I've just had a nibble at the 4/1 (BOG) on offer from bet365 for Lady Mandy in the 6.10 Kempton on Wednesday evening.

If anybody wants my reasons, I'll gladly explain in the morning.

 

As low as 5/2 in places now.

Ay Tay Tate was 3rd, whilst Lady Mandy was 2nd.

 

And I think both finished well, but were held back too long.

Edited March 28, 201214 yr by Traf

Thursday's Stat of the Day horse is one I picked 2 weeks ago that should have won.

I expect better today. http://www.geegeez.c...9th-march-2012/

 

We got better today: it won!

Edited March 29, 201214 yr by Traf

Bet 365 have Tartan at 7/2. What's this cover bet Traf ?

They have 5/2 2nd 11/5 3rd. Is it like a EW bet?

Bet 365 have Tartan at 7/2. What's this cover bet Traf ?

They have 5/2 2nd 11/5 3rd. Is it like a EW bet?

 

The 5/2 is the "cover 2 places" bet: if the horse wins you get paid 5/2, if it comes 2nd you get your stake back. Any other result = loss of stake.

 

The 11/5 is the "cover 3 places" bet: if the horse wins you get paid 11/5, if it comes 2nd or 3rd you get your stake back. Any other result = loss of stake.

 

Whether it's worth it is really up to you.

Cheers Traf. It's got it's pro's n cons, it got me thinking 'put a bigger stake on the 11/5 option' to be honest but that's not really gambling. I'm going on the nose

Spider, your sons shoes, tie, catapult n hat are just being ordered. Good arrows Traf

Thanks to Geegeez again! Took a generous 4/1 this morning. Irrespective of whether or not these selections win, I'm well and truly impressed with the methodology behind the picks and the science and knowledge that goes into it. Count me amongst the daily Geegeez readership for good from this point forth and not just because stat of the day is hot at the minute. As a chap who's always enjoyed racing without knowing a particular amount about it it's a good education, aside from anything else. All power to you!

Edited March 29, 201214 yr by Maggie Tate

Good man traf!!

Cheers, lads.

Nice to know I've recruited a few new readers along the way.

I'm definitely on a roll with SotD, but there will be a barren spell on the way: it's always the case.

 

I've got 2 more to do (Fri & Sat) before I go away and hand the reins over to Matt for a couple of weeks.

SotD is 17.5pts up this month so far and here's Friday's: http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-day-30th-march-2012/

 

We're 86.5pts up since we started the feature in mid-November.

I am a long time racing fan starting the day of my first ever bet (sixpence on the 1966 Oaks winner ridden by Lester Piggott - Valerie or summat) put on for me by my Grandad. Pure form and class backer really but loving this.

 

I agree with Maggies assessment. The Stat of the Day analysis is spot on. Reasons are laid out in a way which is easy to grasp and with transparent logic. I will continue to follow from afar (God bless Betfair).

 

I took the 4.90 for Tartan Tiger being offered on BF and am currently +56.4% for the week (I only started backing them last Monday for 10% of my bank. Once bank doubles, draw premium and start again at original bank).

 

Don't worry Traf - inevitable there'll be a string of 'outs' somewhere but equally as likely there'll be hot streaks. My staking system is the ideal way to mitigate the former and maximise the benefit from the latter.

This is about the 5th or 6th time I've attempted a running daily thread on here with the horses, but they have invariably in the past been ruined by folk moaning after a few losers and they've done money in that they couldn't afford to lose.

 

Another time (and the likes of Ani & CWP will testify, if they can remember!) I was getting slagged off because a good number of my selections went off quite short: the fact they kept winning and showing a profit was always countered by such gems as "any fucker can pick short priced favourites!"

 

I don't claim to be the big "I am" everything I know about racing, I've taught myself, apart from bits & bobs from a jockey friend of mine and the bulk of my betting is based on such logical grounds as SotD.

I aim to make 75pts per month, so one strand can put over 15pts in the kitty: that's great. I do find myself having around a dozen bets a day as part of my portfolio and some parts are doing better than others. I follow certain trainers in cetain types of races each month ( different trainers each month) and I'm just over 50pts up on those this month, but I have lost money elsewhere.

 

I'm just glad that the likes of Maggie T are getting their enjoyment of a great sport enhanced by learning a little bit and that seasoned pros like yourself are liking what they see.

Stats / trends based analysis doesn't suit everyone, but you can't dispute the logic behind it.

 

Having said all of the above: I'll now not pick another winner till June!

Traf, whatever happens - ignore the moaners. You put in the time and the analysis and make it easy for anyone to have a punt knowing they have a reasonable chance of success. The only thing bent about horse racing are the horses themselves. Like humans, they have off days and good days and that is all part of the magic of racing.

 

If you don't tip another winner til June, it won't worry me one iota. When I am on a losing run, my bets decrease and when I am on a winning run, they increase. 10% of the bank at all times until bank doubles, draw your premium, start again. Simple genius learned from a pro. Every time I have really fancied one and gone outside of this rule, they invariably lose.

 

All that is needed is the in depth analysis and you are making it remarkably easy! I don't have to burn the midnight oil assessing weights, going, rider bookings, horse placements, barrier draw etc. Fcuking marvellous.

 

I will be on with my Aussie tips for this weekend but the anticipation is growing of watching Americain in the upcoming BMW (multi million dollar WFA mile and a half race on Golden Slipper day at Rosehill, Sydney). Horwich, if you are reading this, unloading for a place would appear to me to be about as safe a bet as you could have.

Cheers, mate.

 

Ever since I got involved with WW, I've wanted us to have a thriving racing section.

This time around might just be that time it takes off.

 

The Cheltenham comp & surrounding discussions were very good (thanks again to Horwich for running it!) and I'd hope that some/more of the people who took part would get a bit more involved in this section. There's some decent racing knowledge out there and whilst we are predomainantly a piss-taking / football (in that order!) forum: it'd be great to see this section buzzing.

 

Nobody should be worried about throwing stuff into the mix, there are no right answers!

Traf, are you hoping the winners dry up while you're away so you can lord it on your return?!!!

 

Big meetings aside, all there used to be on here was a list of fancied horses followed by an update as to how they fared, which was all a bit dull, really.

 

I think the Stat of the Day links help maintain a bit more interest. They're well written and informative and it's clear a lot of thought goes into the selections. I think people will take more interest if they have a justification to part with their money that goes beyond blind faith.

 

I don't generally back the stat, but I like reading them, and I'm sure many people on here will be keen to follow a 'tip' a day for as long as they keep coming.

 

Might be better, too, if folk use other threads for their own tips to keep it clean.

 

It's the Lincoln tomorrow, and I'm sure there'll be plenty of fancies.

 

My pin is poised!

Missed the last one, well done on that! As Bolty said, fuck the moaners, you don't have to post them on here, and are not forcing people into backing them. Anyone with an ounce of sense knows full well you have to take the rough with the smooth.

 

You posted an arb which won me 75 quid risk free a bit back, got free bets too. Iirc it was some crap Romanian football game where Boyles had priced it wrong. Still owe you a jar or two for that.

 

Anyway, keep up the good work, it's much appreciated by me and no doubt plenty of others.

Aye, dodgy Bulgaian arbs are my fort?

Traf, are you hoping the winners dry up while you're away so you can lord it on your return?!!!

 

That goes without saying, doesn't it?

 

No, Matt (the guy who pays my wages!) knows far more than I could ever wish to and I think SotD will be in very safe hands.

Keep your eyes on the site for advice on the Lincoln and the Liverpool Festival, as they now like it to be known.

Another time (and the likes of Ani & CWP will testify, if they can remember!) I was getting slagged off because a good number of my selections went off quite short: the fact they kept winning and showing a profit was always countered by such gems as "any fucker can pick short priced favourites!"

 

It's true, any fucker can choose short priced favourites. Now stop messing around and get us some 20/1 shots

 

 

In all seriousness, some good 'uns this week. I've told Mrs CWP that she can now go and buy that fancy kettle she wants - rock and roll

Just had a small bet on today's SOTD. Good work thus far, C.

 

P.S, I've had a nice little bet of Chicago Grey for the national, after reading Matt's write up.

 

It's started to drift in since I initially backed it.

think he went a bit too late, had an E/W punt on Blown it in the 8:25

2nd for SotD: nothing was beating that winner tonight, no matter how early they'd set off for home.

 

I did the E/W double, but it paid next to fuck all.

Right, cockgobblers,

 

I've taken some of the 14/1 E/W (BOG from Paddy Potato) about Daring Indian in the 4.55 Doncaster.

 

This is a relatively unexposed 4yr old ( just 4 runs here plus 2 earlier in France)

Last time but won, he won over 10f at Kempton: this was a step up and earned a decent speed figure.

He went up 4lb for that and we can disregard a tame effort last time out as that was just a training excercise over a totally unsuitable 1.5 miles.

His first UK run was in October, so in honesty, all his form is on the A/W, but as an offspring from Juddmonte should take to turf without any great issues.

The dams other 3 foals who have raced so far have won 10 races, 2 of them at listed class & all with RPR's of 100+.

He's got a decent draw as long as he doesn't get boxed in and trainer Ian Williams remains in good form with 4 wins and only 3 out of the first 3 from last 15 runners.

Ryan Powell has not ridden this horse before but he is 5/17 for the yard in the last year.

 

OK, now I'm off to stick in a pin compile Saturday's Stat of the Day.

Saturday's SotD is now available: http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-of-the-day-31st-march-2012/

 

And we're sitting on a small E/W punt at 20/1 in the Lincoln on Mull of Killough from earlier in the week.