March 8, 201610 yr To be fair There's just under a quarter of the season left Fair play to anyone who sees the bet out and win but I don't blame any of them, as these are novelty punters and it's just too much
March 8, 201610 yr Aye, example du jour Garrp knew his business and expected to go close at the very least when he backed New Orleans. These are lads who've stuck a few quid on a no-hoper for a laugh and then been offered a fair bit more than a few grand to quit while they're absolutely fucking miles in front. They're only really losing twenty quid, but they're not really, are they? If someone gave me 29k and offered me 5/2 about Leicester hanging on, I'd not be in a rush to pile in.
March 8, 201610 yr You didn't lose £3600. You lost your stake money. The £3600 was a notional dream Mr Pedantic, I lost 3.6k in my mind.....shithouse
March 8, 201610 yr Mr Pedantic, I lost 3.6k in my mind.....shithouse your mind isn't broad enough to accommodate 3.6k....cockwomble
March 8, 201610 yr Imagine the poor cunt who laid Leicester on Betfair just to make £20! Don't think anyone would put £100k down in August to get £100,020 in May You could leave it in the bank and make £20 in interest in a day or two
March 8, 201610 yr Aye, example du jour Garrp knew his business and expected to go close at the very least when he backed New Orleans. These are lads who've stuck a few quid on a no-hoper for a laugh and then been offered a fair bit more than a few grand to quit while they're absolutely fucking miles in front. They're only really losing twenty quid, but they're not really, are they? If someone gave me 29k and offered me 5/2 about Leicester hanging on, I'd not be in a rush to pile in. was the Garp bet not more sentiment in 1) he supports them and 2) triumph in the face of adversity following hurricane katrina? seem to remember it being 28/1 - was good bet either way but seem to recall it wasn't so much based on form or owt if only Sober Dan hadn't battered Garp off wways, he could answer this one himself Edited March 8, 201610 yr by ZicoKelly
March 8, 201610 yr was the Garp bet not more sentiment in 1) he supports them and 2) triumph in the face of adversity following hurricane katrina? seem to remember it being 28/1 - was good bet either way but seem to recall it wasn't so much based on form or owt if only Sober Dan hadn't battered Garp off wways, he could answer this one himself he dind't batter him pal, he fucked him up good and proper animal
March 8, 201610 yr was the Garp bet not more sentiment in 1) he supports them and 2) triumph in the face of adversity following hurricane katrina? seem to remember it being 28/1 - was good bet either way but seem to recall it wasn't so much based on form or owt if only Sober Dan hadn't battered Garp off wways, he could answer this one himself No idea what his original motivation was but at the end he could have laid it off and taken about £20K profit but the right decision based on the odds was to leave it so he did. Any offer from a bookmaker is always weighted in their favour so buying it out is always the wrong call. Unless you have knowledge that would change the odds, (Say you found out Vardy and Mahrez were injured) The weird bit is someone sticking £50 on a joke bet not something you do unless you have money, sticking £50 on 5000/1 shots is only going end up badly !
March 8, 201610 yr The bookies aren't fucking arsed anyway. Claims of Leicester fans tucking them up good style is all bollocks. Decent odds compilers, like Garrp, have that book well balanced to cover every winner. Betfair alone have taken £20m on the title race. There's no way they're paying that much out on a Leicester win.
March 9, 201610 yr The £50 bet cashed out for £72,000 is actually worth a true cash-out figure of £108,000. So, whilst he's done well and walked away with a nice payout, the bookies have kept a third of it back.
March 9, 201610 yr Author The £50 bet cashed out for £72,000 is actually worth a true cash-out figure of £108,000. So, whilst he's done well and walked away with a nice payout, the bookies have kept a third of it back. How do they calculate the cash out figure as if he had gone the distance and won it would have been £250k
March 9, 201610 yr How do they calculate the cash out figure as if he had gone the distance and won it would have been £250k The one they offered or the true value?
March 9, 201610 yr I'd guess they start with a true value and at the time of offering the cashout, Leicester were around the 23/10 mark. To recoup his £250,000 profit at 23/10 takes a stake of just over £108,000, so that's the current value of his bet. As a cashout, my guess is that they have a sliding scale of a percentage based on the size of potential payout. So you might lose 10% of true value on a sub-£50 win, rising up to 30%+ once you clear £100k? Or they might just chance their arm, offer a shit amount and see if folk take it. Edited March 9, 201610 yr by Traf
March 9, 201610 yr Both The true value must be how much you would have to bet at current odds to get the projected return.
March 9, 201610 yr The true value must be how much you would have to bet at current odds to get the projected return. Agreed, which also has an overround (profit margin) hence Garps view of paying the bookie twice. I know you know that, just quoted as it contained the initial explanation for those who were asking
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