Traf Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 Anything over 11 stone will struggle IMO. That's why I asked the question about how he arrived at the "ideal weight" statement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Horwich Posted March 31, 2009 Moderators Share Posted March 31, 2009 no winner with more than 11st 1lb since 1983 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 I cant see My Will pulling that weight round to win even though ive got a nice green on him on Betfair at the minute. Think Hedgehunter was most recent winner over 11st wasnt it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 no winner with more than 11st 1lb since 1983 Indeed. The trends will tell you that a "typical" National winner: - Carries 11 stone or less (it?s VERY tough to lug more than that round Aintree?s ultimate test) - Aged 8-12 (not too young, not too old) - Won over 3m+ (it?s 4 and a half miles on Saturday!) - Won in a field of 12 or more (there?ll be forty of them on Saturday!) - No French bred has since 1909. What chance a centennial winner?! - Must be an experienced chaser (more than ten runs, more than two seasons chasing) - Had four to seven runs this season (as every winner bar Miinehoma since 1990 has) - Placed in the first three that season prior to the Grand National Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wayne cramp Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 the rule i follow age 9 or 10 weight 10-4 --- 11.0 then i start to look at the form - length of races building up to this , dont like anything thathad to many runs this season i,ve narrowed it down to - rambling minstrel l,ami darkness r.m to win the other 2 e.way . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juewanderer Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 I'm going for COMPLY OR DIE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 the rule i follow age 9 or 10 weight 10-4 --- 11.0 then i start to look at the form - length of races building up to this , dont like anything thathad to many runs this season i,ve narrowed it down to - rambling minstrel l,ami darkness r.m to win the other 2 e.way . Rambling Minstrel is a good call IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Garrp Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 Darkness is the one apparently Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Horwich Posted March 31, 2009 Moderators Share Posted March 31, 2009 14 of the last 18 winners came from the first eight in the market at SP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter HomerJay Posted April 3, 2009 Site Supporter Share Posted April 3, 2009 Rambling Minstrel is a good call IMO. thats what im having. any bookies offering more than 4 places? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 thats what im having. any bookies offering more than 4 places? Skybet are offering 5 places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magic legs Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 Paddypower are doing the first five too. There was a preview of the race on the Spoiler yesterday:- http://www.thespoiler.co.uk/index.php/2009...ill-be%e2%80%a6 Step One 14 of the last 17 winners started in the top eight of the betting. Therefore it must be one of these guys (three are joint-eighth): My Will, Butler?s Cabin, Rambling Minister, State of Play, Hear The Echo, Parsons Legacy, Darkness, Comply or Die, Black Apalachi or Irish Invader Step Two 10 of the last 13 winners have been aged either 9 or 10. That means we say goodbye to Rambling Minister (11), Hear The Echo (, Parsons Legacy (11) and Irish Invader (. Still fighting are: My Will, Butler?s Cabin, State of Play, Darkness, Comply or Die and Black Apalachi Step Three No horse since Red Rum in 1974 has won the Grand National in successive years. That rules out Comply or Die, leaving us with: My Will, Butler?s Cabin, State of Play, Darkness and Black Apalachi Step Four A century has passed without a French-bred winner. That?s bad news for My Will and Butler?s Cabin. Still in with a chance are: State of Play, Darkness and Black Apalachi Step Five Only one of the last 19 winners have been carrying over 11 stone. As State of Play (11-02) and Black Apalachi (11-05) have been heavily handicapped that means the winner should be? Darkness! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wayne cramp Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 Paddypower are doing the first five too. There was a preview of the race on the Spoiler yesterday:- http://www.thespoiler.co.uk/index.php/2009...ill-be%e2%80%a6 Step One 14 of the last 17 winners started in the top eight of the betting. Therefore it must be one of these guys (three are joint-eighth): My Will, Butler?s Cabin, Rambling Minister, State of Play, Hear The Echo, Parsons Legacy, Darkness, Comply or Die, Black Apalachi or Irish Invader Step Two 10 of the last 13 winners have been aged either 9 or 10. That means we say goodbye to Rambling Minister (11), Hear The Echo (, Parsons Legacy (11) and Irish Invader (. Still fighting are: My Will, Butler?s Cabin, State of Play, Darkness, Comply or Die and Black Apalachi Step Three No horse since Red Rum in 1974 has won the Grand National in successive years. That rules out Comply or Die, leaving us with: My Will, Butler?s Cabin, State of Play, Darkness and Black Apalachi Step Four A century has passed without a French-bred winner. That?s bad news for My Will and Butler?s Cabin. Still in with a chance are: State of Play, Darkness and Black Apalachi Step Five Only one of the last 19 winners have been carrying over 11 stone. As State of Play (11-02) and Black Apalachi (11-05) have been heavily handicapped that means the winner should be? Darkness! as per my previous post - i have backed darkness e.w. the problem though in the past has been dodgy jumping - even when you look through the races its won - it has hit a fence or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 as per my previous post - i have backed darkness e.w. the problem though in the past has been dodgy jumping - even when you look through the races its won - it has hit a fence or two. Thats what i thought when i looked into its past races, if it hits a few of the fences at aintree its gonna be fucked. It hadnt run for a while until its last race a Newbury as well which is a worry imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richbwfc Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 The fences at Aintree looked very lose yesterday, and horses were just going straight through them when they raced on the Grand National course. Could well mean that we see less fallers and that horses such as Darkness which arent great over the fences are in with more of a chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 The fences at Aintree looked very lose yesterday, and horses were just going straight through them when they raced on the Grand National course.Could well mean that we see less fallers and that horses such as Darkness which arent great over the fences are in with more of a chance. Im think they may sort the fences out at the end of each day, so they will be back to normal for the big race i think. Sometimes during the race gaps appear in the fences where the jockeys might aim for to make it easier for the horse, i think Red rum used to do something like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 as per my previous post - i have backed darkness e.w. the problem though in the past has been dodgy jumping - even when you look through the races its won - it has hit a fence or two. My concerns about Darkness are: he only tends to win with McCoy on board and McCoy is riding Butler's Cabin. This suggests that he needs some help getting round. His jockey tomorrow has never ridden him before! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 Indeed.The trends will tell you that a "typical" National winner: - Carries 11 stone or less (it?s VERY tough to lug more than that round Aintree?s ultimate test) - Aged 8-12 (not too young, not too old) - Won over 3m+ (it?s 4 and a half miles on Saturday!) - Won in a field of 12 or more (there?ll be forty of them on Saturday!) - No French bred has since 1909. What chance a centennial winner?! - Must be an experienced chaser (more than ten runs, more than two seasons chasing) - Had four to seven runs this season (as every winner bar Miinehoma since 1990 has)- Placed in the first three that season prior to the Grand National Another negative for Darkness is its only had 3 races since april 06. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 Aside from L'Ami, I've had a small go at Brooklyn Brownie and an even smaller place only bet on Stan, who shouldn't have a hope in hell, really. He intrigues me, though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaz Nt Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 Whats Djorkeaff think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djorkaeff Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 State Of Play for me. I`ve drawn Parsons Legacy in the works sweep so will be having a dabble on that too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigtoe Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 Rambling Minster & Darkness Parsons Legacy on the outside Hear the Echo for the little un as a long shot because its in Pink I've already written the money off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted April 3, 2009 Share Posted April 3, 2009 State Of Play for me. That's two of us then! http://www.wanderersways.com/forum/index.p...st&p=623780 hope you got 20's! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted April 4, 2009 Share Posted April 4, 2009 Skybet are offering 5 places. Boylesports are offering 6 places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L/H White Posted April 4, 2009 Author Share Posted April 4, 2009 I've also gone for Darkness, it's already won for me once this year, so i'm hoping it can bring me a few quid again tomorrow. L'ami @ 20/1 E/W also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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