March 25, 201214 yr Complete blank today. Still, nice track, good day out. Winning money is just a bonus that didn't happen today! Brecan Boy turned over a 2/9 favourite in the first, my 6/1 pick in the 4.50 led for the entirity of the 2m 5f, was hampered by an unseated horse approaching the last and was beaten by a nasal hair
March 26, 201214 yr Author Monday's Stat of the Day: http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-day-26th-march-2012/
March 26, 201214 yr Author And a roundup of where it's up to: http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-day-update-19th-25th-march-2012/
March 26, 201214 yr Author Monday's Stat of the Day: http://www.geegeez.c...6th-march-2012/ 7/2 winner today: betfair paid 5.43
March 26, 201214 yr I got 4/1, many thanks Geegeez. With course record I think even 7/2 was generous. I shan't complain. Just bit by bit repair the Downpatrick damage...
March 26, 201214 yr Author Good Arrows, 7/2 was more than generous. In fact the 11/4 on offer this morning was too long for a horse that has now not been outside of the top two in 6 races at Towcester. Watch for it reappearing.
March 27, 201214 yr Author Another course specialist for you today, but he's got a bit more to find than yesterday's, but the price will reflect that, if he gets home! http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-day-27th-march-2012/
March 27, 201214 yr How can an 11/1 shot in a field of that size be 2/1 to be placed?! Now I know how Betfair makes its money!
March 27, 201214 yr Author 5/2 place only at Ladbrokes. The reason betfair's place price is so low is because unlike a traditional E/W bet, there's no losing win element to your bet if it comes 3rd. ?10 E/w today at 11/1 pays back ?32 if it gets placed only ie ?12 profit on ?20 or 1.6/1 overall A ?20 place only bet will return more. Obviously if it wins, you lose out. I'd advise using Best Odds Guaranteed bookies for the E/W bets, but do separate win & place bets.
March 27, 201214 yr How can an 11/1 shot in a field of that size be 2/1 to be placed?! Now I know how Betfair makes its money! Is it not a fifth of the odds in a 9-runner handicap? 2/1 is pretty good in that case.
March 27, 201214 yr Author It is 1/5 odds at bookies, but betfair's place price is 2/1. Take Ladbrokes 5/2 anyway!
March 27, 201214 yr It is 1/5 odds at bookies, but betfair's place price is 2/1. Aye, I get that, but, given that the Betfair layer doesn't necessarily have the safety net of a losing 'win' bet to offset placed runners, I'd say that was a decent price rather than the swizz Maggie suggests. 5/2 with Ladbrokes is obviously better. What if there are two non-runners, though...
March 27, 201214 yr Author No, I agree with you. I tried to make out earlier that 2/1 was decent. If there's non-runners, you still get your 2/1 at betfair, too
March 27, 201214 yr I was almost talking to myself about the non-runner thing! It's always irked me that Rule 4 applies when the terms change for the bookie, but that there's an assumption that I'd have made the same bet in, say, a 16-runner handicap as I would in a 15-runner handicap. Carry on!
March 27, 201214 yr Author The rule 4 deductions and the odds paid for a place are just two of the things that irritate me about betting!
March 27, 201214 yr Another course specialist for you today, but he's got a bit more to find than yesterday's, but the price will reflect that, if he gets home! http://www.geegeez.c...7th-march-2012/ Lumped ?15 E/W.
March 27, 201214 yr Lumped ?15 E/W. I've gone ?10 EW. I've also had a little cheeky ?2 on Tottenham HT Bolton FT at 66/1
March 27, 201214 yr So, no pressure on me today, then? It's the money I was gonna lend Spider for his sons shoes
March 27, 201214 yr Bank currently 27.8% up on this weeks efforts Traf so, well done mate. Keep em coming.
March 27, 201214 yr Author I've just had a nibble at the 4/1 (BOG) on offer from bet365 for Lady Mandy in the 6.10 Kempton on Wednesday evening. If anybody wants my reasons, I'll gladly explain in the morning.
March 28, 201214 yr Hope it's not a Manilow-esque reason, go forth Ms Traf, just had a score out of curiosity.
March 28, 201214 yr Author Firstly: Stat of the Day: http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-day-28th-march-2012/ Secondly the 6.10 Kempton race as above: The horse had 3 runs within a month last October/November, all over a very unsuitable 6 furlongs to get a handicap mark. The yard has then left the horse off the track for 20 weeks waiting for the right race. Lady Mandy is owned by Dr Marwan Koukash: a very shrewd operator and who names his better new horses after family members. His wife's name is Mandy and the horse is entered in 3 big Tattersalls sales races. This probably looks over optimistic for a 48-rated horse but a step up to 10 furlongs with hanagan on board should do the trick today.
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