Sorry if this has been mentioned elsewhere, RIP Ms Widdecombe, a character of politics, no 78 year old woman deserves to suffer the horrendous death she apparently suffered, I met her when she was prison minister and she was very staff orientated but also campaigned for prisoners to be treated fairly

1 hour ago, bolty58 said:

"Far right fantasy". Can't decide whether to use 'fiddling whilst Rome burns' or 'the boy who cried wolf' or 'head in the sand'.

I'll combine the three just as long as the net result doesn't come out as 'fiddling with boys in the sand'.

I'll have you a £1000 wager right now that there's not a civil war in the UK in the next 5 years.

1 hour ago, kent_white said:

I'll have you a £1000 wager right now that there's not a civil war in the UK in the next 5 years.

You're a brave man!

You would have to lay down the rules about what exactly constitutes a "civil war" though, as either party could wriggle out of it.

As for the actual likelihood, when multiple academics say similar things, about a number of European countries, then that shouldn't be ignored by their governments.

Unfortunately, it seems that they are being, or at least not faced adequately.

4 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

You're a brave man!

You would have to lay down the rules about what exactly constitutes a "civil war" though, as either party could wriggle out of it.

As for the actual likelihood, when multiple academics say similar things, about a number of European countries, then that shouldn't be ignored by their governments.

Unfortunately, it seems that they are being, or at least not faced adequately.

I'll bet you at he same time if you like?

Here's a working definition from AI. If you and Bolty are both happy with this as a working definition - then I'm all in.

If there's someone willing to act as arbitrator?

Intensity — the violence must be protracted and sustained, not sporadic riots or isolated clashes

Organization — the non-state party must have some command structure, ability to plan and carry out sustained operations, and control over territory or people

30 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

You're a brave man!

You would have to lay down the rules about what exactly constitutes a "civil war" though, as either party could wriggle out of it.

As for the actual likelihood, when multiple academics say similar things, about a number of European countries, then that shouldn't be ignored by their governments.

Unfortunately, it seems that they are being, or at least not faced adequately.

Reason number one it’ll never happen. Neither ‘side’ are fucking armed for starters.

Don’t need number 2.

1. Is that a genuine reason, or a jest? What do you mean by arms? The academics' comments suggest that is somewhat academic. A knife, club, tool can all be used as a weapon. As can a vehicle, fuel etc.

2. In some quarters there are concerns that arms (guns and explosives) are available. It's not like they have never been used before.

Of course such things as discussed by these chaps aren't an exact science, nevertheless, given their expertise, and the platform (the EU) there may be something in it.

I would imagine security services may also utilise studies by these sorts of people.

50 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

Reason number one it’ll never happen. Neither ‘side’ are fucking armed for starters.

Don’t need number 2.

Number 3. It will rain and no-one will go outside

27 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

1. Is that a genuine reason, or a jest? What do you mean by arms? The academics' comments suggest that is somewhat academic. A knife, club, tool can all be used as a weapon. As can a vehicle, fuel etc.

2. In some quarters there are concerns that arms (guns and explosives) are available. It's not like they have never been used before.

Of course such things as discussed by these chaps aren't an exact science, nevertheless, given their expertise, and the platform (the EU) there may be something in it.

I would imagine security services may also utilise studies by these sorts of people.

It's not a study though - it's an essay.

There's no dataset, no statistical modeling, no tested inputs and no methodology.

And it's very much one voice. And even people in his own institution are rebutting him.

It's just been picked up and sensationalised. Like these things almost always are.

Edited 5 hours ago5 hr by kent_white

13 minutes ago, kent_white said:

It's not a study though - it's an essay.

There's no dataset, no statistical modeling, no tested inputs and no methodology.

And it's very much one voice. And even people in his own institution are rebutting him.

It's just been picked up and sensationalised. Like these things almost always are.

You can explain why it's utter bollocks till the cows come home, but GBNews viewers like TMGJ will still swallow it hook, line and sinker.

Maybe it’s some lunatic with a grudge against her for some policy she helped implement years ago that affected a member of his family.

The reaction from reform is absolutely gleeful, their prayers have been answered in terms of having something to bury the Clacton debacle.

The likes of Tice and Zia are all but wanking into her coffin at this point.

3 minutes ago, Cheese said:

You can explain why it's utter bollocks till the cows come home, but GBNews viewers like TMGJ will still swallow it hook, line and sinker.

I wouldn't dismiss it as utter bollocks per se. The guy is learned in his field. So it's worth listening to him - even if that's just as a warning about the way things could theoretically end up unless we start listening to each other and finding some common ground.

But I just can't see it. And neither can a lot of other academics. And I doubt the security services can either. Although I'm sure they plan for it.

Isolated periods of unrest - almost certainly. Civil war. Hugely unlikely.

3 hours ago, athywhite1958 said:

old, yes, thick racist ghoul? you need to get your facts right, oh it doesn't matter because you make everything up like one of your fantasies

What did he say that was racist?

10 hours ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

There are clips (and full video) of a group of experts in the EU discussing the potential for civil war.

Eoin Linehan, David Betz, and another chap o don't know the name of, explaining how we got here, and the likelihood.

Extremely stark, with the experts saying the UK, Ireland and Sweden are the most likely to go first, and that would trigger other nations to follow.

I would imagine France wouldn't be too far behind.

Not anytime soon

Though the way the worlds heading due to climate change, anything is possible. What folk often fail to see is that much of the mass migration we are seeing the world over is due to the climate crisis.

Problem also is that a lot of muppets deflect and excuse the vile racists rioting and burning people out of homes by saying it's the 'establishments' fault for allowing immigration etc. etc.

When we see civil unrest happening it's those carrying out the violence and stirring the pot that should be held to account. Nobody else.

We need to crack down harder. Round them up and lock them up in a shared cell with a radical Islamist. Leave them to fight it out. And anyone sharing addresses of innocent immigrants online needs locking up as well. Too easy for them to stir it up and hide when folk get violent.

There's another video circulating online of some lads rocking up to a lovely picnic spot in the peak district and setting up a mass deportations now stall. The lad filming can be blatantly seen wandering around saying we've come here because it doesn't look like England anymore. Simply because there were a lot of Sikh and Muslim families there eating a picnic.

What a shite state of affairs when folk can just brazenly walk around acting the racist prick. This country doesn't belong to him because he's white.

2 hours ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

You're a brave man!

You would have to lay down the rules about what exactly constitutes a "civil war" though, as either party could wriggle out of it.

As for the actual likelihood, when multiple academics say similar things, about a number of European countries, then that shouldn't be ignored by their governments.

Unfortunately, it seems that they are being, or at least not faced adequately.

I would like to think a civil war is not on the cards... but I do see a lot of similarities with AD463 (I think) and the fall of the Holy Roman Empire...

Uncontrolled influx of foreigners

Political instability

Over taxation

Military underfunding

Learn from history chaps... there really is nothing new in rock and roll

10 hours ago, kent_white said:

I'l think it's fair to say they are fringe opinions

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/civil-war-in-the-uk-nightmare-or-far-right-fantasy/

aye

this betz guy was talking about how it would be like Sarajevo in Tower Hamlets

just nonsense

5 hours ago, bolty58 said:

Not months no. It will come though.

unrest, yes, it's already happening, it'll get worst too probably, unless we win the world cup

war, no

3 hours ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

You would have to lay down the rules about what exactly constitutes a "civil war" though, as either party could wriggle out of it

why don't we go with the definition that Betz goes with in the video you brought up that that took us on this tangent

below is an AI summary of what he thinks it would look like

I'll take this bet also

No Front Lines: Instead of organized battlefield clashes, the conflict would manifest as decentralized, irregular warfare—characterized by street violence, localized blockades, and neighborhood turf wars.

A "Shock of the Old": The fighting would strip away modern notions of "clean" technological warfare, reverting to brutal, low-tech siege tactics. Factions would focus on cutting off basic resources like water, food supplies, and heating to force opponents into submission.

"Hi-Lo" Infrastructure Sabotage: Combatants would pair readily available consumer technology (like commercial drones and off-the-shelf cyber tools) with basic weapons to easily sabotage vulnerable, centralized infrastructure like power grids, communication networks, and transport links.

Proliferation of Localized Factions: The collapse of social cohesion would give rise to competing domestic militias, ethnic enclaves, criminal syndicates, and ideological paramilitaries all vying for territorial control.

The "Fortress State": A weakened government would lose the ability to police the entire country. Instead, the state would retreat into securing heavily fortified, critical zones (like government capitals or key financial centers), leaving the rest of the country to fend for itself.

9 minutes ago, Zico said:

unrest, yes, it's already happening, it'll get worst too probably, unless we win the world cup

war, no

The weirdest thing is how some people (including I suspect, some people of here) are actively hoping for it. Like it would be a good thing.

My mind boggles.

2 hours ago, kent_white said:

I wouldn't dismiss it as utter bollocks per se. The guy is learned in his field. So it's worth listening to him - even if that's just as a warning about the way things could theoretically end up unless we start listening to each other and finding some common ground.

But I just can't see it. And neither can a lot of other academics. And I doubt the security services can either. Although I'm sure they plan for it.

Isolated periods of unrest - almost certainly. Civil war. Hugely unlikely.

Nah. It’s utter bollocks with bollock shaped cherries and tiny bollock hundreds and thousands of sprinkled on top.

2 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

Nah. It’s utter bollocks with bollock shaped cherries and tiny bollock hundreds and thousands of sprinkled on top.

What colour hundreds and thousands? 😁

6 minutes ago, kent_white said:

What colour hundreds and thousands? 😁

Bollock coloured

I go walking in the countryside around Bolton most days as I'm now retired, and there's a massive increase in Asian people out walking and making the most of it. I'm not making that up by the way and seeing it with my own eyes and ears. They're telling me that the previous generation/s have just not been comfortable with it for whatever reason. It's good to see as long as they're not dropping litter all over the show, like a lot of people of all cultures seem to be doing more than ever. Don't get me started on fly tipping btw.

Edited 1 hour ago1 hr by Alf Hartigan
I don't know what this has got to do with Anne Widycombe 🤔