmouth's points deduction.

And in 08-09 Norwich went down with 46 and a GD of -13.

The lower teams often improve their points average under the spectre of potential relegation.

We need some wins, and Saturday can be a good start, whether it's 1-0 or 6-5.

 

I know all of that, but...

 

I reckon 46 will be enough. 48 certainly will.

But I'm not convinced we'll get 48.

Doncaster away 8th April

Barnsley at home 12th

Charlton away on 19th

 

 

Those 3 games will make or break us

Doncaster away 8th April

Barnsley at home 12th

Charlton away on 19th

 

 

Those 3 games will make or break us

Add Yeovilaway 22/3